51 Points?

[mervyn]

We need to match the form of the four teams above us +4 points. Hardly impossible, and we've already turned the corner with 6 points from four games.

The returns of Taylor, Threlkeld and captain Luke will be massive towards maintaining that consistent mid table form.

If we match the 4 teams above us +4 points we still finish in the bottom 4 due to goal difference.

Only Northampton have a worse goal difference.

Forget everyone else. If we reach 51 points (in fact probably ‘only’ 50) then we WILL be safe. We have to average 1.33 points per game over 30 games. Last season MK Dons finished 12th doing exactly that over the full season. So the question is can we be a mid-table team for the rest of the season? Well of course we bloody can. I’m not saying we definitely will – only a complete moron would “GUARANTEE” any outcome – but we have competed against the best in the division and shown we are capable of picking up points. Our bad start though means we have no room now for runs of bad form or bad luck so from that perspective the odds are against us but it is certainly is do-able.

Incidentally I remember an interview with Alan Curbishley talking about relegation dog-fights a few years ago. He said that fans always worry about scoring more, always desperate for wins so demanding attacking play and calling for a new striker to rescue them. He reckoned that is the wrong approach – the most important thing for a relegation threatened team is to be solid defensively. If you don’t concede many then you are always in the game with a chance, always able to nick a game or scramble a point. Just saying like……..

I know this is now a very old post, but this is a great thread, and over Christmas I read my son’s copy of soccernomics, which I found a very interesting read. The authors totally agree with Alan Curbishley’s view, and say it is absolutely statistically proven that any struggling team would do better to invest in one good defender rather than one good striker, because for such teams conceding one fewer goals per game will achieve more points than scoring one more.

 

[Ave IT]

I think our form will dip considerably following Toums’ departure but to average less than 0.89 points per game from now on would be pretty spectacular. My prediction for us to finish 14th at the end of the season is looking quite accurate at the moment.

I’m sure Toums will be missed but before we jump to conclusions if/when our results tail off it’s worth remembering that our last five games have been as kind as they reasonably could be – Oldham (H), MKD (A), Blackpool (A), Walsall (H) & Bury (H) – all teams in the lower half and 3 of them at home ……. Don’t get me wrong 13 points is still impressive and had to be hard won but our next five matches look much tougher – Doncaster (A), Wigan (H), Oldham (A), Blackburn (H) & Shrewsbury (A) – that’s the current top three and 3 away games …… I reckon anything more than 7 points would be really good going and it might well be worse if the luck is against us.

I hope I’m not tempting fate but the point I’m trying to make is that when we hit our next bad patch (which could well be these next five) we should bear that in mind before leaping up and down about how much of disaster it was losing Toums, or how we’re slipping back into the relegation dog fight, or how (insert name here) has lost form, or how the players have relaxed and need a kick up the backside, or Adams has lost the plot again etc. etc…….

 

[davie nine]

They’ll be there, keyboards at the ready.

 

[Metal Green Mickey]

The comment regarding the previous 5 fixture and the next 5 fixtures is a very valid point.

Losing Toums will be a blow because to find someone who is that good but also influences the rest of the teams performances like he did will be very difficult to find.

If we play with the same attacking intent as we have over recent games I am hoping we will be fine. I personally think we are still in a relegation battle because I am expecting that losing Toums will take some readjustment within the team. For a start that physical, calm presence we had (like we had when Nalis was here) is now gone and although Fox is good he needs a player next to him who has an engine to get up and down the pitch.

The majority of clubs will now look to strengthen. That means its very difficult to say based on current league postion just how much stronger or weaker these clubs will be, compared to before January.

What I think Toums has proven is that an experienced player with pedigree is better to have in our current situation than plucking a young reserve player with potential out from a higher league team. You are gambling more with the latter type of player in the hope that potential can be realised at a level of football they dont have much experience at.

Given Argyle's postion it will be a gamble if we go down this route.

 

[moles40]

I think our form will dip considerably following Toums’ departure but to average less than 0.89 points per game from now on would be pretty spectacular. My prediction for us to finish 14th at the end of the season is looking quite accurate at the moment.

I’m sure Toums will be missed but before we jump to conclusions if/when our results tail off it’s worth remembering that our last five games have been as kind as they reasonably could be – Oldham (H), MKD (A), Blackpool (A), Walsall (H) & Bury (H) – all teams in the lower half and 3 of them at home ……. Don’t get me wrong 13 points is still impressive and had to be hard won but our next five matches look much tougher – Doncaster (A), Wigan (H), Oldham (A), Blackburn (H) & Shrewsbury (A) – that’s the current top three and 3 away games …… I reckon anything more than 7 points would be really good going and it might well be worse if the luck is against us.

I hope I’m not tempting fate but the point I’m trying to make is that when we hit our next bad patch (which could well be these next five) we should bear that in mind before leaping up and

down about how much of disaster it was losing Toums, or how we’re slipping back into the relegation dog fight, or how (insert name here) has lost form, or how the players have relaxed and need a kick up the backside, or Adams has lost the plot again etc. etc…….

Stop being negative,we could easily win our next five,Wigan can’t score anymore,we should have beaten Shrewsbury Blackburn,leading in both games remember.