Apologies - this is long.
Like many people, my initial reaction to the European Super League proposals was to assume that it was simply a bargaining tool to gain more leverage and concessions in the Champions' League restructure. I now think this is entirely wrong and that a Super League is happening, with or without the consent of UEFA/FIFA/FA.
First of all, if a restructured CL with more power for the big guns was the aim, why bother? UEFA were set to announce the restructure, with pretty much everything the big clubs had asked for *this week*. It's clear that these clubs no longer believe the CL, however restructured, is the vehicle that can make them the most money and that they want nothing less than full control of the competition.
Secondly, this plan has been a long time in the making - years. Their decision to pick this moment to announce, to actually press the button rather than leave the threat hanging unspoken over UEFA's head, means they think they are ready and prepared to go it alone if they have to. Remember, this isn't really about football at all - it's about global communications, TV and new media. What they want are the global TV and streaming rights (increasingly and especially the latter). So they will have been hand in glove with a major (or emerging) international communications/TV group and quite possibly major commercial partners as well.
Thirdly, they aren't really interested in negotiating with UEFA/FIFA/the domestic leagues - hence the August start date. They believe that their brand is strong enough to stand on its own. Ideally, of course, they would want to continue to participate in the domestic leagues (and they will no doubt have legal opinions that say they have at least a fighting chance of winning a legal battle to stop them being expelled and excluded), but ultimately they think their model works (i.e. delivers the most profit) if they are booted out domestically. My hunch is that they will have an additional structure and probably an additional tranche of clubs ready and willing to make up the difference in fixtures - possibly a 'Global group' from the Far East/MLS/A league etc plus a couple of other 'punchers' from UEFA - RB Leipzig, maybe PSG, Celtic & Rangers???
Historically, I'm reminded of a number of things, but especially the Packer revolution in cricket, and of the course the creation of the Prem. Both of those were driven by broadcast, rather than sporting needs - the Prem was created in order to save BSkyB which was in *serious* financial trouble; Packer was all about Channel 9 displacing ABC in Australia. In both cases, the governing bodies lost - in court, in the case of Packer; in negotiation, in the case of the Prem. Whilst I would never underestimate the craven nature of football's governing bodies in the face of its biggest clubs, I think in this instance UEFA/FIFA may well be determined to stand their ground. It will be grimly fascinating to see how this plays out.