Plymouth Argyle v Portsmouth - the build up + Q&A

[Winchelsea Green]

Notice that the odds on an Argyle win are slightly shortening but Pompey are still strong favourites.

Argyle now 9/4 or 23/10, while Pompey are 11/10 or 6/5.

Any one having a small onterest on any market? Argyle to win are generally 11/1 1-0; 16/1 2-0; 10/1 2-1; 33/1 3-0.
First goalscorers are 16/1 Mayor (penalty taker); 18/1 Grant (free kick specialist) or 22/1 Camara (recently shoot on sight).

Do people actually enjoy betting on Argyle games, or does it just add to the pressure of watching and hoping?

I often have a bet when Argyle are on Sky. Tonight - 60 bookings points or more as the last game in my weekend accumulator (which would bring up a fourfold) and I've also done Argyle to win/both teams to score at 6/1. Both seemed like good value to me.

Re Camara - to score anytime at 15/2 looks the bet PFL, although Conor Grant to score from outside the area at 12/1 might tempt a few.

But I'd forego all potential winnings just to beat Pompey. The two sides of my family hail from Portsmouth and Plymouth, so this has always been the biggest game for me. Exeter ? Nah !

 

[PL2 3DQ]

Nouble in for Jephcott will probably be the only change.
I wouldn't be surprised to see McCormick on the bench instead of Ruddy, Abraham will come in as well on the bench and I have a sneaky feeling he'll come on before Telford and become a match winner.

 

[slingsbypobble]

The bookies have Argyle as outsiders at 3/1 and Portsmouth at odds on (19/20). Not denying Portsmouth are a strong test but the form make those odds ridiculous.

I thought the same. Not a lot in it on recent form, and they've got a few players out with injury.

All that said I do think it'll be a draw but if we can maintain that sparkling form both sides of half time then we're in with a shout

 

[Voice of Reason]

There is always value in betting in League 1 and 2 - if you know the teams and players well enough.

My personal high, then low and high again, was a number of years ago at London Road - Wotton was out injured and having scored a penalty in a pre season friendly i had £20 on Hasney Aljofree to be first goal-scorer at 66/1 (he had scored once in about 100 games at that point).
Sure enough - penalty Argyle - my old mucker Hasney stepped up, it seemed to take forever to get to the spot kick, then saved, not only had Argyle missed a penalty, i'd just lost out on £1350 - but much to my hearts joy, the referee order a retake for encroachment, better still Hasney wasn't put off and took the penalty again - this time no mistake. Sadly i cant remember if we won i spent the 2nd half organising a bloody good night out.

For what its worth - the referee scares me tonight, he has the highest red card percentage for any referee in L1 & L2 over the last 100 games!!

 

[Martyn]

There is always value in betting in League 1 and 2 - if you know the teams and players well enough.

My personal high, then low and high again, was a number of years ago at London Road - Wotton was out injured and having scored a penalty in a pre season friendly i had £20 on Hasney Aljofree to be first goal-scorer at 66/1 (he had scored once in about 100 games at that point).
Sure enough - penalty Argyle - my old mucker Hasney stepped up, it seemed to take forever to get to the spot kick, then saved, not only had Argyle missed a penalty, i'd just lost out on £1350 - but much to my hearts joy, the referee order a retake for encroachment, better still Hasney wasn't put off and took the penalty again - this time no mistake. Sadly i cant remember if we won i spent the 2nd half organising a bloody good night out.

For what its worth - the referee scares me tonight, he has the highest red card percentage for any referee in L1 & L2 over the last 100 games!!

Regarding the referee, he was the one who sent off 2 Orient players in the first 20 mins, about 3/4 years back.

Totally correct decisions also

 

[Green 1886]

There is always value in betting in League 1 and 2 - if you know the teams and players well enough.

Totally agree with this. There always used to be HUGE value in the goalscorer markets. Even the ones based inside the ground continued to offer 33/1 and above on the likes of Wotton and Seip. They have tightened up considerably, when you consider Telfords odds are shorter than Hardie it shows they don’t really have much intel and the odds are probably algorithmic based on starts / goals for the season.
Both Moore and Edwards look good value given their recent exploits. Is Mayor definitely our penalty taker? Been so long since we had one.

 

[Winchelsea Green]

There is always value in betting in League 1 and 2 - if you know the teams and players well enough.

My personal high, then low and high again, was a number of years ago at London Road - Wotton was out injured and having scored a penalty in a pre season friendly i had £20 on Hasney Aljofree to be first goal-scorer at 66/1 (he had scored once in about 100 games at that point).
Sure enough - penalty Argyle - my old mucker Hasney stepped up, it seemed to take forever to get to the spot kick, then saved, not only had Argyle missed a penalty, i'd just lost out on £1350 - but much to my hearts joy, the referee order a retake for encroachment, better still Hasney wasn't put off and took the penalty again - this time no mistake. Sadly i cant remember if we won i spent the 2nd half organising a bloody good night out.

For what its worth - the referee scares me tonight, he has the highest red card percentage for any referee in L1 & L2 over the last 100 games!!

Regarding the referee, he was the one who sent off 2 Orient players in the first 20 mins, about 3/4 years back.

Totally correct decisions also

AKA "The Card Shark", Breakspear's stats can be found here https://www.soccerbase.com/referees/ref ... ee_id=1318

If you go back a year you'll see that he's reffed Shrewsbury v Pompey 2 years running and managed to book 7 players and sent 1 off on both occasions. He had a relatively quiet day the last time I saw him at Home Park, with just the 5 yellow cards v Charlton.

 

[Balham Green]

Is there any procedure today, to collect the match day programme from Home Park today. ?

Collected mine from the ticket office window on Saturday morning. I think they're open until 5.30pm today.

Are they an essential business then?

 

[Lundan Cabbie]

Seems at bit unfair that the referee gets the blame for when players commit red and yellow card offences.

 

[Voice of Reason]

LC/Martyn - i know you are part of the referee is always right and i see that argument perfectly well.

What cannot be denied that for a referee doing 100 L1 & L2 games, the average red cards shown is around 6 per 100 games. In that same time Brakspear is up around 25 (i've not checked exactly but its near that).

Now are we to assume CB has been unlucky and had far more games that players have misbehaved, or do we see it logically that he enforces the laws of the game in a stricter manner than most?

For me its clearly the latter, now i'm not saying its wrong, the perceived wisdom the game is better for having 22 players on the park, a referee should try to do that unless he feels he has no other option. CB doesn't referee like that.

In the Premier league, their are greater discrepancies which are easier to explain, certain referees get the "big" games one would expect an official who get the Merseyside Derby/North London derby to perhaps show more cards as the tackles are often more out of control than a standard game.

 

[slingsbypobble]

Notice that the odds on an Argyle win are slightly shortening but Pompey are still strong favourites.

Argyle now 9/4 or 23/10, while Pompey are 11/10 or 6/5.

Any one having a small onterest on any market? Argyle to win are generally 11/1 1-0; 16/1 2-0; 10/1 2-1; 33/1 3-0.
First goalscorers are 16/1 Mayor (penalty taker); 18/1 Grant (free kick specialist) or 22/1 Camara (recently shoot on sight).

Do people actually enjoy betting on Argyle games, or does it just add to the pressure of watching and hoping?

I bet on most Argyle games. For what felt like a long time towards the end of the Adams era, betting against Argyle was easy money.

I've got a bet on a win because I like the odds, and a smaller bet on draw to recover my money.

 

[Winchelsea Green]

“... he enforces the laws of the game in a stricter manner than most?”

Having spent an awful lot of time analysing different refs card stats for betting purposes, I have to say that I entirely agree with this.

 

[Caribou]

Seems at bit unfair that the referee gets the blame for when players commit red and yellow card offences.

I dunno. It is often the case that lots of cards means a ref had lost control of a game so falls back on the only thing he has left. I quite recognise that sometimes the players don’t leave them much choice, of course.

Whatever, really looking forward to this evening’s game.

 

[Wotton is God]

Am I the only one who was sat here at 7 wondering where the players were?