Creativity - where will the goals come from?

[GreenEden]

Callum Wright has been poor but he's been played repeatedly as a winger he was signed as a no10 and then dipped out as a result of formation changes to get best out of him you have to play him as a 10 which I don't think he has been given the chance to show since promotion

 

[Steve Evans]

i would never leave callum wright out,he is a positive ,forward thinking player hence not being chosen by mister demotivator.

 

[memory man]

Whether you're for or against the head coach, I think the vast majority of Argyle fans would acknowledge that our creativity has dropped off a cliff since the turn of the year. The only factor many of us will disagree on is the cause, ie. is it Foster, the loss of Azaz/Cundle, more difficult fixtures or all of the above?

Here's a few stats that look at the creativity in our squad...

Key Passes (passes that lead directly to a shot)

Azaz 3.21 key passes per 90mins
Cundle 1.82
Randell 1.57
Whittaker 1.52
Sousa 1.43
Miller 1.39
Mumba 1.37
Forshaw 1.28
Bundu 1.23
T Wright! 1.00

1. Azaz and Cundle were our most creative players, with Azaz accounting for a third of all key passes we make per 90mins.
2. Randell is now our most creative force from central midfield and also carries a goal threat of his own, so he needs to play as much as possible.
3. Joe Edwards can do a job defensively but only makes 0.37 key passes per 90. Compare that with Sousa, Miller and Mumba's numbers and you can see why Edwards has been struggling to get in the side since two of our main creative players left.

Shot-Creating Actions (offensive actions directly leading to a shot, such as passes, take-ons and drawing fouls)

Azaz 6.22 per 90
Whittaker 3.65
Cundle 3.43
Mumba 3.09
Randell 3.06
C Wright 2.99
Gillesphey 2.92
Forshaw 2.77
Sorinola 2.63
Bundu 2.60

1. I won't labour the point about Azaz - I'm not hand-picking these stats to make him look better than he was; he was just very, very good and nobody in our squad can come close to doing what he did, not even Morgan.
2. Mumba and Randell come out of another attacking stat looking good. They both need to play (suspensions notwithstanding).
3. Outside of the top three here there isn't much between the next dozen or so players, but C Wright could be worth another look in a substitute role if we need a goal.

Progressive Carries (dribbles that move the ball at least 10 yards towards the opposition area, or dribbles that end in the area)

Miller 4.72 per 90
Sousa 3.81
Bundu 3.42
Whittaker 3.31
Azaz 3.06
Devine 2.90
Mumba 2.86
KKH 2.84
C Wright 2.09
Hardie 2.02

1. You would probably expect wingbacks to dominate this metric, but look at Miller and Sousa's compared with KKH. Not to mention Edwards, who is way back on 0.79 progressive carries per 90. Given Miller and Sousa's solid numbers in both stats so far, it's a real shame they're both left-sided players.
2. Bundu featuring so high here surprised me as I didn't think this was a major part of his game.
3. Interesting that C Wright features again.

Carries into Penalty Box (dribbles that start outside the area and end inside)

Whittaker 1.8 per 90
Hardie 1.47
Mumba 1.15
C Wright 1.04
Azaz 1.02
Bundu 0.96
Miller 0.78
Sousa 0.48
Waine 0.48
KKH 0.47

1. You would expect to see forwards dominate this metric, but I was surprised to see C Wright edge Azaz. There's some decent evidence suggesting he should be given another go.

Touches in Attacking Third

Miller 21.2
Azaz 20.4
Whittaker 20.4
Bundu 20.3
Sousa 17.1
C Wright 16.6
Mumba 14.9
Cundle 14.7
KKH 14.3
Hardie 13.1

1. This stat in itself doesn't say a lot because it doesn't account for what the player does with the touch, but it's interesting to see that Miller has had more touches in the attacking third (per 90) than any other player.
2. I was surprised to see C Wright higher up in this one than Mumba. Even accounting for the fact that Mumba has featured at wingback at times, you would still expect him to have had more touches higher up the pitch per 90 than Wright.

So to try answer the question in the thread title: where will the goals come from? My conclusions are as follows:

1. They certainly aren't coming from any of the new signings. Neither Devine nor Gyabi have come anywhere close to replicating what Azaz and Cundle did for us, and it's probably not a fair comparison anyway given their age and limited experience. Were we really expecting them to do what Azaz and Cundle did? Highly unlikely.
2. Miller is key for us and if his final ball was better he would be an assist magnet. Hopefully they've had him working on that this week.
3. Can Sousa play on the right?
4. Whichever two IF picks to play in midfield, Randell needs to be one of them.
5. Mumba needs to play RWB over Edwards unless we're expecting to be under the cosh (assuming Sousa doesn't have a right foot).
6. Callum Wright should probably be given another go, at least as a late sub. His lack of strength and occasional poor concentration let him down at Championship level, but his appearance in several of the metrics I've looked at here suggest he's worth a look.
7. You can certainly see why we've tried to tighten up and try to get the points we need to stay up that way. Assuming the management team knew Devine and Gyabi were a bit of a punt (based on their previous stats), they must have been half prepared for the possibility that the goals would dry up without Azaz and Cundle.

Excellent research but I'm a bit old in the tooth for some of what I see as an over reliance on stats. My own eyes and memory do confirm some of this. If you pick out Miller's numbers then, to me, they confirm how he flatters to deceive. Most carries, most touches in the attacking third yet he is not in the list of shot creating actions. I do wonder why there seems to be no correlation in C Wright's key-passes and shot creating actions. Randell not appearing in the progressive carries is a worry. I would have hoped that would be a strength of his.

 

[greenpilled]

i would never leave callum wright out,he is a positive ,forward thinking player hence not being chosen by mister demotivator.

He started v Sutton, Huddersfield and Leeds twice - four of Foster’s first six games - and he was terrible.

Each time, the game turned in Argyle’s favour almost the minute he went off.

If you exclude extra time v Leeds (when we ran out of gas and they brought on the big guns) the combined score in those games was 2-4 to the opposition with Wright on the pitch and 4-0 to Argyle once he’d gone off.

I don’t think we could do any worse giving him another go (i’d possibly be tempted to try Caleb Roberts instead) but don’t make up stuff about him not having already had chances.

 

[loyal1970]

The goals will come if Foster plays attacking football.

 

[memory man]

i would never leave callum wright out,he is a positive ,forward thinking player hence not being chosen by mister demotivator.

But who would you choose out of Callum Wright and Tyler Harvey if both were available for one slot in the team?

 

[Railway sleeper]

Whether you're for or against the head coach, I think the vast majority of Argyle fans would acknowledge that our creativity has dropped off a cliff since the turn of the year. The only factor many of us will disagree on is the cause, ie. is it Foster, the loss of Azaz/Cundle, more difficult fixtures or all of the above?

Here's a few stats that look at the creativity in our squad...

Key Passes (passes that lead directly to a shot)

Azaz 3.21 key passes per 90mins
Cundle 1.82
Randell 1.57
Whittaker 1.52
Sousa 1.43
Miller 1.39
Mumba 1.37
Forshaw 1.28
Bundu 1.23
T Wright! 1.00

1. Azaz and Cundle were our most creative players, with Azaz accounting for a third of all key passes we make per 90mins.
2. Randell is now our most creative force from central midfield and also carries a goal threat of his own, so he needs to play as much as possible.
3. Joe Edwards can do a job defensively but only makes 0.37 key passes per 90. Compare that with Sousa, Miller and Mumba's numbers and you can see why Edwards has been struggling to get in the side since two of our main creative players left.

Shot-Creating Actions (offensive actions directly leading to a shot, such as passes, take-ons and drawing fouls)

Azaz 6.22 per 90
Whittaker 3.65
Cundle 3.43
Mumba 3.09
Randell 3.06
C Wright 2.99
Gillesphey 2.92
Forshaw 2.77
Sorinola 2.63
Bundu 2.60

1. I won't labour the point about Azaz - I'm not hand-picking these stats to make him look better than he was; he was just very, very good and nobody in our squad can come close to doing what he did, not even Morgan.
2. Mumba and Randell come out of another attacking stat looking good. They both need to play (suspensions notwithstanding).
3. Outside of the top three here there isn't much between the next dozen or so players, but C Wright could be worth another look in a substitute role if we need a goal.

Progressive Carries (dribbles that move the ball at least 10 yards towards the opposition area, or dribbles that end in the area)

Miller 4.72 per 90
Sousa 3.81
Bundu 3.42
Whittaker 3.31
Azaz 3.06
Devine 2.90
Mumba 2.86
KKH 2.84
C Wright 2.09
Hardie 2.02

1. You would probably expect wingbacks to dominate this metric, but look at Miller and Sousa's compared with KKH. Not to mention Edwards, who is way back on 0.79 progressive carries per 90. Given Miller and Sousa's solid numbers in both stats so far, it's a real shame they're both left-sided players.
2. Bundu featuring so high here surprised me as I didn't think this was a major part of his game.
3. Interesting that C Wright features again.

Carries into Penalty Box (dribbles that start outside the area and end inside)

Whittaker 1.8 per 90
Hardie 1.47
Mumba 1.15
C Wright 1.04
Azaz 1.02
Bundu 0.96
Miller 0.78
Sousa 0.48
Waine 0.48
KKH 0.47

1. You would expect to see forwards dominate this metric, but I was surprised to see C Wright edge Azaz. There's some decent evidence suggesting he should be given another go.

Touches in Attacking Third

Miller 21.2
Azaz 20.4
Whittaker 20.4
Bundu 20.3
Sousa 17.1
C Wright 16.6
Mumba 14.9
Cundle 14.7
KKH 14.3
Hardie 13.1

1. This stat in itself doesn't say a lot because it doesn't account for what the player does with the touch, but it's interesting to see that Miller has had more touches in the attacking third (per 90) than any other player.
2. I was surprised to see C Wright higher up in this one than Mumba. Even accounting for the fact that Mumba has featured at wingback at times, you would still expect him to have had more touches higher up the pitch per 90 than Wright.

So to try answer the question in the thread title: where will the goals come from? My conclusions are as follows:

1. They certainly aren't coming from any of the new signings. Neither Devine nor Gyabi have come anywhere close to replicating what Azaz and Cundle did for us, and it's probably not a fair comparison anyway given their age and limited experience. Were we really expecting them to do what Azaz and Cundle did? Highly unlikely.
2. Miller is key for us and if his final ball was better he would be an assist magnet. Hopefully they've had him working on that this week.
3. Can Sousa play on the right?
4. Whichever two IF picks to play in midfield, Randell needs to be one of them.
5. Mumba needs to play RWB over Edwards unless we're expecting to be under the cosh (assuming Sousa doesn't have a right foot).
6. Callum Wright should probably be given another go, at least as a late sub. His lack of strength and occasional poor concentration let him down at Championship level, but his appearance in several of the metrics I've looked at here suggest he's worth a look.
7. You can certainly see why we've tried to tighten up and try to get the points we need to stay up that way. Assuming the management team knew Devine and Gyabi were a bit of a punt (based on their previous stats), they must have been half prepared for the possibility that the goals would dry up without Azaz and Cundle.

A brilliant piece of research.very interesting.

Personally, I'd like us to switch to 4-2-4 at home, if were not going to play a possesion based game.

Would like us to play 2 strikers and 2 wingers to 'jump start' us - the 'creative' engine seems to have stalled ( although I realise that this is not necessarily supported by your research):

Whittaker- hardie - bunda- issaka

Freddie is 18 in july, so not quite sure why hes not getting more game time, although he does have very good competition in mikel Miller.

 

[Steve Evans]

But who would you choose out of Callum Wright and Tyler Harvey if both were available for one slot in the team?

tyler harvey plays for truro city.

 

[Steve Evans]

He started v Sutton, Huddersfield and Leeds twice - four of Foster’s first six games - and he was terrible.

Each time, the game turned in Argyle’s favour almost the minute he went off.

If you exclude extra time v Leeds (when we ran out of gas and they brought on the big guns) the combined score in those games was 2-4 to the opposition with Wright on the pitch and 4-0 to Argyle once he’d gone off.

I don’t think we could do any worse giving him another go (i’d possibly be tempted to try Caleb Roberts instead) but don’t make up stuff about him not having already had chances.

i find that a very fair post,i don't think he has played enough and i agree with you about caleb,he is a star in the making.

 

[mutley marvel]

Take Hart - Morph & Chas knew all about being creative
Who are our Morph & Chas