Contrast with last season and the eventual 'greyed out' Clubs, only relegated Rotherham can't catch us.
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Elimination Table and others up and running
- Thread starter Andy S
- Start date
Apologies for the delay - I've been away enjoying a few days of complete peace and quiet in the depths of the Suffolk countryside...
So here is my updated graphic. Working from the top:
So here is my updated graphic. Working from the top:
- only 4 teams can go up automatically
- everyone down to Sunderland can still (in theory) make the play-offs but I think only those down to Preston have any real hope of doing so
- everyone from Preston upwards is safe from relegation
- so every team apart from Rotherham still has something to play for at the moment (but that will soon change a lot)
- I think that every time up to and including Swansea is still in the relegation mix, so that is 2 teams to go down from a total of 9 possibles (theoretically Watford, Sunderland, Bristol City and Cardiff City can still go down but I am sure that they won't)
- if we beat QPR on Tuesday night and Blackburn don't win their game then we will move above Swansea into 15th place...
- ...but if we lose on Tuesday then by the end of Wednesday we could be second from bottom
- we have a great chance with our games against QPR, Stoke and Millwall - these are all genuine 6 pointers
- so it's very tight, very complicated and potentially very nerve-shredding... how about we just win on Tuesday eh?
I just remembered that I usually grey out any teams that can no longer catch us or that we can no longer catch so here's a revised version. From now onwards everything is going to become increasingly grey, hopefully below our green bar rather than above it...
Need some South Wales wins tommorrow, (feel a bit sick supporting the Welsh)
A quick update after the games on Tuesday evening (9th April). There's not too much change at the bottom - Birmingham drop a place (but play Cardiff on Wednesday), Sheffield Wednesday and Argyle both gain a point on Huddersfield (who also lost -3 on their goal difference) but Millwall's stunning result against Leicester saw them climb above Argyle, Blackburn and Stoke - but if we beat them in the penultimate game of the season we can make up the gap. Obviously things will change again after tomorrow evenings games - Birmingham v Cardiff, Bristol City v Blackburn and Swansea v Stoke are the ones that count - the first two are very difficult to predict I think and the last one is interesting: do we want Swansea to win to leave Stoke just one point ahead of us or a draw to keep them both within reach. On balance, I think a Swansea win would be the best outcome for Argyle.
It's interesting to notice from Matt's list of remaining fixtures that QPR have by far the hardest set of fixtures on paper as their opposition currently has an average league position of 6.75 (by contrast the position of Swansea's remaining opponents averages out at 17.4 and Argyle's at 11.75). I've just spent a few minutes working out the average points per game gained by the team currently occupying each position and then used these to make an estimate of the points that a team playing all of their remaining fixtures against a team at that level might be expected to get. It was a close run thing but my final standings ended up like this:
Swansea 52-56 points
Stoke 51-55 points
Millwall 51-52 points
QPR 50-53 points
Blackburn 50-51 points
Argyle 49-50 points
Birmingham 48-51 points
--------
Huddersfield 47-48 points
Sheffield Wed 47-48 points
So we end up safe - just.
Or doing things the other way round, the final points total for the bottom teams based on their points per game so far work out like this:
Swansea 52.7
Blackburn 51.6
QPR 51.5
Millwall 51.5
Stoke 50.4
Argyle 49.3
Birmingham 47.1
--------
Huddersfield 47.1
Sheffield Weds 47.1
In both cases we finish in 20th place with Birmingham immediately below us and with Huddersfield and Sheffield Wednesday the teams to drop.
... and relax ...
(but don't expect to do so until the final whistle of the Hull game has been blown!)
Swansea 52-56 points
Stoke 51-55 points
Millwall 51-52 points
QPR 50-53 points
Blackburn 50-51 points
Argyle 49-50 points
Birmingham 48-51 points
--------
Huddersfield 47-48 points
Sheffield Wed 47-48 points
So we end up safe - just.
Or doing things the other way round, the final points total for the bottom teams based on their points per game so far work out like this:
Swansea 52.7
Blackburn 51.6
QPR 51.5
Millwall 51.5
Stoke 50.4
Argyle 49.3
Birmingham 47.1
--------
Huddersfield 47.1
Sheffield Weds 47.1
In both cases we finish in 20th place with Birmingham immediately below us and with Huddersfield and Sheffield Wednesday the teams to drop.
... and relax ...
(but don't expect to do so until the final whistle of the Hull game has been blown!)
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Update after April 10th games
Code:
Team PL GD PTS MAX HIGH LOW
1 Leicester 41 42 88 103 1 5 Playoffs
2 Ipswich T. 42 32 88 100 1 5 Playoffs
------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Leeds U. 42 43 87 99 1 5 Playoffs
4 Southampton 40 26 78 96 1 8 Can not be relegated
5 West Bromwich 42 25 72 84 4 11 Can not be relegated
6 Norwich C. 42 15 68 80 4 13 Can not be relegated
----------------------------------------------------------------------
7 Coventry C. 41 17 63 78 4 15 Can not be relegated
8 Preston N. E. 41 0 63 78 4 15 Can not be relegated
9 Middlesbrough 42 5 62 74 5 15 Can not be relegated
10 Hull C. 41 5 62 77 5 15 Can not be relegated
11 Cardiff C. 42 -10 59 71 6 16 Can not be relegated
12 Bristol C. 42 4 57 69 6 20 Can not be relegated
13 Sunderland 42 1 53 65 7 23 Can not be Promoted
14 Watford 41 2 51 66 7 23 Can not be Promoted
15 Swansea C. 42 -10 50 62 10 23 Can not be Promoted
16 Queens Park R. 42 -14 47 59 11 23 Can not be Promoted
17 Millwall 42 -15 47 59 11 23 Can not be Promoted
18 Blackburn R. 42 -15 46 58 11 23 Can not be Promoted
19 Stoke C. 42 -19 46 58 11 23 Can not be Promoted
20 Plymouth A. 42 -9 45 57 12 23 Can not be Promoted
21 Huddersfield T. 42 -23 43 55 13 23 Can not be Promoted
---------------------------------------------------------------------
22 Sheffield W. 42 -31 43 55 13 23 Can not be Promoted
23 Birmingham C. 42 -19 42 54 13 23 Can not be Promoted
24 Rotherham U. 42 -52 23 35 24 24 RELEGATED
Last edited:
Up with Welsh 🤮
Another set of games gone, and now one fewer for people to catch us. Swansea I think are now safe, but still play a huge part in who goes down based on their fixtures.
Apr 20 is going to be a key weekend based on the fixtures and I don’t think this will go to the last game for us, away at Stoke & Millwall will decide things.
Another set of games gone, and now one fewer for people to catch us. Swansea I think are now safe, but still play a huge part in who goes down based on their fixtures.
Apr 20 is going to be a key weekend based on the fixtures and I don’t think this will go to the last game for us, away at Stoke & Millwall will decide things.
This was a more enjoyable update to make...
As Mat has noted, Cardiff and Swansea gave us a great present last night and we can no longer catch Cardiff (how is such a mediocre team 14 points ahead of us?). Bristol City also did a good job of battering one of our rivals - it's astonishing to realise that almost 20% of Bristol City's goals have come in just two games, namely their home games against Argyle and Blackburn.
I don't think QPR can count themselves as being safe yet especially as they have the hardest set of fixtures on paper (against the highest ranked teams). Blackburn also have to play away at Leeds and Leicester so whilst they are currently sitting in 18th place they will do well to stay there.
The three teams immediately below us all need to win a game to pass us thanks to our superior goal difference and the same would apply to Stoke and Millwall if we were able to beat them. If we do lose on Friday, which let's face it is fairly likely, I just hope we don't collapse and concede too many, because goal difference really is worth an extra point to us as things stand.
Stoke v Sheffield Wednesday is a key game on Saturday. Part of me wants the Owls to win as that makes our game against Stoke even more useful but I guess a Stoke win is the best result really as that should then mean that one more win for us effectively eliminates SW.
But first we have to get through Friday evening. Who knows, perhaps we'll get a super-duper bonus surprise...
As Mat has noted, Cardiff and Swansea gave us a great present last night and we can no longer catch Cardiff (how is such a mediocre team 14 points ahead of us?). Bristol City also did a good job of battering one of our rivals - it's astonishing to realise that almost 20% of Bristol City's goals have come in just two games, namely their home games against Argyle and Blackburn.
I don't think QPR can count themselves as being safe yet especially as they have the hardest set of fixtures on paper (against the highest ranked teams). Blackburn also have to play away at Leeds and Leicester so whilst they are currently sitting in 18th place they will do well to stay there.
The three teams immediately below us all need to win a game to pass us thanks to our superior goal difference and the same would apply to Stoke and Millwall if we were able to beat them. If we do lose on Friday, which let's face it is fairly likely, I just hope we don't collapse and concede too many, because goal difference really is worth an extra point to us as things stand.
Stoke v Sheffield Wednesday is a key game on Saturday. Part of me wants the Owls to win as that makes our game against Stoke even more useful but I guess a Stoke win is the best result really as that should then mean that one more win for us effectively eliminates SW.
But first we have to get through Friday evening. Who knows, perhaps we'll get a super-duper bonus surprise...
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Update after April 12th game
Code:
Team PL GD PTS MAX HIGH LOW
1 Leicester 42 41 88 100 1 5 Playoffs
2 Ipswich T. 42 32 88 100 1 5 Playoffs
------------------------------------------------------------------
3 Leeds U. 42 43 87 99 1 5 Playoffs
4 Southampton 40 26 78 96 1 8 Can not be relegated
5 West Bromwich 42 25 72 84 4 11 Can not be relegated
6 Norwich C. 42 15 68 80 4 13 Can not be relegated
----------------------------------------------------------------------
7 Coventry C. 41 17 63 78 4 15 Can not be relegated
8 Preston N. E. 41 0 63 78 4 15 Can not be relegated
9 Middlesbrough 42 5 62 74 5 15 Can not be relegated
10 Hull C. 41 5 62 77 5 15 Can not be relegated
11 Cardiff C. 42 -10 59 71 6 16 Can not be relegated
12 Bristol C. 42 4 57 69 6 20 Can not be relegated
13 Sunderland 42 1 53 65 7 23 Can not be Promoted
14 Watford 41 2 51 66 7 23 Can not be Promoted
15 Swansea C. 42 -10 50 62 10 23 Can not be Promoted
16 Plymouth A. 43 -8 48 57 12 23 Can not be Promoted
17 Queens Park R. 42 -14 47 59 11 23 Can not be Promoted
18 Millwall 42 -15 47 59 11 23 Can not be Promoted
19 Blackburn R. 42 -15 46 58 11 23 Can not be Promoted
20 Stoke C. 42 -19 46 58 11 23 Can not be Promoted
21 Huddersfield T. 42 -23 43 55 13 23 Can not be Promoted
---------------------------------------------------------------------
22 Sheffield W. 42 -31 43 55 13 23 Can not be Promoted
23 Birmingham C. 42 -19 42 54 13 23 Can not be Promoted
24 Rotherham U. 42 -52 23 35 24 24 RELEGATED
I don’t think this goes to the last game. I think a Stoke win is the best for us, keeps Wednesday further away.
I agree with Mat - I'll be surprised if we still in need of a point or more from the Hull game. Our goal difference is the killer weapon.
As things stand, Birmingham, Sheffield Wednesday and Huddersfield need positive results from at least two of their remaining four games (three in Birmingham's case) and at least one of those results has to be a win (Birmingham can overtake us with a win and three draws). That's assuming that we gain no more points - zero. To make matters even better, Birmingham and Huddersfield play each other so can't both win that one and Huddersfield have to travel to Ipswich for their last game where their hosts will surely be needing something from the game to try to ensure promotion. So they are all now pretty much in a situation where they have almost no room for error (in terms of whether they can catch Argyle).
Add to this the fact that we still have the opportunity to take points from Stoke and Millwall and that Blackburn have to play Leeds, Sheffield Wednesday, Coventry and Leicester (so only one easy game, but they may be relegated by the time they get to play it on 3rd May...).
Of course, we mustn't be complacent at all, there is still some work to be done, but I strongly suspect that we have now done the hard lifting part and most of the rest of the work is now going to be done for us by other teams.
My suspicion is that Sheffield Wednesday will do enough to stay up. I think they'll beat Stoke this afternoon and win their next game away at Blackburn. I reckon Huddersfield will probably lose three of the four games and perhaps only get something from Birmingham. I think one of Birmingham, Blackburn, Stoke and Millwall will be the third team to go down - mostly like one of the B teams.
The real question is: Can we hold our position in the middle eight of the league? I think that would be a finish that would surpass most people's realistic expectation at the start of the season.
As things stand, Birmingham, Sheffield Wednesday and Huddersfield need positive results from at least two of their remaining four games (three in Birmingham's case) and at least one of those results has to be a win (Birmingham can overtake us with a win and three draws). That's assuming that we gain no more points - zero. To make matters even better, Birmingham and Huddersfield play each other so can't both win that one and Huddersfield have to travel to Ipswich for their last game where their hosts will surely be needing something from the game to try to ensure promotion. So they are all now pretty much in a situation where they have almost no room for error (in terms of whether they can catch Argyle).
Add to this the fact that we still have the opportunity to take points from Stoke and Millwall and that Blackburn have to play Leeds, Sheffield Wednesday, Coventry and Leicester (so only one easy game, but they may be relegated by the time they get to play it on 3rd May...).
Of course, we mustn't be complacent at all, there is still some work to be done, but I strongly suspect that we have now done the hard lifting part and most of the rest of the work is now going to be done for us by other teams.
My suspicion is that Sheffield Wednesday will do enough to stay up. I think they'll beat Stoke this afternoon and win their next game away at Blackburn. I reckon Huddersfield will probably lose three of the four games and perhaps only get something from Birmingham. I think one of Birmingham, Blackburn, Stoke and Millwall will be the third team to go down - mostly like one of the B teams.
The real question is: Can we hold our position in the middle eight of the league? I think that would be a finish that would surpass most people's realistic expectation at the start of the season.
A roller-coaster of a day, Swansea now essentially safe. One more win, and Huddersfield and Wednesday both need to win their last three, that would mean Birmingham can only get 6 pts.
Avoid defeat in both our next 2 away games will go a very long way towards survival.
No team can get relegated until the penultimate game. We would be safe with a win at Stoke and aforementioned Huddersfield and Sheffield fail to win. Birmingham are pretty much in with those two due to our currently superior goal difference.