One Team in Devon articles thread

[one team in devon]

We've produced another big stats deep dive into Ian Foster and compared his numbers to Steven Schumacher.

You can read the piece here – and there are links to the accompanying podcast we've done with Green & White. On that we do a bit more analysis of the tactical implications.

https://oneteamindevon.substack.com/p/ian-fosters-stats-analysed-the-real

There's also a fascinating analysis about the chances of staying up with Fozball over Schueyball.

Hope you enjoy, think it's worth your time – and all feedback is appreciated. And please subscribe if you like it!

 

[Biggs]

Some fairly massive changes in how we play, that's for sure. I don't like the sound of 'launches'

Shots are down 41% and shot accuracy is also down 31% from Schumacher’s tenure in the Championship.

Big chances created are also down 36%, which is perhaps a better measure of how things have fallen.

xG (expected goals) is down 26% and those shots are also 14% less dangerous than under Schumacher.

We also have the fewest headed shots in the league as well. But there are signs of Foster’s ideas – even if they are leading to reduced creation. We are the No.1 team for fast breaks and shots from fast breaks – that’s up 70% from Schumacher.

xGOT (expected goals on target) is a measure how how dangerous a shot is. e.g. is it in the middle of the goal or top corner. xGOT is down 56% under Foster rank 21st in the league for the threat from their shots.

The style of play has changed under Foster – and rapidly.

Passing has been scaled back under Foster, and we play -15% fewer passes under him that Schumacher. Accuracy is also a tad down, as is possession – both around 4%.

Argyle rank 22nd for passes attempted and possession in the Championship under Foster.

We’re also the 20th worst team for passing accuracy and the WORST for passing accuracy in the opponent’s half.

Argyle’s xA (expected assists) has also fallen 31%, in line with shots taken.

Fozball sees 42% more crosses than under Schumacher, but have the fewest pulled back crosses in the league, which are typically more dangerous. That’s 66% down from Schumacher. We are also 23rd for penalty area entries, 22nd for possession and 22nd for touches into opponent box.

And here’s a really telling stat:

Argyle are 2nd for ‘launches’ in the league (hoofing it long) but have the 23rd worst launch accuracy. That’s up 61% over Schumacher. So big questions have to be asked about Foster’s instructions, when we are so unsuited to the style of play he’s trying to implement.

 

[Mitch]

Some fairly massive changes in how we play, that's for sure. I don't like the sound of 'launches'

But on the flip side:

Foster has improved on a very weak defence under Schumacher – which presumably was his brief.

Argyle have increased tackles 20% as well as duals, although tackle success has dropped 12%overall. Fouls are up 23% as well. We’re 1st in the league for clearances, 2nd for blocks and we have the 5th lowest shots on target %.

Argyle concede 11% fewer goals under Fosterand have an xGA (expected goals against) 22% lower than under Schumacher. We also concede fewer headed shots (down 35%).

Entries into our own box are down 15% from Schumacher as well.

But we still have the 5th worst xGA (expected goals against) in the division under Foster.

We are conceding more from outside the area – and there’s a disparity between goals conceded and threat, which means there can be some focus on goalkeeping – with more shots flying in from distance.

This is a big turnaround, nearly as large as the drop in attacking output.

 

[aNorthernSoul]

Overall it did give me hope that we can turn this around under Foster. There has been a drop off but likely not all entirely due to the change in personnel since December. Still hope we do stop launching it like we still have Fallon up front.

 

[one team in devon]

Mark Lovell shares how he vented before the advent of social media:

"I don't blame fans for venting on social media – I once wrote Dan McCauley & Mick Jones an angry letter. Here's how they replied:"

https://oneteamindevon.substack.com/p/i-dont-blame-fans-for-venting-i-once

Does anyone have similar stories?

 

[Ham Green]

I once wrote a very stern letter to Dan Macauley.

I left it on my desk and my boss saw it. Got a bollocking for wasting company time.

Nowadays I just resort to gallows humour. No point getting angry about something you cannot control.

 

[saxman]

Mark Lovell shares how he vented before the advent of social media:

"I don't blame fans for venting on social media – I once wrote Dan McCauley & Mick Jones an angry letter. Here's how they replied:"

https://oneteamindevon.substack.com/p/i-dont-blame-fans-for-venting-i-once

Does anyone have similar stories?

No, but I found the comparison between Mark's polite criticisms, whilst still making his point, and today's sometimes rabid vehemence very poignant.

 

[memory man]

No, but I found the comparison between Mark's polite criticisms, whilst still making his point, and today's sometimes rabid vehemence very poignant.

Me too.

 

[one team in devon]

Put together five lessons learned this season...the key one being is that we need to enshrine the club's values around togetherness from megalomaniac head coaches.

Anyone have any more?

Read them here https://oneteamindevon.substack.com/p/5-lessons-i-learned-from-the-chaos

 

[Jon with no H]

For me the thing I learned is that no single result in this league is completely surprising, but over 46 games teams tend to end up in their positions on merit.

 

[Green Flash]

Good article.

My main take, when I look back, is that staying up while

- having the smallest, or close to smallest, budget in the league
- losing our talismanic manager most of the coaching staff and three first team players half way through the season -
- recruiting a replacement plainly not up to the job that threatened to destroy the club unity that has been such a cornerstone of our success
- having a dreadful January transfer window from which really only one incoming player gave a sustained contribution
- goals drying up from our two most prolific players at the business end of the season
- safety requiring one of the highest totals in the history of the championship

Has been an absolute bloody miracle.

On a par with last years miracle of pipping Ipswich to the league one title who virtually had the same team that has now been promoted to the Premier League

If we can have a season where not so much goes against us we could achieve great things

 

[Voice of Reason]

I think i take a level of optimism going forward.
I saw both Cardiff games and at a total loss to explain how they finished in the top half of the table, clearly fine margins matter we are certainly not that far off a team that could finish midtable (Preston, Cardiff, Millwall), with a little bit of nous, a few good decisions, absolutely no reason not to have a boring season (in a nice sense) and build a platform to be a sustainable Championship club.
FFP will one day catch up, hopefully soon and that could be the thing that propels us forward.

 

[goldinho]

I thought the standard of the championship was much higher than i anticipated, but then again the last time i watched it was when we got relegated in 2010.

 

[Sherford Green]

I think i take a level of optimism going forward.
I saw both Cardiff games and at a total loss to explain how they finished in the top half of the table, clearly fine margins matter we are certainly not that far off a team that could finish midtable (Preston, Cardiff, Millwall), with a little bit of nous, a few good decisions, absolutely no reason not to have a boring season (in a nice sense) and build a platform to be a sustainable Championship club.
FFP will one day catch up, hopefully soon and that could be the thing that propels us forward.

Completely agree with this, especially your comment on Cardiff. I watched them a few times this season on tv and on the games against us and I thought they looked absolutely rubbish. With four or five good signings in the summer, and hopefully keeping our existing best players, there’s no reason we can’t be in that sort of position next season.

Edited to add: looking at the table, we scored six more goals this season than Cardiff and conceded the same number as them and yet they finished 11 points higher than us.

 

[mutley marvel]

Brutal league dominated by Finance & Physicality mixed in with a peppering of questionable referring decisions
If you also add into the mix teams that have had the same personnel for the last couple of seasons you realise the battles you face in each individual match
One immense learning curve for us mixed in with the December/January upheaval our club faced- but we got through it & live to fight another season in the Championship
Close season will be exciting to see who walks through the Theatre of Greens front door in respect of new Head Coach & new players