Turning the ship around // Part 7: The creative void

[The Doctor]

As a data and numbers man myself that’s really interesting. I especially like the way it starts with good old-fashioned paper and pen. Do you do this just as a ‘hobby’ or are you hoping to make a living out of this kind of thing one day?

 

[samjones]

No amount of data or stats are going to convince me of anything other than we are really carp and DA doesn't have a Scooby Doo

 

[NickSS]

Just a hobby. It actually started by just trying to prove a point to a friend last year and escalated waaaay out of control, to the point I'm at now. I doubt I'll ever make a living out of it, but there might be an opportunity to bring in some additional income in the future. At the very least, by doing this I've improved my analysis and writing, as well as learning a huge amount about Excel.

 

[Mike E]

Brentfords owner/chairman bases the whole running of the club on detailed statistical analysis. On and off the pitch. Even towards making the decision to closing the academy, which on the face of things at the time appeared to be succesful. Every player from first team down to u10s had statistical analysis available to assess their performance.

The last four years they have pretty much been on the edge of the Championship play offs and for a club, arguably smaller than Argyle in terms of fan based income, their success could be based on their statistical analysis approach.

 

[NickSS]

For those who are interested, I've just published Part 4. As ever, I'd appreciate any feedback - positive or negative.
Part 4: Defensive disaster?

 

[Nick Prideaux]

The analysis is interesting. Injuries to me is the biggest factor. Other critical points, which chime with many of yours, are:

1) Losing Threlkeld and Bradley at the back
2) Lack of bulk and skill in midfield. But injuries have been ever so cruel to us.
3) Loss of Ryan Taylor. Whilst not prolific he holds the ball well and creates havoc for defenders.

The manager has shown at Ross County and Argyle that he has the capability and dedication. Above all it is numerous injuries and lengthy lay offs which have cruelly ruined the effectiveness of Argyle.

 

[The Doctor]

For those who are interested, I've just published Part 4. As ever, I'd appreciate any feedback - positive or negative.
Part 4: Defensive disaster?

This is another interesting read that makes a lot of sense. The use of examples is really good (and makes me wonder why Wootton was signed in the first place). But you might want to edit the title - although your analysis is based on lots of computation and seems the work of an intelligent mind I am not sure that Turing has much to do with things!

 

[NickSS]

You spend all that time reading through 3800 words, trying to perfect each one, only to miss a single letter in the title. :facepalm:

 

[Penlee]

That's a brilliant analysis, well done. Must have been painstaking to complete but very very interesting particularly the CB header stats

 

[NickSS]

Thanks NickSS one of the best things I have read on this site in years.
As a absolute Twitter novice how do I go about reading future articles?

Thank you, I appreciate the feedback!
If you don't know how to use twitter, you can always just check the Argyle Life website or visit the archive of my articles for bits that I write specifically, but the archive is less user-friendly.

 

[Forest of Dean Green]

Excellent 4th contribution. Sharp analysis and very well written. The stats on aerial duels were absolutely fascinating, as was the view on Vyner. Looking forward to the next instalment.

 

[Manchesterlala]

What an excellent read. It sort of tells us what we already know - the importance of Fox and Sarcevic - with some highly persuasive and intelligent analysis as well. Also, there are a few here who have been singing Songo’o’s praises. Isn’t that because in the defensive set up Adams has been playing where we have no control of the ball in the middle of the park, Songo’o’s strengths - strong tackling - are able to be displayed. That masks the disbenefits of playing him, no ball control, no ability to play through the thirds. which conversely creates the need for a strong tackler. It’s therefore a false proposition to heap praise on him. Is that your Songo’o paradox? Fascinating reading. Keep it up!

I’ve always been of the opinion that Songo’o looks our best player when we’re playing badly (he was player of the season until we started picking up points last year) but is a complete liability when we’re playing well. You know exactly what you’re in for when he’s in the starting XI.

 

[Lesley Somerville]

I've already said (on Twitter!) how much I've enjoyed reading these - mainly because they have helped me to make sense of the abject and utter mess that we've been since the start of the season, and at the end of last season also. Everyone saying that Taylor is crucial to our game-plan is correct, as the stats show. But it looks very much like he won't be back anytime soon, unless DA is playing his cards very very close to his chest. If he is, fair play to him and having Taylor back should improve the situation. But without Taylor, we are where we are and what is going to change that?? It's what happens next that concerns me, and equally I'll admit, fascinates me. Car crash football anyone?

 

[JannerinCardiff]

Great analysis of CB’s.. good to know my view of Wooton is actually backed up by stats.

Be really good to know about passing stats of the defence as I think we are really missing a ball playing CB..

 

[NickSS]

Be really good to know about passing stats of the defence as I think we are really missing a ball playing CB..

That won't be covered but I can for your right now. In short, we're not.
Last season, Bradley, Vyner and Edwards all had passing % in the low 60s. Vyner and Bradley collectively averaged about 45 passes per game, roughly split 25-20 Bradey:Vyner.
However, CBs generally don't need to be good at passing, especially at this level, for a team to succeed. It's the midfield that needs to be able to pass. Bradley and Vyner had Fox in his best position - the one that Songo'o has been in most of this season - and he virtually always presented himself for a pass to receive the ball and move it into another player in space. Songo'o doesn't do that.
Allow me to quote myself:

When Songo’o plays, not only does he make fewer successful passes than Fox, with a lower accuracy, but the entire midfield makes fewer successful passes with a lower accuracy and the whole team makes fewer passes with a lower accuracy. Along with Carey and Lameiras, Fox is one of the best passers of the ball in the team. By removing him from midfield, Argyle have less control of the ball and a weaker grasp on each individual game. Part 2: The real problem area - midfield

So, while the defenders have very average (if slightly below average) passing statistics, they are no different to what Vyner or Bradley would have achieved. Generally speaking, the stats tell us nothing. Edwards has the lowest % but that's mostly because he's hit more long passes, same with Grant. Wootton, on the other hand, is just as bad at hitting long passes, but otherwise just makes more simple square passes in defence, which can hardly count as a "ball playing CB".
Edwards: 57.7%, 19.1 /90
Canavan: 65.1%, 22.1 /90
Wootton: 67.1%, 24.8 /90
Grant: 55.5%, 18.0 /90
A passing CB will not change much - if anything. What we need is a better midfield. As I argued throughout P2/3, that midfield is Fox, Sarcevic, Ness (though I'm open to Grant or O'Keefe filling Ness' position). The emphasis, in this case, is upon Fox, in that deepest midfield role, to help string together passes from the back and relieve any pressure on the defence.