Why the Opening Day Result Doesn't Matter (sort of)

[Dan Ellard]

A weird quirk about our recent opening day results...
Last season we beat Blackpool. They finished above us.
19/20, beat Crewe. They finished above us.
18/19, lost to Walsall. We finished above them.
17/18, lost to Peterborough. We finished above them.
16/17, lost to Luton. We finished above them.
15/16, beat Wimbledon. They arguably finished above us (not in the league table but they went up and we didn't).
14/15, lost to Cambridge. We finished above them.

In fact, going back, in the past 20 seasons, there have been 14 definitive (non-draw) opening day results and 13 times out of 14 we've either lost and finished above the team that beat us, or won and finished below the team we defeated (the one exception being Southend in 13/14).

Also, our opening day results in our promotion and relegation seasons are interesting to compare.
Our opening day record in promotion seasons: W2, D2, L6.
Our opening day record in relegation seasons: W2, D5, L3.

Now of course I'm not saying we should deliberately tank it on Saturday, nor that these stats are anything more than coincidence. But it is perhaps worth considering that the result really doesn't have to have a bearing on how the season will go at all.

 

[RKB]

Interesting stats. But wouldn't it be wonderful to start with a Crewe away performance the season before last, rather than a Southend away under Sheridan, which was truly awful? After the last 18 months, that really would be something to savour.

 

[Dreamgreen]

That will be my crumb of comfort on the four hour drive home ... if ...

 

[Ray Stidwell]

The most outstanding opening day “quirk” I recall in League 1 was Norwich 1 Colchester 7 in Aug 2009, which season ended with Norwich as Champions, 9 points more than 2nd-placed Leeds!

 

[The Doctor]

The most outstanding opening day “quirk” I recall in League 1 was Norwich 1 Colchester 7 in Aug 2009, which season ended with Norwich as Champions, 9 points more than 2nd-placed Leeds!

Yes, and 6 days after that game Norwich sacked their manager - club favourite Brian Gunn -and replaced him with Paul Lambert - who was the manager of their opening day opponents Colchester...

 

[Ray Stidwell]

Wow! I’d not remembered that, Doc! I don’t see the respective chairmen doing that to either Paul Warne or Ryan Lowe!

 

[Sparkypete]

I went to the Wimbledon game, won 2-0, came away very impressed with Jervis and Wylde particularly. So as if to prove your point, I agree, let’s not get carried away.

 

[RKB]

I went to the Wimbledon game, won 2-0, came away very impressed with Jervis and Wylde particularly. So as if to prove your point, I agree, let’s not get carried away.

I always thought Jervis was underrated at Argyle. He always gave his all and was a threat, either down the right or the middle. He seemed to go right off the boil after leaving Argyle, not really getting a kick at Luton and then having underwhelming loan spells at Salford and AFC Wimbledon. Now in Finland. I'm not suggesting a return, as League 2 is probably his limit, but at 6'4" and reasonably mobile, an upgraded JJ would be the type of attacking player we could do with to complete our set of 4.

 

[Martin Thomas]

I'm old enough to remember when league tables weren't published until 10 games (I think) into the season. Now 90 minutes in and pundits are predicting the season's outcome on the strength of a narrow 1-0 victory or defeat. Madness!

 

[Metal Green Mickey]

The opening game results are important for confidence. You don’t want to be looking for your first win still after 5 games.

However, the most important thing is consistency of performances and that they are above average. If this happens, the results will come.

 

[DartPilgrim]

The opening game results are important for confidence. You don’t want to be looking for your first win still after 5 games.

However, the most important thing is consistency of performances and that they are above average. If this happens, the results will come.

Of course an opening game will give some confidence to a side , but as pointed out by the op it gives little bearing on how the season will progress and there is little sense in people over analysing the result or performance of that one game .

 

[Tugboat]

Try to win every game.

Simples

 

[DartPilgrim]

Try to win every game.

Simples

You might be onto something there Tuggers , as long as the fans don't get too upset if you don't or too excited if you do , at least not after one game .

 

[mutley marvel]

Well we won on the opening day of last season & got 5pts after the 1st 3 games

In October we played 6 won 3 drawn 1 lost 2

Everything was looking rosy then a couple of months down the line it went ******** up on a grand scale

The 1st day of the season is like the 1st day of school- new players desperate to impress the fans (teachers) hoping not to make a mistake & keep the (head teacher) manager happy

Everyone will be a nervous ball of energy- especially the fans after the long wait to see their team in the flesh

I am looking forward to Saturday but i am not going to give the team a hard time if we lose- it is game 1 of a 46 game season - but as someone has said the earlier you get points on the board it will settle the players down as you will not be chasing the illusive win after game 10

 

[PAFC150479]

So what your trying to say is if we win on Saturday, our winning as champions hope is over 😂😂😂