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Positive thoughts

CarolinaGreen

🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Jun 10, 2006
1,791
1,645
Raleigh, North Carolina
I’m not sure it’s any more or less nonsense than any other prediction format, including all the postulations on here. It’s just another perspective. On the one hand the odds are heavily affected by the sums of money placed, esp on the exchanges but also, most bookies have extremely sophisticated software, factoring in every possible angle and (current season) historical detail.

Were it not for my moral reluctance to ever bet against us, at 7/1 it’d be worth staking a wedge. If we stay up, wonderful, who cares about the stake. If we don’t, then that’s the next season ticket paid and a nice bit more for the club shop.
I get your point about moral relunctance. I did because a) they just allowed sports betting in this state and b) I’m incredibly unlucky, so it was good ‘juju’. It worked for the first three games under nancesnip, but not the last so I’ve not placed a bet for Millwall. Ironically I took the winnings and put it on a draw at 80 minutes into the RM vs Barca game. Another illustration of my luck.
 

West Norwood Green

🌟Sparksy Mural🌟
Jan 3, 2004
281
139
I can see you'd have been cursing your luck with that RM v Barca game. Frustrating!
Betting - it really is just maths and especially probability and the maths will always win in the end. I love the old line 'if you want to make a million from gambling, you need to start with ten million' but when I hear of people who have made a fortune from it, I am fascinated. Though not fascinated enough to really look in to it and find out how :ROFLMAO:
I'm on a 'dangerous' path with this 7/1 price, of convincing myself it's a sort of win/win. I'll sleep on it. Hope your luck improves, unless you back Argyle again of course...
 
Jul 4, 2008
809
318
newton abbot
If Argyle were going to lose away, it was bound to be to Stoke. Much of what we said is good about Schuey, came to fruition for Stoke. He is a bloody good manager and tactician. He got the tactics right. He knew the players, he knows our club. It will be much different against Millwall. There will be no psychological mind games, no player and tactical familiaraties. Personally, I can see our team collectively lifted and getting on with the job in hand.
 
Oct 10, 2018
1,012
944
Lets not get too despondant, we are still in a very good position with survival well and truly in our hands. This is how i see the seqson panning out (i hope im correct in that we survive):

Argyle fixtures/ predicted results:

Millwall (A) - 0 pts
Hull (H) - 1pts

Finish 49 pts

Huddersfield fixtures/ predicted results:
Bham (H) 3 pts
Ipswich (A) 0pts

Finish 47 pts

Shef wed fixtures/ predicted results:

WBA (H) 1 pts
Sunderland (A) 3 pts

Finish 51 pts

Birmingham fixtures/ predicted results:
Huddersfield (a) 0 pts
Norwich (H) 1 pt

Finish 47 pts

Blackburn fixtures/ predicted results:
Coventry (H) 0 pts
Leicester (A) 0 pts

FInish 49 pts


Therefore with our superior goal difference i think 1 point does it for us. A win on saturday would be massive. If im Argyle manager i would go ultra safe/ pragmatic knowing 1 point or better probably keeps us up!
That's why if you were argyle manager we would loose on Saturday, if you going into a fixture playing for a point, your asking the players to go in with a mentality they haven't had all season, your concede possession and invite pressure, so in 99.9 out of 100 times your loose.

Argyle just need to play opposition and not the occasion. Keep game simple and get crosses into box,
 
Oct 10, 2018
1,012
944
My concern with Argyle for a large part of season is the obsession with having to play three 4 passes out of the back through MF to strikers. We need to use wingers more for me Mumba on left and Bundu on the right to.tale it up the flanks, and play the angled ball across the penalty area, Waine will get the position to capitalise.
 
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Oct 10, 2018
1,012
944
I hate this part of the modern game when LB or RB forgets their a defensive position bombs it up the pitch, this is why you have wingers. Bring back Giggs or Andre Kanchelkis,
 

CarolinaGreen

🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Jun 10, 2006
1,791
1,645
Raleigh, North Carolina
I can see you'd have been cursing your luck with that RM v Barca game. Frustrating!
Betting - it really is just maths and especially probability and the maths will always win in the end. I love the old line 'if you want to make a million from gambling, you need to start with ten million' but when I hear of people who have made a fortune from it, I am fascinated. Though not fascinated enough to really look in to it and find out how :ROFLMAO:
I'm on a 'dangerous' path with this 7/1 price, of convincing myself it's a sort of win/win. I'll sleep on it. Hope your luck improves, unless you back Argyle again of course...
Well if you did win you could always buy a season ticket, or buy out the Argyle store :D
 
Apr 15, 2008
4,221
198
London
I get your point about moral relunctance. I did because a) they just allowed sports betting in this state and b) I’m incredibly unlucky, so it was good ‘juju’. It worked for the first three games under nancesnip, but not the last so I’ve not placed a bet for Millwall. Ironically I took the winnings and put it on a draw at 80 minutes into the RM vs Barca game. Another illustration of my luck.
I got 8/1 so put a few on. If we get a point on Saturday it's forgotten, if we go down, that will pay for a nice summer holiday.
 
Sep 6, 2006
16,862
4,520
I would like to believe we could get 3 points against Millwall but I fear that our current tactics will be found out very quickly I despeately hope I'm wrong. The other thing that bothers me is while ceriain
players will give thier all some others might be thinking they will be moved on if we survive and will not give 110% that will need, once
again I hope I'm wrong, and apologise to any player I may have thought that of.
More nonsense. Where do people get these daft ideas from? I can see it now. I'm a professional footballer who will try and get relegated to ensure my contract next season!!!
 
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Oct 10, 2018
1,012
944
More nonsense. Where do people get these daft ideas from? I can see it now. I'm a professional footballer who will try and get relegated to ensure my contract next season!!!


Yep agreed, not for a second does a professional sportsman set out to accept failure, it goes against the drive and determination that's needed to get there in the first place. Ridiculous comments