Relegation odds

[Biggs]

I did this too and i've literally been dripping in shame ever since. I can't believe i did it, not as I want to happen but I simply thought it I "win" then it will cover most of my ST next season. It was as simple as that.

£35 I have at 8/1, which just seemed far too high. I still feel utterly duplicitous. Appreciate someone will - somewhat understandably say - well cancel the bet and the shame will soon go away. Not an unfair point.

I have been thinking for a while now I just think somehow, by width of a toenail, we'll survive maybe thats there in my subconscious when I did it.

Why on earth would you feel bad? As I say, I've done it a few times in these sorts of situations... the only time I ever bet.

It's simple, you don't want to see the money, but if you do then it's a small consolation and you can redirect some of the money to the club too

 

[GU7Green]

Why on earth would you feel bad? As I say, I've done it a few times in these sorts of situations... the only time I ever bet.

It's simple, you don't want to see the money, but if you do then it's a small consolation and you can redirect some of the money to the club too

dunno mate, I hardly ever bet and it didnt feel right, but I still went and did it!

I'd happily give the £300 or whatever it is to charity if we stayed up, but clearly thats not how betting works!

Like an amazing holiday, I just desperately don't want being in the championship to end. I looked at the league one table the other night over a beer, the night before Millwall, and I just felt so flat looking there at Northampton and Wigan and Burton.

I'm not - at ALL - ready to go back.

 

[Green Flash]

dunno mate, I hardly ever bet and it didnt feel right, but I still went and did it!

I'd happily give the £300 or whatever it is to charity if we stayed up, but clearly thats not how betting works!

Like an amazing holiday, I just desperately don't want being in the championship to end. I looked at the league one table the other night over a beer, the night before Millwall, and I just felt so flat looking there at Northampton and Wigan and Burton.

I'm not - at ALL - ready to go back.

If you had asked me in the first half of the season I would have said the same. To be honest though this last couple of months has felt like a slog that I have not really enjoyed. We are so under resourced compared to our competitors and the quality of our performances and the matches in general has fallen off a cliff.

I do not want to be relegated of course, but I prefer us doing well in league one than being completely un-competitive in the championship. If we cannot be funded to a level we can compete I think I would rather stay in the lower leagues. Put another way, Simon is hopeful of new investment over the summer, but if I knew now we were not going to get any and that we will have the lowest budget next season, I actually think I may rather be relegated now than endure another season like the last couple of months trying to compete with championship teams with a league one squad.

 

[oldage]

I don’t watch Birmingham and I suspect you don’t either, so I can only base my confidence on what I see from us and that leaves my confidence very low. That’s why I posted the stats, which show factually, that Birmingham are barely better than us when it comes to goal scoring.

If I was a betting man I would put money on Stansfield scoring on Saturday. No I don't watch Birmingham..

 

[oldage]

dunno mate, I hardly ever bet and it didnt feel right, but I still went and did it!

I'd happily give the £300 or whatever it is to charity if we stayed up, but clearly thats not how betting works!

Like an amazing holiday, I just desperately don't want being in the championship to end. I looked at the league one table the other night over a beer, the night before Millwall, and I just felt so flat looking there at Northampton and Wigan and Burton.

I'm not - at ALL - ready to go back.

At the end of the day it is only football.Nobody has died. Most of us will still turn up regardless of who we are playing.

 

[GU7Green]

At the end of the day it is only football.Nobody has died. Most of us will still turn up regardless of who we are playing.

yeah that is very fair, cant argue with that.

 

[Greenscombe]

If I was a betting man I would put money on Stansfield scoring on Saturday. No I don't watch Birmingham..

He will be going all out to relegate Argyle I'm sure. The thing in our favour is that he could score 10 himself and we only need to score 1 (and obvs keep Hull out)

 

[oldage]

He will be going all out to relegate Argyle I'm sure. The thing in our favour is that he could score 10 himself and we only need to score 1 (and obvs keep Hull out)

Sadly he has much chance of scoring 10 as we have of keeping Hull out and scoring.

 

[slingsbypobble]

I don’t typically gamble, but I always bet on Argyle to lose/go down in these circumstances.

1) a superstition thing because I never win bets. 2) I never ever want to see the money, but if the worst happens at least there’s a very small consolation. If we stay up then in my head it’s a cheap £50 payment to do so.

I've had the odd flutter, I did quite well betting against us towards the end of the DA era and during the Ryan Lowe points drought.

This season I haven't won a single bet, therefore I've bet on a Hull win based on that record (i.e. I hope I lose).

Part of me feels like we 'deserve' to go down after a dreadful 2nd half of the season, but my biggest worry is getting back to Championship after relegation.

 

[Balham Green]

If you had asked me in the first half of the season I would have said the same. To be honest though this last couple of months has felt like a slog that I have not really enjoyed. We are so under resourced compared to our competitors and the quality of our performances and the matches in general has fallen off a cliff.

I do not want to be relegated of course, but I prefer us doing well in league one than being completely un-competitive in the championship. If we cannot be funded to a level we can compete I think I would rather stay in the lower leagues. Put another way, Simon is hopeful of new investment over the summer, but if I knew now we were not going to get any and that we will have the lowest budget next season, I actually think I may rather be relegated now than endure another season like the last couple of months trying to compete with championship teams with a league one squad.

I agree. Last few months really not enjoyable. Tortuous at times. Even the scratchy wins.
I do think if we go down we could struggle next season though. Once you lose momentum difficult to get it back.

 

[slingsbypobble]

Before I saw this thread I cheered myself up a bit by putting what I consider genuine percentage probabilities of outcomes for our game and Brum’s down and doing a bit of maths.

My judgement would be…..

Argyle win – 40% (Hull the better side but home advantage will be huge).
Argyle draw – 20% (neither side happy with draw)
Argyle Loss – 40%

Brum win – 65% (I really think Norwich will field a weakened team and not be too bothered …. but decent fringe players may still want to impress)
Brum draw - 20%
Brum Loss – 15%

Now the maths …..
We will survive with five combinations of outcomes …… a win for us AND a draw in both; AND a draw for us & a loss for them; AND a loss for both; AND a loss for us & draw for them.

Probability of survival = 0.4 + ( 0.2 x 0.2) + (0.2 x 0.15) + (0.4 x 0.15) + (0.4 x 0.2) = 0.61 = 61%

That sounds much better than my initial gut feel (based on Norwich not needing a result) even with what I think is fairly pessimistic assessments.

PS .... A much simpler sum is probablity of us going down is them winning and us not winning = 0.65 x 0.6 = 0.39 = 39% .... i.e 61% we'd survive.

I like this analysis but the 'headline' stat isn't much better than 50/50!

My glass is 61% empty.

 

[crownhill pilgrim]

Yes, the season had two halves, pre-Cardiff-at-home and post-Cardiff-at-home.

In fact, the Cardiff home game was on January 20th, so only over three months ago and almost two-thirds into the season.

 

[Balham Green]

Also relies on Sheff Wed getting at least a point but must say I wouldn't rule it out. Us and Brum both know we must win so will play that way accordingly. It isn't beyond the realms of fantasy that we do indeed both win. Then its all on Sheff Wed and Blackburn and I'd rather be in Wednesday's shoes there, than Blackburn.

Sounds like a fantasy to me.

 

[Rissole and chips]

Is there a points deduction for Swansea in the offing?

No we dont spend enough money to break sustainability rules.

I often look at odds to check out what bookies think. And they regularly chuck in something daft like that

 

[GreenTommy]

I did this too and i've literally been dripping in shame ever since. I can't believe i did it, not as I want to happen but I simply thought it I "win" then it will cover most of my ST next season. It was as simple as that.

£35 I have at 8/1, which just seemed far too high. I still feel utterly duplicitous. Appreciate someone will - somewhat understandably say - well cancel the bet and the shame will soon go away. Not an unfair point.

I have been thinking for a while now I just think somehow, by width of a toenail, we'll survive maybe thats there in my subconscious when I did it.

i actually feel the same mate, but that shows you care! i rather us stay up than win 240 quid, but if the worst happens it can go towards a new shirt/ST. No shame in that.