16/1 including the bookies overround of about 12% means true likelihood of around 5.2%. Given that this very occurrence happened last season, the starting chance of it happening twice in a row would be 0.27%
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- Thread starter Doc
- Start date
football-bet-data":p8te38lk said:
Only if you think the odds are correct - last season they clearly were not, which is why everyone piled in when they did, even this season I think they are probably too generous this early in the season
Oh and in deciding how to bet this season what happened last is completely irrelevant to the odds of it happening again
Which is why I said the starting chance of it happening twice in a row is 0.27% :thumbs:Green_Flash":5iy0s2gf said:
Last season the odds were about right, perhaps a little long. It was clear the Goalkeeper crisis could not continue, the red card situation had to improve and we had key players returning from injury.
The real improvement came when Toums, and Vyner arrived. Coupled with Lamerias bursting into form from nowhere and two reliable keepers (Roos and latterly Matthews).
This season, Taylor aside we have nobody out injured that will make a significant impact. Taylor has been injured more than he has been fit so that still remains a question mark. We have nobody suspended and have played the same goalkeeper all season. The loan market is crucial. 16/1 looks a bit tight to me this time around regardless of last season's achievements
Is Songo'o suspended after double yellow at Oxford? (Apologies, I'm not sure of the rules in this respect)
1/2 on Sam - ie for every £2 staked, you win £1 (+ your stake returned).
We are 20/1 for top half with Victor Chandler (or whatever name the trade under this week) - i was lucky enough to benefit from them offering 50/1 top half last year which paid for a very nice family holiday, not sure i have the same confidence or desire just yet to place that bet again. That said, comfortably the worst side i've seen this year was Coventry. We outplayed them for very large chunks with 10 men and they are 12th - so let's not kid ourselves that this division holds any fears. Confidence is a funny thing, when its gone you cant see the wood for the trees, but when you have it, anything is possible. Are we good enough to win a couple of homes games back to back? If we did that 20/1 would look generous.
We are 20/1 for top half with Victor Chandler (or whatever name the trade under this week) - i was lucky enough to benefit from them offering 50/1 top half last year which paid for a very nice family holiday, not sure i have the same confidence or desire just yet to place that bet again. That said, comfortably the worst side i've seen this year was Coventry. We outplayed them for very large chunks with 10 men and they are 12th - so let's not kid ourselves that this division holds any fears. Confidence is a funny thing, when its gone you cant see the wood for the trees, but when you have it, anything is possible. Are we good enough to win a couple of homes games back to back? If we did that 20/1 would look generous.
football-bet-data. Almost regardless of the club situation I think 16-1 on a club at the bottom of the table in the lower divisions after 1/4 of the season to reach top half is generous, I think it will happen more than 1 season in 16 - you don't need to become fantastic to finish top half, just pull it together. Hopefully we will, either with or without Adams. Of course we probably wont but we have more than a 1 in 16 chance in my opinion.
