Turning the ship around // Part 7: The creative void

[NickSS]

Thanks for all the positive comments again, it does make all the hours I put into the research and writing feel worthwhile!
This one in particular stood out:

Also, there is quite a lot of research on how, even minutes after an event, people start to recall it differently and through the lens of their values and attitudes.

My dad refuses to accept this and maintains that his first person experience is more accurate than any of my takes, but then fails to recall even the basic facts of matches from just a handful of weeks past, including final score and goalscorers! :lol:

Do you think Adams can turn it around again like last season.
Why has he abandoned the winning formula from last season.If something is successful in life isn't it better to repeat something that was a success rather than change it.

I absolutely believe he can turn it around. There is enough quality in the squad to pull off the same style as last season, even if it might not lead to a play-off charge. In fact, the depth is even better than last season in most positions. While people have rightly criticised Ladapo for his aerial ability, I'd still argue that he's a better backup striker than any other we had last season. Similarly, in Conor Grant and Stuart O'Keefe, we've got more depth to cover midfield injuries. In most positions, we've upgraded the backup, so if we do his a run of form then a solitary injury is less likely to derail it.
Will he turn it around? That's another matter altogether. Like I said in part one - and this is a suspicion rather than a statement of opinion or fact - I fear that Adams doesn't understand why the system worked last season; instead I worry he just fell into it through chance, injuries and a bit of selection preference. Should that be the case, do we wait and gamble on the right group of injuries, suspensions and selections to put the team back together again?
Songo'o is suspended this weekend, so if Sarcevic comes back in with Fox behind him that should result in a better performance. Maybe Adams benches Songo'o for the GIllingham match as a result, and suddenly the midfield is slotting back into shape. He has already reintroduced Carey and Lameiras - it took him long enough - so, all of a sudden, Argyle should be back to at least 4/6 of the best midfield and attack, all in their best positions within that system. That in itself should help add more balance to the entire team and produce a better quality performance (hopefully even a win from one of the two).
What would you do then? We'd be close to what I believe is our best team, with Taylor still to return from injury. However, all the signs would suggest that he didn't choose to play the lineup, but instead "he just fell into it through chance, injuries and a bit of selection preference." Is that a good enough reason to keep a manager?

 

[Cobi Budge]

I’ve always thought that Fox and Sarcevic make us tick..

When they're both fully fit and on it then absolutely, the problem is Fox isn't getting any younger and it's clear he's lost a yard or two, while Sarcevic is injured far more than not, we need an alternative because we simply can't bank on these two always being available & together.

 

[NickSS]

100% agree that we need to sign like-for-like backups, especially for Fox, if we're going to continue with this system, hence why I advocated releasing Songo'o and using the money to sign a proper understudy for Fox all summer long.
I do contest the "it's clear he's lost a yard or two" notion however - always seems to me to be a classic argument that can't really be quantified or proved. Fox hasn't been any faster than he is now at any point with Argyle (as far as I can tell). In 2016/17 he used to sit very deep in defence alongside a stronger defensive midfielder to make up for it, and last season we protected him in CDM with two stronger, athletic midfielders in front of him, protection he hasn't had for most of this season. We're currently starting him in RCM and prioritising Songo'o in CDM, so he's obviously going to be more exposed to strong dribblers taking him on.
In actual fact - again, short of putting tracking devices on them or hacking into Argyle's data, neither of which I have the interest or capacity to do, I cannot prove any of this - I'm willing to gamble that he's just as athletic as he has been throughout the past 2.25 seasons, and that the system is just exposing him more than it has in that time.

 

[Metal Green Mickey]

I dont know why it is but Sarcevic influences Argyle after he has played a handful of games. Everytime I see him after an injury he doesnt really make an impact until at least having a four or five game run in the team. He seems one of those players who needs game time. Yet when he gets a run his physicality sticks out a mile in our team. Look at our midfield. Who else has the shape and bulk of him.

When it comes to Fox I think it is simply really. He is one of the very few that can pass a ball accurtately on a regularly basis. His experience from a higher league helps him keep calm and assured at our level.

Im afraid you only have to watch the game on a saturday and see how we actually play to see that our passing as a team is awful. The question I would ask is this. Does Fox stick out in all these stats because he is good at passing and keeping the ball or is it because the rest of our teams disturbtion is so bad it makes him look better than he really is?

Last season I got a hell of a lack of stick for banging on about lack of pace in our side. This year its comes to fruitarian. However, it isn't just pace it was about energy levels and the ability to get around the pitch. You only have to see our midfield to understand we have an issue because we don't have the "legs" in the team to press opposition.

I think the stats are a very good read. They single out areas where you can see key improvements could make a difference. However, do they really show things like the fact that Adams plays one up front and the supporting players are 20 yards behind that player so that is why its difficult for that front player to keep the ball. Or the fact the balls played into him at not to his feet or chest but above his head where its forever a 6ft plus defenders ball.

For me its evidence with your eyes that some stats just will not pick up. However, like others have said a great read.

 

[Nobby]

I dont know why it is but Sarcevic influences Argyle after he has played a handful of games. Everytime I see him after an injury he doesnt really make an impact until at least having a four or five game run in the team. He seems one of those players who needs game time. Yet when he gets a run his physicality sticks out a mile in our team. Look at our midfield. Who else has the shape and bulk of him.

Because one thing that nearly all of us have lamented in the past 5/6 games is the lack of pressing the opposition. It's the one thing that Sarcevic is quite comfortably the best at. For all the cries of people saying Sarcevic always looks overweight and unfit, nothing could be further from the truth.

 

[Cobi Budge]

Sarcevic has a bit of a pigeon chest which leads people to think he's overweight whens he's definitely not, in fact when he plays I'd say he expels more energy than anyone else on the pitch. He has a great engine.

 

[JannerinCardiff]

Sarcevic has a bit of a pigeon chest which leads people to think he's overweight whens he's definitely not, in fact when he plays I'd say he expels more energy than anyone else on the pitch. He has a great engine.

Totally agree.

 

[davie nine]

That’s 3 in a row, now 4, with that opinion. Perhaps that myth has, finally, been dispelled.

Hopefully, he will start playing and prove it in the next few weeks.

Tomorrow would be a good start.

 

[ming the merciless]

Hi Nick. Loving you stats and you reasoned analysis. Can't argue with a single word you have written. As several others have already said. Your stats and conclusions certainly explain a few things that I thought were true but couldn't begin to explain why. Please keep these coming.

They are without a doubt the most interesting read I have ever come across on this site.

 

[NickSS]

It has taken a while to write, but the second part on the defence is now live:
Part 5: Defensive disaster II
It focuses on defensive errors, individual players and Macey.

 

[Lesley Somerville]

Another great read. It just makes sense of where we are and what needs to be done. Hope Fox is fit for Saturday!

 

[davie nine]

You certainly provide a different opinion of Joe Riley, Nick. My main concern was that, against Blackpool, when in an advanced position, he got no cover whatsoever from O’Keefe.

Kelvin Mellor often got similar criticism when he was in an advanced position but a wing back must always rely on being covered by a less advanced colleague.

 

[NickSS]

Can't really comment on Mellor, it's so far back that my memory would be skewed. I did feel he was a better defender than appreciated, and it doesn't surprise me that he's found success at League One level.
Riley has been unfortunate to play in poor sides so far. As the articles argue, sorting the midfield will sort out most of the rest of the side; we saw that last night. For me, he's the better RB.

 

[Cobi Budge]

I said after the Portsmouth game that Joe Riley was unfairly made a scapegoat, he got absolutely no cover from O'Keefe whatsoever and was continuously left with no chance 2v1.

I think Moore is doing well though & should keep his place.

 

[s whitey92]

Please keep these blog posts going... extremely well written & so interesting. By far the most in-depth tactical articles relating to Argyle I've ever seen. Intrigued as to where you get all the statistics from? Once again, thank you, keep up the good work!