Elimination Table and others up and running

[The Doctor]

Here is my graphic after this week's fixtures. Four teams are safe from relegation. Eleven teams could still, in theory, gain automatic promotion. Only Rotherham cannot possibly achieve an play-off position and I think they will have their relegation confirmed within the next 2-3 fixtures. There are at least eight other teams in what looks to me like an almost unprecedentedly tight relegation battle and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that others such as Swansea, Bristol City and Watford could also be drawn into this battle. We absolutely have to look for maximum points in the home game against QPR and the away games at Blackburn and Millwall but then those teams will be thinking in exactly the same terms...

I really think that in this league there are perhaps ~15 teams that are fairly evenly matched (plus Rotherham), 4 teams that are obviously significantly better than all of the others and another ~4 teams that are better than most but still not competitive with the top four. It gets a bit blurry around Preston/Cardiff/Sunderland but if the top 8 teams now were creamed off the top of the table I think the league would be really exciting, really competitive and a much better competition. Of course, this is clearly the impact of Premier League money and recent Premier League history - Coventry being the only real outlier in a positive sense (perhaps Watford in a negative sense).

Anyway, we roll on to Blackburn on Saturday. A win there and things could look much, much more encouraging. Let's not think about the alternative eh?

 

[Ottawa Green]

Update March 12

Pos    Team                     GD        Pts    Max    Highest        Lowest
1    Leicester      37          41        82     109      1              10        Can not be relegated
2    Leeds U.       37          40        79     106      1              12        Can not be relegated
------------------------------------------------------------------
3    Ipswich T.     37          25        78     105      1              12        Can not be relegated
4    Southampton    36          26        73     103      1              14        Can not be relegated
5    West Bromwich  37          21        63      90      1              23
6    Norwich C.     36           7        55      85      1              23

 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
7    Hull C.        37           7        58      85      1              23
8    Coventry C.    37          16        57      84      1              23
9    Middlesbrough  37           1        53      80      2              24
10  Preston N. E.    36         -6        53      83      1              23
11  Cardiff C.       37         -6        53      80      2              23
12  Sunderland       37          3        47      74      5              24
13  Bristol C.       37         -1        47      74      4              24
14  Watford          37          1        45      72      5              24
15  Swansea C.       37        -12        43      70      5              24
16  Millwall         36        -13        40      70      5              24
17  Plymouth A.      37         -7        41      68      5              24
18  Blackburn R.     37        -13        41      68      5              24
19  Stoke C.         37        -15        41      68      5              24
20  Queens Park R.   37        -14        39      66      5              24
21  Birmingham C.    37        -16        39      66      5              24
---------------------------------------------------------------
22  Huddersfield T.  37        -19        38      65      5              24
23   Sheffield W.    37        -25        38      65      5              24
24   Rotherham U.    37        -47        19      46     14              24        Can not be Promoted

 

[The Doctor]

Updated after all of the weekend fixtures:

• only 11 teams (just) can still gain automatic promotion
• all but 1 team can still reach the play-offs
• 4 teams are safe from relegation
• Rotherham are almost down and almost certainly will be before we play them on 5th April
• there are ~10 teams still in danger and it is likely to be very late in the season before most of these know their fate (including Argyle)

It would be surprising if all of the teams still in danger continued to keep picking up points at a similar rate so it will be interesting to see whether any of these teams can gather two or three wins quickly and start to pull away. However, given that there is an International Break before Easter we are going to have to be patient. One thing's for sure - a win on Saturday against Preston would steady things a bit. Their form is pretty good - 4 wins and 2 draws since the start of February before their loss to Stoke on Saturday - and they are still clinging on to the possibility of the play-offs (but I don't think they will be able to force out three of West Brom, Norwich, Hull and Coventry to get that prize).

 

[The Doctor]

Updated to include yesterday's game between Birmingham and Middlesbrough - mostly because it was a good result from an Argyle perspective!

 

[Ottawa Green]

Update March 16

Pos    Team                     GD        Pts    Max    Highest        Lowest
1   Leicester        37         41        82     109      1              10        Can not be relegated
2   Ipswich T.       38         31        81     105      1              10        Can not be relegated

------------------------------------------------------------------
3   Leeds U.         37         40        79     106      1              10        Can not be relegated
4   Southampton      36         26        73     103      1              12        Can not be relegated
5   West Bromwich    38         23        66      90      1              18        Can not be relegated
6   Norwich C.       38         15        61      85      1              23

 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
7   Hull C.          37          7        58      85      1              23
8   Coventry C.      37         16        57      84      1              23
9   Preston N. E.    37         -5        56      83      1              23
10  Middlesbrough    38          1        54      78      4              23
11  Cardiff C.       38         -8        53      77      4              23
12  Sunderland       38          3        48      72      5              23
13  Watford          38          2        48      72      5              23
14  Bristol C.       38         -3        47      71      5              23
15  Swansea C.       38        -10        46      70      5              23
16  Millwall         37        -12        43      70      5              24
17  Blackburn R.     37        -13        42      69      5              24
18  Plymouth A.      38         -8        41      65      6              24
19  Stoke C.         38        -18        41      65      6              24
20  Queens Park R.   38        -14        40      64      6              24
21  Birmingham C.    38        -17        39      63      6              24
---------------------------------------------------------------
22  Huddersfield T.  38        -19        39      63      6              24
23  Sheffield W.     38        -31        38      62      6              24
24  Rotherham U.     38        -47        20      44     16              24        Can not be Promoted

 

[The Doctor]

Update graphic after the weekend's fixtures. West Brom are now safe from relegation. Leicester have slipped to second, albeit on goal difference. One of the top three (possible two of the top 4) are going to feel terrible when they miss out on automatic promotion...

Despite losing on Saturday the other results did us little additional damage. I think Swansea are safe now - they are picking up points fairly frequently and have opened up a little gap but it is not impossible that Bristol City will continue to drop and get sucked into the battle (unlikely though). I'm just hanging on to the knowledge that three teams still need to make up three points on us over the remaining eight games... I just hope that we can somehow dig out a win or a couple of draws in the Easter Weekend games so that we have some kind of momentum going into the away game at Rotherham.

 

[The Doctor]

Here's my latest version including all of the games on Good Friday.
Some observations (working downwards):

• only seven teams can now gain automatic promotion but realistically I think only Southampton have a chance to break into the top two
• after setting the pace for the whole season, Leicester's form seems to have collapsed a bit; can the really be about to mess everything up?
• Ipswich are doing something truly remarkable - when Leeds started to really apply the pressure it looked like Ipswich would slide down to make way for them but, in fact, they have responded magnificently and it has been Leicester who have looked most vulnerable.
• Apart from the top four I think there are six other teams in with a shout of the play-offs (down to Middlesbrough) but I suspect that it will be one of Norwich or Coventry who join the current top five to battle for promotion.
• Hull's form has dipped and I think they will not be in the play-off mix by the time our last game comes around which might help us.
• Argyle can no longer gain promotion this season - the dream is over for now.
• I think that Millwall and Stoke are probably safe - they have managed to open up a five point gap on Birmingham, Huddersfield and Sheffield Wednesday and I reckon with a few more points garnered in the remaining fixtures they will end up comfortably safe.
• That leaves the bottom seven although it is really just a bottom six and Rotherham - Rotherham are going to be relegated unless they win every single one of their remaining games.
• QPR probably only really need one more win to effectively be safe.
• My instinct is that it is two from Blackburn, Argyle, Birmingham, Huddersfield and Sheffield Wednesday that will go down.
• A win in the next couple of games would make a huge difference for Argyle - get the points as early as possible and watch the other teams suffer... hell, let's be greedy - a draw on Monday and a win at Rotherham will do very nicely indeed...

 

[The Doctor]

Here's the updated table after all of the games on 1st April... With late winners for Ipswich and Leeds it's now looking very much like a three horse race for the top two spots but the last two play-off berths still look uncertain with Middlesbrough making a later surge and Hull still in with a shout.

Rotherham have lived to fight another day - that day being Friday when Argyle could (surely must) relegate them. It is looking increasingly like two from four or five at the bottom with Stoke seeming to be picking up enough points to keep clear of danger. However, Millwall are still in some danger I think, something that could work in Argyle's favour. I am sure that QPR will be fine now - both their points total and their form look strong. We're not quite in the last chance saloon yet but Friday night's game is pretty close.

 

[Ottawa Green]

I will do mine tuesday hopefully i will have calmed down by then.

 

[Ottawa Green]

Update after April 1

Pos    Team                     GD        Pts    Max    Highest        Lowest
1   Ipswich T.       40         33        87     105      1              5        Playoffs

2   Leeds U.         40         44        86     104      1              5        Playoffs

------------------------------------------------------------------
3   Leicester        39         42        85     106      1              6        Playoffs
4   Southampton      38         25        74     98       1              11       Can not be relegated
5   West Bromwich    40         23        68      86      2              14       Can not be relegated
6   Norwich C.       40         14        64      82      4              16       Can not be relegated

 ----------------------------------------------------------------------
7   Coventry C.      39         17        60      81      4              20       Can not be relegated
8   Preston N. E.    39         -3        59      80      4              21       Can not be relegated
9   Middlesbrough    40          3        58      76      4              22
10  Hull C.          39          3        58      79      4              22
11  Cardiff C.       40         -9        56      74      4              23
12  Bristol C.       40         -1        53      71      5              23
13  Sunderland       40          1        51      69      5              23
14  Watford          40          2        50      68      5              23
15  Swansea C.       40        -11        47      65      5              23
16  Queens Park R.   40        -12        46      64      6              23
17  Blackburn R.     40        -10        45      63      7              23        Can not be Promoted
18  Stoke C.         40        -16        45      63      7              23        Can not be Promoted
19  Millwall         40        -15        44      62      7              23        Can not be Promoted
20  Birmingham C.    40        -17        42      60      7              23        Can not be Promoted
21  Plymouth A.     40         -10        41      59      8              24        Can not be Promoted
 
---------------------------------------------------------------
22  Huddersfield T.  40        -21        40      58      9              24        Can not be Promoted
23  Sheffield W.     40        -33        39      57     11              24        Can not be Promoted
24  Rotherham U.     40        -49        23      41     21              24        Can not be Promoted

 

[Ottawa Green]

Update April 6

1   Leicester        40         43        88     106      1               5        Playoffs
2   Ipswich T.       41         32        87     102      1               5        Playoffs
------------------------------------------------------------------
3   Leeds U.         41         43        86     101      1               5        Playoffs
4   Southampton      39         25        75      96      1               9        Can not be relegated
5   West Bromwich    41         23        69      84      4              12        Can not be relegated
6   Norwich C.       41         15        67      82      4              13        Can not be relegated
----------------------------------------------------------------------
7   Coventry C.      40         18        63      81      4              15        Can not be relegated
8   Middlesbrough    41          5        61      76      4              16        Can not be relegated
9   Hull C.          40          5        61      79      4              16        Can not be relegated
10  Preston N. E.    40         -3        60      78      4              19        Can not be relegated
11  Cardiff C.       41        -11        56      71      5              23
12  Bristol C.       41         -1        54      69      5              23
13  Sunderland       41          1        52      67      6              23
14  Watford          41          2        51      66      7              23        Can not be Promoted
15  Swansea C.       41        -13        47      62      8              23        Can not be Promoted
16  Blackburn R.     41        -10        46      61      8              23        Can not be Promoted
17  Queens Park R.   41        -14        46      61      8              23        Can not be Promoted
18  Stoke C.         41        -16        46      61      8              23        Can not be Promoted
19  Plymouth A.      41         -9        44      59     11              23        Can not be Promoted
20  Millwall         41        -16        44      59     11              23        Can not be Promoted
21  Huddersfield T.  41        -20        43      58     11              23        Can not be Promoted
---------------------------------------------------------------------
22  Birmingham C.    41        -18        42      57     11              23        Can not be Promoted
23  Sheffield W.     41        -31        42      57     11              23        Can not be Promoted
24  Rotherham U.     41        -50        23      38     24              24        RELEGATED

 

[Mat]

Hopefully Swansea would like to beat the 4 teams that are below them that they still have to play. Huddersfield’s away games are tough. However results are very unpredictable in this league.

 

[Lancastergreen]

No idea what I am looking at Mat but it looks pretty

 

[Mat]

Win draw loss combinations and how many pts total that gets each team. So if you think Birmingham and Sheffield may finish 2 wins and 2 draws, we’d need 2 wins and just 1 draw to stay up. Combos will unwind a little as we have even fewer fixtures.

 

[MustardEagle]

Win draw loss combinations and how many pts total that gets each team. So if you think Birmingham and Sheffield may finish 2 wins and 2 draws, we’d need 2 wins and just 1 draw to stay up. Combos will unwind a little as we have even fewer fixtures.

Would you be able to to please add in GD in your next update?