Elimination Table and others up and running

[Ottawa Green]

Update after April 13th games

         Team        PL        GD        PTS     MAX     HIGH            LOW
1   Ipswich T.       43         32        89      98      1               5        Playoffs
2   Leicester        42         41        88     100      1               5        Playoffs

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3   Leeds U.         43         42        87      96      1               5        Playoffs
4   Southampton      41         27        81      96      1               5        Can not be relegated
5   West Bromwich    43         24        72      81      4               9        Can not be relegated
6   Norwich C.       43         16        71      80      4              10        Can not be relegated
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7  Hull C.           42          8        65      77      5              13        Can not be relegated
8  Coventry C.       42         14        63      75      5              14        Can not be relegated
9  Middlesbrough     43          5        63      72      5              14        Can not be relegated
10  Preston N. E.    42         -1        63      75      5              15        Can not be relegated
11  Cardiff C.       43        -12        59      68      7              16        Can not be promoted
12  Bristol C.       43          4        58      67      7              17        Can not be promoted
13  Sunderland       43          2        56      65      7              19        Can not be Promoted
14  Swansea C.       43         -9        53      62     11              23        Can not be Promoted
15  Watford          43          1        52      61     11              23        Can not be Promoted
16  Millwall         43        -13        50      59     11              23        Can not be Promoted
17  Blackburn R.     43        -14        49      58     12              23        Can not be Promoted
18  Plymouth A.      43         -8        48      57     13              23        Can not be Promoted
19  Queens Park R.   43        -17        47      56     13              23        Can not be Promoted
20  Stoke C.         43        -19        47      56     13              23        Can not be Promoted
21  Birmingham C.    43        -16        45      54     13              23        Can not be Promoted
 
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22  Huddersfield T.  43        -23        44      53     14              23        Can not be Promoted
23  Sheffield W.     43        -31        44      53     14              23        Can not be Promoted
24  Rotherham U.     43        -53        23      32     24              24        RELEGATED

 

[The Doctor]

Wow... I was a tad optimistic with my post earlier today because this absolutely bonkers Championship has only gone and done it again with wins for Millwall, Blackburn (incredibly) and Birmingham. But despite there being some winners, with so many teams in the relegation mix there were bound to be some losers too and so QPR, Stoke and Huddersfield have all lost out by 2 points on the rest of the relegation threatened teams in this round of fixtures. QPR are an interesting one because having seemed to have climbed to safety they now find themselves with three tricky games (Preston and Leeds at home and Coventry away) and it is entirely possible that their point at Home Park this week could be their last point of the season. Bristol City did us a massive favour with their late equaliser against Huddersfield and the point that gained them has now put them out of our reach (so they join the greyed out teams).

At the top, Southampton remain in with a shout of automatic promotion, not least because all three of the teams above them seem to have decided that perhaps they don't want to be in the Premier League next season after all. Hull, Preston and Coventry all retain a faint hope of reaching the play-offs but I can't see West Brom and (especially) Norwich releasing their grip on 5th and 6th places.I suspect that the play-off places will all be decided before we get to entertain Hull on May 4th.

But what about the bottom then... Our vastly better goal difference means that Huddersfield and Sheffield Wednesday both need at least 5 points to overtake us and Birmingham need 4 points. 5 points requires 2 wins or 1 win and 2 draws. Birmingham's 4 points could come from 1 win and 1 draw. As I wrote earlier, there's minimal margin for error for any of these three teams (and both SW and HT slipped a little today and I reckon they will both fail to win next weekend too).

Really thought, my over-riding thought after today's games is thank goodness we won last night...

 

[djg145]

Nervous wreck, oh to be a neutral fan of football!!

 

[South Hams James]

View attachment 14924

A roller-coaster of a day, Swansea now essentially safe. One more win, and Huddersfield and Wednesday both need to win their last three, that would mean Birmingham can only get 6 pts.
Avoid defeat in both our next 2 away games will go a very long way towards survival.

No team can get relegated until the penultimate game. We would be safe with a win at Stoke and aforementioned Huddersfield and Sheffield fail to win. Birmingham are pretty much in with those two due to our currently superior goal difference.

One win and we are all but mathematically safe due to our goal difference. I just hope that one win isnt needed on the final day!

 

[The Doctor]

There's a non-Argyle, top-of-the-table focus to this update...

I thought I ought to update my graphic to include the mid-week game between Southampton and Preston and so that it is all ready for the big weekend ahead (I also corrected Leicester as it lo0oks like I forgot to update their numbers after their defeat at Home Park).

With Southampton's latest win the fight for the automatic promotion places has just become really interesting because with Ipswich, Leicester and Leeds all faltering a bit. The remaining fixtures for these teams are interesting - mostly against teams in the top 10 and with two big clashes with Southampton travelling to Leicester and Leeds. I think Southampton are in a really strong position and having not been in the top-two all seasons (as far as I can recall) they could quite easily sneak into an automatic promotion spot, possibly at the expense of their opponents on the last day of the season (imagine the atmosphere at Elland Road if that happens!). It's also to our advantage that Ipswich play Huddersfield, Leicester play Blackburn, Leeds play QPR and Southampton play Stoke.

I can't recall a season when a league where the promotion and relegation places are still so undecided so close to the end although oddly the Premier League is similar this year.

Ipswich have Hull (A), Coventry (A) and Huddersfield (H)
Leicester have West Brom (H), Southampton (H), Preston (A) and Blackburn (H)
Leeds have Middlesbrough (A), QPR (A) and Southampton (H)
Southampton have Cardiff (A), Leicester (A), Stoke (H) and Leeds (A)


W

 

[Adam]

I think I’m wrong but if win tomorrow that puts us on 51 points.

Huddersfield and Wednesday can only reach 50.

Is that correct?

 

[PauloBurkicini]

I think I’m wrong but if win tomorrow that puts us on 51 points.

Huddersfield and Wednesday can only reach 50.

Is that correct?

No

 

[Ottawa Green]

I think I’m wrong but if win tomorrow that puts us on 51 points.

Huddersfield and Wednesday can only reach 50.

Is that correct?

Adam check my table above both Hudders and Wendies have 3 games left and can reach 53 points if they won all 3 games.

 

[Andy S]

I think I’m wrong but if win tomorrow that puts us on 51 points.

Huddersfield and Wednesday can only reach 50.

Is that correct?

IF however, we win and they both lose, THEN they can only get 50 points and we will have 51.

That makes us 100% safe doesn’t it?

 

[Adam]

IF however, we win and they both lose, THEN they can only get 50 points and we will have 51.

That makes us 100% safe doesn’t it?

Yeah that was my thinking earlier. I had banked on them both losing.

 

[Jon with no H]

Adam check my table above both Hudders and Wendies have 3 games left and can reach 53 points if they won all 3 games.

To add even more uncertainty, with Huddersfield and Birmingam still having to play each other, they can't both get maximum points....even in as mad a league as this one!

 

[Mat]

And on it goes. Stoke and QPR are pretty much safe, as we would likely have been with a win.

We need a Blackburn win to mean that Wednesday need to win their last 2 to pass us, Huddersfield have to win 2 to pass us now. Big game next week in Yorkshire, I think a Huddersfield win or a draw are our best result, a Birmingham win would keep us safe from Huddersfield but Sheffield would still be able to catch us, we’ll get a better idea after tomorrow’s game.

This time next week we could be safe, a point at Millwall may be enough. It would be nice to go in to the last game with safety secured.

 

[The Doctor]

Oh dear,or dear, oh dear - this isn't the update that I was hoping to write this evening...

At the top, my previous post suggesting that Southampton were in a good position to nick one of the automatic promotion places doesn't look quite as likely now, given their defeat and Leicester's win today but if Ipswich and/or Leeds slip up again then they are certainly in with a chance and it could easily go to the last match of the season, especially as Leeds and Southampton still have to play each other. The last two play-off places are now between West Brom, Norwich, Hull, Coventry and Middlesbrough although Middlesbrough only have an outside/theoretical chance really and West Brom and Norwich certainly hold the advantage (good for us as West Brom visit Sheffield Wednesday next Saturday and Norwich visit Birmingham on the final day) [let's not worry about Hill for now...]

Two more teams have been 'eliminated' - Sunderland and Swansea (we can no longer catch them).

Watford and Millwall are now definitely safe.

Stoke and QPR can still be caught by us, Birmingham and Sheffield Wednesday but it's unlikely that they will be.

Blackburn can also be caught by Blackburn but if they are then Sheffield Wednesday won't be able to because of their poor goal difference.

We can still be caught by the three teams directly below us. If we were to lose our last two games (worst case scenario):
- Birmingham would need a win or two draws to pass us
- Huddersfield would need two wins
- Sheffield Wednesday would need two wins or a win and two draws

So... If Sheffield Wednesday win tomorrow they will need the same as Birmingham. If they draw then they still need at least a win and a draw from their last two games and if they lose then they need two wins. We really need Blackburn to win tomorrow but even then I don't feel confident that Sheffield Wednesday won't beat West Brom at Hillsborough and then win away at Sunderland (everyone else seems to be doing that at the moment). But whatever the result in tomorrow's game we will still be in competition with all three of these teams at 3pm next Saturday... We just need to hope that the same thing isn't true two hours later either because Huddersfield lose to Birmingham and Sheffield Wednesday get less than two draws in their next two games - or better still, we manage to get something at Millwall that tips the balance in our favour (a win would certainly confirm safety as both of Birmingham and Huddersfield can't win both of their two games).

IF it goes to the last game I suspect it will be between us and Birmingham as to who joins Huddersfield in the bottom three.

Yikes.

 

[cheshiregreen]

Bit of a typo - see below.

Blackburn can also be caught by Blackburn but if they are then Sheffield Wednesday won't be able to because of their poor goal difference.

 

[The Doctor]

Bit of a typo - see below.

I'm not exactly sure what I meant now - I think it was that Blackburn can also be caught by Huddersfield (as well as Birmingham and Sheffield Wednesday) but if they are then probably won't be by Birmingham... but to be honest it's all got a bit too confusing!