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Mind-Blowing Stats / Facts

GreenThing

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Sep 13, 2003
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It's like my second favourite stat - the chances of any two players on a football pitch (including the ref) of having the same birthday is more than 50%..... even though (obviously) there are 365days and only 23 players. Combinations!
Apparently this was borne out in the women’s World Cup where the squad size was 23 and the right number of squads had two players with the same birthdays to prove it.
 
Dec 30, 2004
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It’s all about human perception. We’re told that you made the choice at 3/1 while the other door is 2/1, but in reality the game has been reset.

The human element also comes into the lottery. Should you choose the numbers 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6? The answer is no. But they have the same chance as any other sequences you might say, and that is the reason why not. Human perception tells us not to choose this numbers as they won’t come out, so the clever people who know that it makes no difference do choose them. And that is why you should not, they are the most popular numbers and if you win £1 million, you’ll be sharing the jackpot with 10,000 other winners.
The Monty Hall problem is not about perception, though - the odds actually do change thanks to the host's extra knowledge and the action he takes in choosing which door to open. The contestant should switch doors because that increases their chance of winning to 2/3.

Thare are numerous explanation pages online, but here's Wikipedia for detail.

I've always wondered if players who buy multiple lottery tickets every week using 'lucky numbers' fill in the same numbers on every ticket they buy. They should, really: if the numbers are so lucky, and the player has, say ten tickets, they'll win a much larger share of the payout if they own most of the winning tickets while someone else owns at least one as well.
 

GreenThing

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The Monty Hall problem is not about perception, though - the odds actually do change thanks to the host's extra knowledge and the action he takes in choosing which door to open. The contestant should switch doors because that increases their chance of winning to 2/3.

Thare are numerous explanation pages online, but here's Wikipedia for detail.

I've always wondered if players who buy multiple lottery tickets every week using 'lucky numbers' fill in the same numbers on every ticket they buy. They should, really: if the numbers are so lucky, and the player has, say ten tickets, they'll win a much larger share of the payout if they own most of the winning tickets while someone else owns at least one as well.
What I meant was that people’s perception of the odd not changing makes people believe that they have better chance of winning the car if they change their mind. I’m in agreement with you over this one.
 

Butternubs

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UY Scuti is a star so large, it would take a passenger jet flying at 700 miles per hour 20,000 years to go around its equator once.
 

Butternubs

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As the title says …… (NERD ALERT!! 🤓)

I drive my family mad with this stuff - My all time favourite was one I picked up from QI when Stephen Fry casually shuffled some playing cards then said: “I’m about to do something that nobody in History has ever done before and nobody will ever be able to repeat again”. Then he put the pack of cards on the table and said ….. “that pack of cards is utterly unique and has never been produced in that precise order before”……

To bang the point home – “the Milky Way galaxy may have 200 billion stars – and if every star had a planet, and every planet had 10 billion people and if every person on every planet shuffled a pack of cards once a second for a thousand years the chances of anybody re-creating my pack of cards is so infinitesimally small as to be virtually zero!”.

Boom! ……. Beat that!! :cool:

(To explain the maths – the number of permutations of a standard pack of playing cards is 52-factorial (written 52!) which is short hand for 52 x 51 x 50 x 49 x 48 x etc. etc. all the way down to x3 x2 x 1. That may not sound that big but if you work it out actually comes to over 8x 10^67 (8 with 67 zeros after it – so big there is no name for it). So the Milky way thing is….. 200billion x 10billion x (seconds in a thousand years) = 6.3 x 10^31 (6.3 with 31 zeros) so still vastly, vastly too small to have any real chance of reproducing the exact pack of cards..... Isn't that great? )
52 factorial is insane. This is one of my fav explainations of it:

This number is beyond astronomically large. I say beyond astronomically large because most numbers that we already consider to be astronomically large are mere infinitesimal fractions of this number. So, just how large is it? Let's try to wrap our puny human brains around the magnitude of this number with a fun little theoretical exercise. Start a timer that will count down the number of seconds from 52! to 0. We're going to see how much fun we can have before the timer counts down all the way.

Start by picking your favorite spot on the equator. You're going to walk around the world along the equator, but take a very leisurely pace of one step every billion years. The equatorial circumference of the Earth is 40,075,017 meters. Make sure to pack a deck of playing cards, so you can get in a few trillion hands of solitaire between steps. After you complete your round the world trip, remove one drop of water from the Pacific Ocean. Now do the same thing again: walk around the world at one billion years per step, removing one drop of water from the Pacific Ocean each time you circle the globe. The Pacific Ocean contains 707.6 million cubic kilometers of water. Continue until the ocean is empty. When it is, take one sheet of paper and place it flat on the ground. Now, fill the ocean back up and start the entire process all over again, adding a sheet of paper to the stack each time you've emptied the ocean.

Do this until the stack of paper reaches from the Earth to the Sun. Take a glance at the timer, you will see that the three left-most digits haven't even changed. You still have 8.063e67 more seconds to go. 1 Astronomical Unit, the distance from the Earth to the Sun, is defined as 149,597,870.691 kilometers. So, take the stack of papers down and do it all over again. One thousand times more. Unfortunately, that still won't do it. There are still more than 5.385e67 seconds remaining. You're just about a third of the way done.

To pass the remaining time, start shuffling your deck of cards. Every billion years deal yourself a 5-card poker hand. Each time you get a royal flush, buy yourself a lottery ticket. A royal flush occurs in one out of every 649,740 hands. If that ticket wins the jackpot, throw a grain of sand into the Grand Canyon. Keep going and when you've filled up the canyon with sand, remove one ounce of rock from Mt. Everest. Now empty the canyon and start all over again. When you've leveled Mt. Everest, look at the timer, you still have 5.364e67 seconds remaining. Mt. Everest weighs about 357 trillion pounds. You barely made a dent. If you were to repeat this 255 times, you would still be looking at 3.024e64 seconds. The timer would finally reach zero sometime during your 256th attempt.
 

Lousy Pint

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Sep 23, 2005
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The Monty Hall problem is not about perception, though - the odds actually do change thanks to the host's extra knowledge and the action he takes in choosing which door to open. The contestant should switch doors because that increases their chance of winning to 2/3.

Thare are numerous explanation pages online, but here's Wikipedia for detail.
The trouble is Micky, you're assuming the contestant wants to win the car. What if he/she wants a goat?!!?
 
Apr 15, 2004
3,853
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East Devon
52 factorial is insane. This is one of my fav explainations of it:

This number is beyond astronomically large. I say beyond astronomically large because most numbers that we already consider to be astronomically large are mere infinitesimal fractions of this number. So, just how large is it? Let's try to wrap our puny human brains around the magnitude of this number with a fun little theoretical exercise. Start a timer that will count down the number of seconds from 52! to 0. We're going to see how much fun we can have before the timer counts down all the way.

Start by picking your favorite spot on the equator. You're going to walk around the world along the equator, but take a very leisurely pace of one step every billion years. The equatorial circumference of the Earth is 40,075,017 meters. Make sure to pack a deck of playing cards, so you can get in a few trillion hands of solitaire between steps. After you complete your round the world trip, remove one drop of water from the Pacific Ocean. Now do the same thing again: walk around the world at one billion years per step, removing one drop of water from the Pacific Ocean each time you circle the globe. The Pacific Ocean contains 707.6 million cubic kilometers of water. Continue until the ocean is empty. When it is, take one sheet of paper and place it flat on the ground. Now, fill the ocean back up and start the entire process all over again, adding a sheet of paper to the stack each time you've emptied the ocean.

Do this until the stack of paper reaches from the Earth to the Sun. Take a glance at the timer, you will see that the three left-most digits haven't even changed. You still have 8.063e67 more seconds to go. 1 Astronomical Unit, the distance from the Earth to the Sun, is defined as 149,597,870.691 kilometers. So, take the stack of papers down and do it all over again. One thousand times more. Unfortunately, that still won't do it. There are still more than 5.385e67 seconds remaining. You're just about a third of the way done.

To pass the remaining time, start shuffling your deck of cards. Every billion years deal yourself a 5-card poker hand. Each time you get a royal flush, buy yourself a lottery ticket. A royal flush occurs in one out of every 649,740 hands. If that ticket wins the jackpot, throw a grain of sand into the Grand Canyon. Keep going and when you've filled up the canyon with sand, remove one ounce of rock from Mt. Everest. Now empty the canyon and start all over again. When you've leveled Mt. Everest, look at the timer, you still have 5.364e67 seconds remaining. Mt. Everest weighs about 357 trillion pounds. You barely made a dent. If you were to repeat this 255 times, you would still be looking at 3.024e64 seconds. The timer would finally reach zero sometime during your 256th attempt.
That really is insane .... and a brilliant conceptual way to grasp (or rather not grasp) how many ways you can organise a pack of playing cards.

I don't doubt you for a moment (but too lazy to check the stats myself) but that's exactly why I love this stuff. The maths tell us one thing - and maths is maths and so it can't be wrong - but our human brains just can't accept it. It defies all human experience & perception. It's like magic - but it's real.
 
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Here’s one my grandson tried on me recently, but fortunately I’m wise to the huge impact of doubling numbers. You start with an enormous sheet of paper 10 mm thick. What happens if you fold it 147 times? I think I gave the answer from here to the moon, or Venus, can’t remember which, but one of them is right.
 
Jul 29, 2010
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One that stuck with me from school that puts in context the vastness of time...

If the whole of Earth history were represented by a 24hr clock, humans (in all their incarnations from the first apes that stood upright) would make their first appearance at less than two seconds to midnight.

In a similar vein...

Scientists have estimated that there are around 8,700,000 species of plants and animals in existence. However, only around 1,200,000 million species have been identified and described so far, most of which are insects.

Despite that vast number of unique species more than 99% of all species to have ever lived on Earth are now extinct.
 

justanotherfan

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Here`s a stat for you - this thread is 100% a load of bo11ocks.
 
Jul 29, 2010
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This will only blow my mind but we were watching 'The Power of the Dog' this evening (set in 1925) and it dawned on me that I was born nearer to 1925 than my birth is to the present day 😳