Elimination Table and others up and running

[The Doctor]

Here's the picture after today's games (Saturday 24th February) - I've corrected the graphic so that there are now only 3 relegation places...

That was an important win today as 5 of the 7 teams that started the day below us also won. Overall, it was a very bad day for Stoke City who, along with Rotherham, failed to win or draw and drop into the third relegation spot on goal difference. They should be worried because Sheffield Wednesday and QPR have both found some form and are picking up points. Of course, we're not out of the woods either but it's positive that there are so many teams below us, even though the points range isn't great, as they can't all win all of their games.

In theory, all 24 teams, including Rotherham can still get into the play-offs (the dotted black lines) and all but the bottom 4 can still gain automatic promotion. Leicester have lost two on the bounce and Southampton seem to have gone on a sudden nosedive allowing Leeds and Ipswich to pull away from them a little. Ipswich are on a run of four wins and visit Home Park next... It would be nice if we could attach ourselves the group of four teams directly above us in the table (Cardiff, Middlesbrough, Bristol City and Watford) but there's a four point gap between us and all of them so if that does happen it'll not be for at least a couple of weeks. Otherwise, it's looking like there is a mini-league of 9 teams competing to not join Rotherham in League 1 next season and currently we are top of that league!

 

[John Cooper]

Ottawa, are you publishing yours after the weekends results?

 

[Ottawa Green]

Pos    Team            P         GD        Pts    Max      Highest        Lowest
1    Leicester        34         41        78     114      1              15        Can not be relegated
2    Leeds U.         34         37        72     108      1              20        Can not be relegated
----------------------------------------------------------------------
3    Ipswich T.       34         23        72     108      1              20        Can not be relegated
4    Southampton      34         23        67     103      1              23
5    West Bromwich    34         17        56      92      1              23
6    Hull C.          34          7        55      91      1              24
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
7    Norwich C.       34          8        52      88      1              24
8     Preston N. E.   34         -5        52      88      1              24
9     Coventry C.     34         11        51      87      1              24
10   Sunderland       34          7        47      83      1              24
11   Watford          34          3        44      80      1              24
12   Bristol C.       34          0        44      80      1              24
13   Middlesbrough    33         -2        44      83      1              24
14   Cardiff C.       34         -9        44      80      1              24
15   Plymouth A.      34         -4        40      76      2              24
16   Blackburn R.     34         -9        40      76      2              24
17   Swansea C.       34        -12        39      75      2              24
18   Birmingham C.    33        -13        38      77      2              24
19   Huddersfield T.  34        -15        37      73      2              24
20   Millwall         34        -14        36      72      3              24
21   Queens Park R.   34        -13        35      71      4              24
---------------------------------------------------------------
22   Stoke C.         34        -17        35      71      4              24
23   Sheffield W.     34        -25        32      68      4              24
24   Rotherham U.     34        -36        19      55      6              24

 

[Ottawa Green]

Ottawa, are you publishing yours after the weekends results?

Yer tis

 

[Lancastergreen]

Pos    Team            P         GD        Pts    Max      Highest        Lowest
1    Leicester        34         41        78     114      1              15        Can not be relegated
2    Leeds U.         34         37        72     108      1              20        Can not be relegated
----------------------------------------------------------------------
3    Ipswich T.       34         23        72     108      1              20        Can not be relegated
4    Southampton      34         23        67     103      1              23
5    West Bromwich    34         17        56      92      1              23
6    Hull C.          34          7        55      91      1              24
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
7    Norwich C.       34          8        52      88      1              24
8     Preston N. E.   34         -5        52      88      1              24
9     Coventry C.     34         11        51      87      1              24
10   Sunderland       34          7        47      83      1              24
11   Watford          34          3        44      80      1              24
12   Bristol C.       34          0        44      80      1              24
13   Middlesbrough    33         -2        44      83      1              24
14   Cardiff C.       34         -9        44      80      1              24
15   Plymouth A.      34         -4        40      76      2              24
16   Blackburn R.     34         -9        40      76      2              24
17   Swansea C.       34        -12        39      75      2              24
18   Birmingham C.    33        -13        38      77      2              24
19   Huddersfield T.  34        -15        37      73      2              24
20   Millwall         34        -14        36      72      3              24
21   Queens Park R.   34        -13        35      71      4              24
---------------------------------------------------------------
22   Stoke C.         34        -17        35      71      4              24
23   Sheffield W.     34        -25        32      68      4              24
24   Rotherham U.     34        -36        19      55      6              24

This is the one I prefer

 

[The Doctor]

Here's my updated graphic after today's fixtures (Saturday 2nd March) - obviously it does not make such good reading.

Every team from Argyle downwards is now out of the automatic promotion hunt and the top three are now safe from relegation. It's incredible that after the next round of fixtures during the week ahead any one of seven teams, including Argyle, could find themselves in the third relegation spot and Sheffield Wednesday's form is such that they could now easily reach safety in the remaining games. Swansea are also still in the mix at the bottom, and perhaps even Middlesbrough, Bristol City and Watford could find themselves drawn into trouble if they don't start to pick up points soon. I think that it's important to consider that with so many teams so closely packed towards the bottom of the table they cannot all win as there will be a lot of games between the. With this in mind Argyle's game at home to QPR and the games away at Sheffield Wednesday. Stoke, Millwall and Blackburn really do hold the key to how this season is going to finish. Three points on Tuesday would really be very welcome indeed...

 

[Ottawa Green]

Pos    Team            P         GD        Pts    Max      Highest        Lowest
1    Leicester        35         40        78     111      1              12        Can not be relegated
2    Leeds U.         36         39        76     106      1              16      Can not be relegated
----------------------------------------------------------------------
3    Ipswich T.       35         25        75     108      1              15    Can not be relegated
4    Southampton      35         24        70     103      1              19
5    West Bromwich    35         18        59      92      1              23
6    Hull C.          35          7        56      89      1              23
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
7    Norwich C.       35          9        55      88      1              23
8    Preston N. E.    35         -5        53      86      1              23
9    Coventry C.      35         10        51      84      1              24
10   Sunderland       35          6        47      80      1              24
11   Cardiff C.       35         -8        47      80      1              24
12   Watford          35          2        44      77      2              24
13   Bristol C.       34         -1        44      77      2              24
14   Middlesbrough    34         -4        44      77      2              24
15   Swansea C.       35        -11        42      75      2              24
16   Plymouth A.      35         -6        40      73      3              24
17   Blackburn R.     35        -13        39      72      4              24
18   Millwall         35        -13        39      72      4              24
19   Queens Park R.   35        -12        38      71      4              24
20   Birmingham C.    34        -14        38      74      2              24
21   Huddersfield T.  34        -15        37      73      3              24
---------------------------------------------------------------
22   Stoke C.         35        -15        38      71      4              24
23   Sheffield W.     35        -24        35      68      5              24
24   Rotherham U.     36        -37        19      52      9              24        Can not be Promoted

 

[Mark Smith]

Here's my updated graphic after today's fixtures (Saturday 2nd March) - obviously it does not make such good reading.

One reason why it doesn’t make such good reading is that you have four to go down. I am nervous enough as it is ;-)

 

[Mark Smith]

The gap has closed to the bottom for us largely on account of the tough run of games we have come through, combined with a few of our mini-league rivals stringing good results together.

As an unabashed forecaster and statto, I’ll be paying a lot of attention to the form of our future opponents, our rivals AND the form of the teams our rivals will be playing. From here on in, as Wednesday and QPR are showing us, current form will play a pivotal role.

For example, drilling down, those two clubs have turned things around in a similar fashion.

QPR have found some resolve but have also come up against teams on poor runs at the time: Millwall, Huddersfield, Blackburn, Rotherham. Yesterday at Leicester was an eye-opener, but Leicester are having a wobble and the match stats yesterday tell a different story. And yet, three points to the Hoops.

Wednesday have won four of their last five, but by narrow margins against teams with poor or patchy form. Obviously that’s not to say they have not found more oomph themselves, and I’m not tempting fate for Tuesday. Wins breed confidence.

Millwall’s very poor run has been halted by wins against a wobbling Southampton and a Watford in free-fall. Etc. etc. All of this is just to say, the more you look the more you find.

Form aside, six of our remaining 11 games are against teams currently below us. Given the tightness, some of these will be real six-pointers: win and we open the gap up again, lose and we are right in the mire. Anything we get from the four teams scrapping at the top will be a bonus.

I hope that after Easter we are out of the zone where Matt needs to produce his excellent table of possible results/points.

Finally, looking at historical stats, I have to note that once again we appear to be battling in an anomalous season. Just as the last two seasons saw record points needed at the top of league one, this looks like one of the rarer times in recent years where the mythical 50 points or more will actually be needed to survive in the Championship…

 

[The Doctor]

One reason why it doesn’t make such good reading is that you have four to go down. I am nervous enough as it is ;-)

Ah yes, I had that wrong on my first graphic, correct it on my second one but then when I made this latest one I mistakenly went back and used the first one as my starting point. I’ll correct this in the next version after the midweek fixtures.

 

[mervyn]

I usually do this extrapolation in April, but here’s the end of season result if every team maintains their form over the last five games.

PPG last 5 Final points projection
Wednesday 2.4. 61
QPR. 2.0. 60
Hudd. 1.4. 53
Birmingham. 1.2. 52
Millwall. 1.2. 52
Borough. 0.6. 51
Argyle. 0.8. 48
Swansea. 0.5. 48
Stoke. 1.2. 48
Blackburn. 0.6. 45
Rotherham. 0. 19

We’ve had a tough fixture list for Feb, but with Wednesday, Leicester and QPR games to come, it certainly feels squeaky bum time to me.

 

[PutneyPete]

I usually do this extrapolation in April, but here’s the end of season result if every team maintains their form over the last five games.

PPG last 5 Final points projection
Wednesday 2.4. 61
QPR. 2.0. 60
Hudd. 1.4. 53
Birmingham. 1.2. 52
Millwall. 1.2. 52
Borough. 0.6. 51
Argyle. 0.8. 48
Swansea. 0.5. 48
Stoke. 1.2. 48
Blackburn. 0.6. 45
Rotherham 0. 19

We’ve had a tough fixture list for Feb, but with Wednesday, Leicester and QPR games to come, it certainly feels squeaky bum time to me.

I think you mean Rotherham at the bottom, who are doomed.

 

[warney]

Confirms that GD may be vital!

 

[djg145]

I think we can discount Rotherham from this point on.
The other teams around us have - on paper - some very tough games ahead of them.

Sheff Wed have Leeds H, Ipswich A, Swansea H, Boro A, QPR A, Norwich H, Stoke H, Blackburn A, WBA H and Sunderland A. So 5 teams in the top 10 positions. & 3 teams in the bottom mini league.

Stoke have it really tough: Preston A, Norwich H, Hull A, Huddersfield H, WBA H, Swansea A, Sheff Wed A, Argyle H, Southampton A and Bristol City H. So again 5 top teams and 3 teams in the mini league.

Huddersfield have: WBA H, Rotherham A, Coventry H, Stoke A, Millwall H, PNE A, Bristol City A, Swansea H, Birmingham H and Ipswich A. So 4 teams at the top & 3 in the mini league.

QPR have Boro H, Sunderland A, Birmingham H, Swansea A, Sheff Wed H, Argyle A, Hull A, PNE H, Leeds H and Coventry A. So 5 teams at the top end & 3 at the bottom end. Their last 4 games against teams fighting for the play-offs or promotion.

Birmingham: Millwall A, Boro H, QPR A, PNE H, Leicester A, Cardiff H, Coventry H, Rotherham A, Huddersfield A and Norwich H. So 4 teams at the top end & 4 teams at the bottom.

Millwall: Birmingham H, Leeds A, WBA H, Rotherham A, Huddersfield A, Leicester H, Cardiff H, Sunderland A, Argyle H and Swansea A. So 4 teams at the top end & 4 at the bottom.

Blackburn: Argyle H, Boro A, Ipswich H, Sunderland A, Southampton H, Bristol City A, Leeds A, Sheff Wed H, Coventry H & Leicester A. So they have SIX top 10 teams to play & only 2 teams in the bottom.

ARGYLE: Blackburn A, Preston H, Norwich A, Bristol City H, Rotherham A, QPR H, Leicester H, Stoke A, Millwall A & Hull H. So we have 4 teams in the top 10 to play & 5 in the bottom mini league.

Obviously there will be some unexpected results along the way, but on paper, Blackburn having to play 6 of the top ten teams and Sheff Wed, Stoke & QPR having to play 5, they have the tougher games - on paper lol

 

[Ottawa Green]

Pos    Team            P         GD        Pts    Max    Highest        Lowest
1    Leicester        36         41        81     111      1              10        Can not be relegated
2    Leeds U.         36         40        79     106      1              12        Can not be relegated 
------------------------------------------------------------------
3    Ipswich T.       36         26        78     108      1              10        Can not be relegated
4    Southampton      35         24        70     103      1              18        Can not be relegated
5    West Bromwich    36         18        60      90      1              23
6    Hull C.          36          7        57      87      1              23
 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
7    Norwich C.       36          7        55      85      1              23
8    Coventry C.      36         15        54      84      1              23
9    Preston N. E.    35         -5        53      86      1              23
10   Cardiff C.       36         -7        50      80      2              23
11   Sunderland       36          5        47      77      3              24
12   Middlesbrough    35         -2        47      80      2              24
13   Watford          36          2        45      75      4              24
14   Bristol C.       36         -2        44      74      4              24
15   Swansea C.       36        -11        43      73      4              24
16   Plymouth A.      36         -7        40      70      5              24
17   Blackburn R.     36        -13        40      70      5              24
18   Millwall         36        -13        40      70      5              24
19   Queens Park R.   36        -12        39      69      5              24
20   Birmingham C.    35        -14        39      72      4              24
21   Huddersfield T.  36        -16        38      68      5              24
---------------------------------------------------------------
22   Stoke C.         36        -16        38      68      5              24
23   Sheffield W.     37        -25        38      65      5              24
24   Rotherham U.     36        -42        19      49     11              24        Can not be Promoted