Thought I’d resurrect this thread again – if you recall we’d calculated that after our disastrous start to the season we needed to average at least 1.33 points per game (ppg) for the remainder of the season to reach the golden target of 51 points which almost certainly would mean survival.
To say that a few posters didn’t exactly ……..ahem……….think this likely is putting it mildly . Well since that low ebb after Fleetwood when we’d amassed the grand total of 5 points from 12 games we then went on to get 29 points from our next 15 games …… an astonishing 1.93 ppg, which over a season would give nearly 89 points which would be, not quite league-winning but certainly enough for runners-up. That is amazing – and over 15 games can’t be dismissed as a statistical quirk or blip in luck.
In terms of hitting our 51 points target we now only need to average 0.89 ppg – which would be genuine relegation form (41 points over a season). If we carry on at the same rate of 1.93 ppg we will get 70 points which was 3 points short of the play-offs last season. So we actually need to step up slightly to just over 2ppg to reach that …….. which still looks really unlikely TBH*…… but then again less unlikely than our last 15 game haul.
*EDIT TO ADD...... There is a precedence for this - Barnsley went from the relegation zone on Christmas day 2015 to WIN the L1 play-offs in May 2016