Bottom 6 all terrible?

[Jon with no H]

In order for Birmingham to overtake us the minimum they need is 4 pts from 12. Thats if Argyle lose all 4....
If Argyle can win 1 of the 4 last games then Brum need 7 pts minimum to get above us......i think Brum will be gone.
Its the final 3rd spot that makes me nervous.....we have never been in the bottom 3 all season and have the best goal difference. Ill be physically sick if we lose a couple games by the odd goal and draw the other 2 and then find out one of the pack has beating us on goal difference last game.

We can do this....its in our hands COYGs

One thing that seems apparent at the moment is the teams around us are struggling to score goals, save for Sheff Wed getting 2 at QPR, almost everyone else is finding it hard to exceed the 1 we have in each of the last two games.

That's the only positive thing I can see at the moment, when you combine it with the fact that for a while we were comfortably second on the goals conceded naughty step before Huddersfield and Blackburn overtook us and Wednesday caught us up.

 

[Fergy]

Given our current trajectory, I am just glad there’s only 4 games to go. Even if there were double that remaining I’d be far less confident.

 

[oldage]

I can't help but worry that if we do stay up, then we'll only be next season's Rotherham and end up as whipping boys for all. Almost the whole squad will need overhauling and regardless of Whittaker commanding a big fee I just don't see where the resources will come from.

Plenty of time to worry about next season. Let’s concentrate on staying in the championship for now. A lot will change in the close season with a new manager/ head coach and new players.

 

[SWTT]

I can't help but worry that if we do stay up, then we'll only be next season's Rotherham and end up as whipping boys for all. Almost the whole squad will need overhauling and regardless of Whittaker commanding a big fee I just don't see where the resources will come from.

This mindset is based on recency bias in decision making, overlooking that management had by and large made decisions with more positive outcomes than negative from June 2019 to January 2024.

There's a good ever developing structure in place at the club, filled with good hard working people. If we can stay up I have confidence that there will be lessons learned that we can strengthen on.

We're always going to be at a disadvantage in this league unless bottomless pocket investors rock up, but I think we can go back to working smarter than others and squeeze more from our resources than others are able with greater backing.

We're on par with 7 other clubs in this division at the bottom, languishing at the bottom, which have significantly greater budgets than our own. There's really little basis to suggest we'd go down like Rotherham ffs.

 

[Hargyle]

I reckon this thread must resemble one of Fozzie’s moral boosting pre-match team talks.

I hope Nance, however, has noticed that there are three teams in a worse position than us, that just one goal may be all we need from our four remaining (winnable) games, and doesn’t allow the team to succumb to the self fulfilling PASOTI prophecy of relegation.

 

[CarolinaGreen]

I can't help but worry that if we do stay up, then we'll only be next season's Rotherham and end up as whipping boys for all. Almost the whole squad will need overhauling and regardless of Whittaker commanding a big fee I just don't see where the resources will come from.

While I'm leaning towards that, there are a few things that can offset that fear a little.

1) The extra money from being in the Championship.
2) SH suggests a larger potential external investment sum compared to if we were in L1.
3) I think if we go back to the data driven analysis we can strengthen the squad more efficiently than others.
4) A new manager. If we get that wrong again, sure we're 'Rotherhamed'. If we get it right, I can see us playing around in mid-table.

 

[GU7Green]

Plenty of time to worry about next season. Let’s concentrate on staying in the championship for now. A lot will change in the close season with a new manager/ head coach and new players.

My sentiments too.

And if we were next season’s Rotherham then whilst it would be extremely painful we’d at least have that extra injection of cash from the new broadcast deal to take down with us, that I’m sure would cheer us all up when we’re all on our way to Fleetwood.

All jokes aside; that would really benefit the club medium term wise.

 

[Clyst Green]

That Millwall result against Leicester was the sickener - I’d convinced myself they were on the way down after their Huddersfield defeat. Best for us that they beat Cardiff and draw clear now - before we play them.

If only so we’ve got a chance of getting out of the ground alive at full time…

 

[Dreamgreen]

I just don't see where we are going to score enough goals to beat any of the last 4 teams we play. I can see us perhaps getting a couple of draws, but sadly don't think that will be enough. Of course I hope I'm completely wrong - In fact I frequently am, so fingers crossed.

We scored to against Boro ... with the same squad ... and outplayed them.

We are as inconsistent as all the other teams around us.

 

[TimHarris]

If we‘re relying on two teams from three to have results we can better then that Huddersfield v Birmingham game worries me.

If someone wins that it almost makes it two teams from two we need to better - and one of those is Wednesday who have effectively played this season with a ten game handicap.

 

[CarolinaGreen]

Broad generalisation of course but visiting other sites it seems every fansite is convinced their team is the most likely to go down FWIW bookies now have Brum and Weds joint favourites, Hudds just above and us then at 2/1 for the drop (Skybet)

I think it's purely based on currently position (mostly), and they have no clue. One round and all that can turn on it's head.

Edit: I had a flutter on a few pretty good odds back in early March. Stoke at +650 (American odds are basically $1 in this case pays out $6.50), Birmingham +300, Blackburn +250, and to ward off evil spirits I put one of us for +600. I might note it was all promotional money I used to bet, as I don't like to bet big, but it's $180 in their free money across the board.

 

[Joe Totale]

Plenty of time to worry about next season. Let’s concentrate on staying in the championship for now. A lot will change in the close season with a new manager/ head coach and new players.

This summer will be as close to a blank slate as possible for the new manager with so many players and staff members likely leaving in the summer.

A good appointment will really be able to put their make on the club.

 

[Joe Totale]

If we‘re relying on two teams from three to have results we can better then that Huddersfield v Birmingham game worries me.

If someone wins that it almost makes it two teams from two we need to better - and one of those is Wednesday who have effectively played this season with a ten game handicap.

Blackburn v Sheff Wed is the big one in my book. If Blackburn don't get any points from that I don't think they'll get any points from any of their other 3 games. That means only 1 point to get above them.

However, we don't want Wednesday getting any points either!

A draw would be best, then if we get 1 win that may just be enough to scrape into 21st...

 

[Said old Green]

While I'm leaning towards that, there are a few things that can offset that fear a little.

1) The extra money from being in the Championship.
2) SH suggests a larger potential external investment sum compared to if we were in L1.
3) I think if we go back to the data driven analysis we can strengthen the squad more efficiently than others.
4) A new manager. If we get that wrong again, sure we're 'Rotherhamed'. If we get it right, I can see us playing around in mid-table.

You see item no3 and our fans citing our " data driven approach makes us smarter than others" does my head in.

Do fans honestly think that we are the only club to adopt a data driven approach?

Loads and loads of clubs have been doing this for years and id give you Brentford and Brighton as prime examples.

You can have all the data in the world but unless you have a decent budget and are prepared to take a risk on investment you have no chance of progressing in the Championship and beyond.

 

[Neilio]

Bookies are saying we are 5/2 for relegation.

The odds also indicate it’s any 2 from 4.

Wednesday 8/11
Huddersfield EVENS
Birmingham 11/10

Then a gap to Blackburn at 11/2 and Stoke at 12/1!

Of course, things can change, but the permutations of all remaining games will be reflected in those prices.

If it wasn’t for our goal difference, I would suggest we’d be about 6/5.