Elimination Table and others up and running

[jimbogreen]

Great summary @cheshiregreen. Hopefully the fact that Millwall are safe means they are a bit more relaxed. Hull really depends on if they have something to play for or not. They're 6 points off a play off spot, but have a game in hand.

Blackburn have an awful last three games and if we can get a draw in one match they could easily lose all three of them. But this season nothing has gone to script so who knows!

 

[cheshiregreen]

Great summary @cheshiregreen. Hopefully the fact that Millwall are safe means they are a bit more relaxed. Hull really depends on if they have something to play for or not. They're 6 points off a play off spot, but have a game in hand.

Blackburn have an awful last three games and if we can get a draw in one match they could easily lose all three of them. But this season nothing has gone to script so who knows!

Thanks for the compliment, but, it's not my work.

 

[The Doctor]

Ah well - things just got a whole bit worse... I've worked through all of the possibilities for the remaining two games and I think I have things right below (I've not worked through cases where we end up level on points and on goal difference). If I was a QPR or Stoke I would not be relaxing yet, especially as both of these teams have two games that they could very easily lose still to play.

If pick up no more points then we need two of the following to happen:

• Huddersfield fail to win both of their games (they could draw one game and win the other with a big change in goal difference relative to us but that's unlikely to happen)
• Birmingham fail to win one of their games or draw both games while we lose by more than 5 goals in total across the two games
• Sheffield Wednesday only manage a single draw from their games

If we gain a single point more then we need two of the following to happen:

• Huddersfield fail to win both of their games
• Birmingham lose a game or draw both of their games (assuming our goal difference advantage remains)
• Sheffield Wednesday fail to win one of their games (assuming our goal difference advantage remains)
• Blackburn lose both of their games (assuming our goal difference advantage remains)

If we gain two points we need one of:

• Birmingham fail to win both of their games (or draw one and win one by more than a 5 goal margin)
• Sheffield Wednesday lose a game or draw both of their games
• Blackburn fail to win one or draw both of their games
• QPR lose both of their games
• Stoke lose both of their games

If we get three points we need one of:

• Birmingham fail to win both of their games
• Sheffield Wednesday fail to win both of their games (assuming our goal difference advantage remains if they win one and draw one)
• QPR fail to win one or draw both of their games (assuming our goal difference advantage remains if they draw just one)
• Stoke fail to win one or draw both of their games (assuming our goal difference advantage remains if they draw just one)

If we get four points we need one of:

• Birmingham fail to win both of their games and gain at least +5 goal difference on us in the process
• Sheffield Wednesday fail to win both of their games
• QPR fail to win both of their games
• Stoke fail to win both of their games

If we get six points then we are guaranteed safety regardless of other results!

 

[Mat]

Need to get at least a point to get above Blackburn who may not win again.
The Doctor did the hard graft on this update.

 

[Ottawa Green]

Update after April 22nd games

Team        PL        GD        PTS     MAX     HIGH            LOW

1   Leicester        43         41        91     100      1               5        Playoffs
2   Leeds U.         44         43        90      96      1               5        Playoffs
 
------------------------------------------------------------------
3   Ipswich T.       44         31        89      95      1               5        Playoffs
4   Southampton      43         29        84      93      1               5        Can not be relegated
5   West Bromwich    44         23        72      78      5               9        Can not be relegated
6   Norwich C.       44         16        72      78      5               9        Can not be relegated
----------------------------------------------------------------------
7  Hull C.           43          8        66      75      5              11        Can not be relegated
8  Coventry C.       42         14        63      75      5              12        Can not be relegated
9  Middlesbrough     44          4        63      69      5              12        Can not be promoted
10  Preston N. E.    44         -5        63      69      7              12        Safe
11  Cardiff C.       44        -11        62      68      7              14        Safe
12  Bristol C.       44          4        59      65      8              17        Safe
13  Sunderland       44          1        56      62      7              18        Safe
14  Swansea C.       44         -5        56      62     11              18        Safe
15  Watford          44          1        53      59     12              21        Can not be Promoted
16  Millwall         44        -12        53      59     12              21        Can not be Promoted
17  Stoke C.         44        -16        50      56     13              23        Can not be Promoted
18  Queens Park R.   44        -16        50      56     13              23        Can not be Promoted
19  Blackburn R.     44        -16        49      55     15              23        Can not be Promoted
20  Plymouth A.      44        -11        48      54     15              23        Can not be Promoted
21  Sheffield W.     44        -29        47      53     15              23        Can not be Promoted
 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

22  Birmingham C.    44        -16        46      52     18              23        Can not be Promoted
23  Huddersfield T.  44        -27        44      50     18              23        Can not be Promoted
24  Rotherham U.     44        -53        24      30     24              24        RELEGATED

 

[djg145]

With Huddersfield and Birmingham playing each other on Saturday, surely if one loses they are relegated?

 

[The Doctor]

With Huddersfield and Birmingham playing each other on Saturday, surely if one loses they are relegated?

Not quite...

If HT lose then yes, they will be relegated because the only team they could then overtake would be SW (if SW lose both of their remaining games) and they need to catch two teams for safety.

If BC lose then they will definitely still be able to catch HT and they may be able to catch SW, PA and BR depending on those teams results.

 

[Mark Smith]

A draw in that game would be by far the best result for us.

Huddersfield could not then overtake us, given the GD, and Birmingham would need to beat Norwich.

The big question is what would be the second-best result?

Discounting Stoke and QPR (for now), a win for HT would put us in a mini-league of five for two relegation spots. More likely is a win for BC that would put us in a mini-league of four for one spot.

 

[Jon with no H]

A draw in that game would be by far the best result for us.

Huddersfield could not then overtake us, given the GD, and Birmingham would need to beat Norwich.

The big question is what would be the second-best result?

Discounting Stoke and QPR (for now), a win for HT would put us in a mini-league of five for two relegation spots. More likely is a win for BC that would put us in a mini-league of four for one spot.

I have been going back and forth on this, but (right now!) I think a Huddersfield win would be second best because they'd both still be below Argyle, regardless of the result at Millwall.

 

[Mark Smith]

I have been going back and forth on this, but (right now!) I think a Huddersfield win would be second best because they'd both still be below Argyle, regardless of the result at Millwall.

And Birmingham's GD would worsen. But I do think Huddersfield are in free-fall now.

 

[Jon with no H]

And Birmingham's GD would worsen. But I do think Huddersfield are in free-fall now.

True. Huddersfield have had some real hammer blows in the past three games, but before that they beat Millwall and drew with Stoke.

There can be no crazier league in the world, I won't hear of it!

 

[warney]

My brain hurts!

 

[Nick Prideaux]

Millwall permutations:

Argyle draw - goes to last game regardless other results

Argyle lose & Sheff Wed and Brum win - out of our hands; we are in bottom 3 & will rely on other results in final game and minimum of 1 point vs Hull to survive

Argyle win - virtually or certainly safe unless Sheff Wed and Brum both win in which case goes to last game of season.

 

[Mark Smith]

It is interesting to see how everything is tightening up at the top of the table, given that our relegation rivals still have quite a lot of interaction with promotion and playoff contenders (nicely summarised in Mat's table). We also want Hull's hopes of the playoffs extinguished asap.

Take tonight's game: an away win for Southampton would spur on Leeds (to play QPR) and Ipswich (Hull and Hudds) both because they could catch Leicester, and because Southampton are at their heels. And it would encourage Southampton (Stoke) and scare Leicester (BBR). Of course, a home win for Leicester would also spur on Leeds and Ipswich, but they wouldn't be as worried about the Saints.

Then there's tomorrow's game: a home win in Coventry-Hull would be a kick up the backside for WBA (SW) and Norwich (Brum) while - almost - ending Hull's playoff hopes. Cov would then really be going for it vs QPR and BBR.

Etc. etc.

 

[Ottawa Green]

Update after April 26th games

Team        PL        GD        PTS     MAX     HIGH            LOW

1   Leicester        44         46        94     100      1               5        Promoted
2   Leeds U.         45         39        90      93      1               5        Playoffs
 
------------------------------------------------------------------
3   Ipswich T.       43         32        89      95      1               5        Playoffs
4   Southampton      44         24        84      90      2               5        Can not be relegated
5   West Bromwich    44         23        72      78      5               9        Can not be relegated
6   Norwich C.       44         16        72      78      5               9        Can not be relegated
----------------------------------------------------------------------
7  Hull C.           44          9        69      75      5              11        Can not be relegated
8  Coventry C.       43         13        63      72      5              12        Can not be relegated
9  Middlesbrough     44          4        63      69      7              12        Safe
10  Preston N. E.    44         -5        63      69      7              12        Safe
11  Cardiff C.       44        -11        62      68      7              14        Safe
12  Bristol C.       44          4        59      65      8              17        Safe
13  Sunderland       44          1        56      62     11              18        Safe
14  Swansea C.       44         -5        56      62     11              18        Safe
15  Watford          44          1        53      59     12              21        Safe
16  Millwall         44        -12        53      59     12              21        Safe
17  Queens Park R.   45        -12        53      56     14              21        Safe
18  Stoke C.         44        -16        50      56     13              23        Can not be Promoted
19  Blackburn R.     44        -16        49      55     15              23        Can not be Promoted
20  Plymouth A.      44        -11        48      54     15              23        Can not be Promoted
21  Sheffield W.     44        -29        47      53     15              23        Can not be Promoted
 

---------------------------------------------------------------------

22  Birmingham C.    44        -16        46      52     18              23        Can not be Promoted
23  Huddersfield T.  44        -27        44      50     18              23        Can not be Promoted
24  Rotherham U.     44        -53        24      30     24              24        RELEGATED