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Tory blue wall crumbling?

Even as a life long Liberal I find Ed Davey’s suggestion that the blue wall is crumbling to be a tad optimistic. Highly chuffed at the result, but I think ‘chuffed’ might be the key word here, as I’m sure HS2 had a part to play.

Where I think Tories may have cause for concern is believing they can hang on to previous Labour voters post Brexit, whilst still appealing to their traditional base. And is this result the first indication that voters are beginning to see the emperor’s clothes? Hope so.
 
Jul 15, 2006
3,784
9
Kenton, Devon
[Cut and deleted this from another thread]

I think, given the result in Chesham and Amersham, I have to [finally] admit that Labour is in a real pickle, and I can't see a way out from where they are. Last night's by-election result was a stunning victory for the Lib Dems and I think the percentage swing to them is more than just a mid-term protest vote. I'd go as far to say that this was as an important a result, and a signal of a change of mood in the South, as Hartlepool was a couple of weeks ago for the North: there had been talk for a little while now - since the last election - about the brittle "blue wall" in the South as the Tories made inroads into the red wall. Even if last night was partly a protest (and a fair amount of tactical voting too), even a modest swing of a couple of % in some of the seats the Lib Dems are targetting in 2024 will easily net them 20-30 more MPs.

So I'm wondering whether UK politics has now finally moved on from the working class left and the office-class middle and right? Many people don't identify with "working class" or "middle class" any more, and I think the Tory Party has recognised this and has reinvented themselves (again) so capture voters from the northern Labour heartlands. But, by the same token, they're as guilty for taking safe southern seats and voters for granted much in the same way as Labour has, and the Lib Dems are sensing they can take advantage of that. I DO think that Starmer could see this too and has tried to move Labour in the same direction as the Lib Dems, but is being held back by the more extreme left of the party.

I think, given the current political climate in the UK, Labour will have to start seriously thinking about forming some kind of "understanding" with the Lib Dems if they ever want to remove the Tories from Government. Because that's about the only card they've got to play right now.
 
Quinny":3c7onwia said:
[Cut and deleted this from another thread]

I think, given the result in Chesham and Amersham, I have to [finally] admit that Labour is in a real pickle, and I can't see a way out from where they are. Last night's by-election result was a stunning victory for the Lib Dems and I think the percentage swing to them is more than just a mid-term protest vote. I'd go as far to say that this was as an important a result, and a signal of a change of mood in the South, as Hartlepool was a couple of weeks ago for the North: there had been talk for a little while now - since the last election - about the brittle "blue wall" in the South as the Tories made inroads into the red wall. Even if last night was partly a protest (and a fair amount of tactical voting too), even a modest swing of a couple of % in some of the seats the Lib Dems are targetting in 2024 will easily net them 20-30 more MPs.

So I'm wondering whether UK politics has now finally moved on from the working class left and the office-class middle and right? Many people don't identify with "working class" or "middle class" any more, and I think the Tory Party has recognised this and has reinvented themselves (again) so capture voters from the northern Labour heartlands. But, by the same token, they're as guilty for taking safe southern seats and voters for granted much in the same way as Labour has, and the Lib Dems are sensing they can take advantage of that. I DO think that Starmer could see this too and has tried to move Labour in the same direction as the Lib Dems, but is being held back by the more extreme left of the party.

I think, given the current political climate in the UK, Labour will have to start seriously thinking about forming some kind of "understanding" with the Lib Dems if they ever want to remove the Tories from Government. Because that's about the only card they've got to play right now.

Agree with every word of that Quinny, particularly the point about class and aspiration. And yes, surely a broad left understanding makes absolute sense for both parties in the next election.
 
Nov 15, 2011
1,255
16
Agreed it's staring Labour in the face now , under the FPTP system and with the Tories so good at killing off any other competition on the right, they have to assemble a progressive alliance with Greens / Liberals. If the hard left don't like it they can lump it.

I'm getting increasingly frustrated with Starmer, he's clearly a decent bloke with good values but he appears to lack political instinct and in some ways courage of his convictions. He should forget the red wall and just concentrate on doing what's right. eg Brexit is done and there's no going back but don't pretend the insanity of it and the damage it's doing every day isn't happening. He has to remember more people voted for 2nd referendum parties than Tory at the last election that's got to be his target voters.

And even if an alliance is a step too far, they have to start talking about which seats each of the Greens / Libs / Labour will target at the next election.
 

signalspast

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Aug 17, 2005
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mervyn":32zb7iyf said:
Even as a life long Liberal I find Ed Davey’s suggestion that the blue wall is crumbling to be a tad optimistic. Highly chuffed at the result, but I think ‘chuffed’ might be the key word here, as I’m sure HS2 had a part to play.

Where I think Tories may have cause for concern is believing they can hang on to previous Labour voters post Brexit, whilst still appealing to their traditional base. And is this result the first indication that voters are beginning to see the emperor’s clothes? Hope so.

I was talking to my cousin a couple of weeks ago on wattsapp about this election as she lives in Amersham. She is true blue having been bought up in Chalfont St Peter etc etc. Knowing I have voted lib most of my life, she was saying that she wouldn't be surprised if the libs won the by election because there is a lot of anger there over hs2 and the relaxation of planning permissions on green field sites. She herself wasn't going to vote as a protest.
The turnout was over twenty per cent down on the general election. I expect it to go back to tory at the general election
 
Nov 15, 2011
1,255
16
signalspast":12ah9fia said:
mervyn":12ah9fia said:
Even as a life long Liberal I find Ed Davey’s suggestion that the blue wall is crumbling to be a tad optimistic. Highly chuffed at the result, but I think ‘chuffed’ might be the key word here, as I’m sure HS2 had a part to play.

Where I think Tories may have cause for concern is believing they can hang on to previous Labour voters post Brexit, whilst still appealing to their traditional base. And is this result the first indication that voters are beginning to see the emperor’s clothes? Hope so.

I was talking to my cousin a couple of weeks ago on wattsapp about this election as she lives in Amersham. She is true blue having been bought up in Chalfont St Peter etc etc. Knowing I have voted lib most of my life, she was saying that she wouldn't be surprised if the libs won the by election because there is a lot of anger there over hs2 and the relaxation of planning permissions on green field sites. She herself wasn't going to vote as a protest.
The turnout was over twenty per cent down on the general election. I expect it to go back to tory at the general election

That may happen, although I think there's a lot going on here.

Apparently Labour didn't campaign here and waved the LibDem through, they expect them to do likewise in Batley. So maybe that alliance we were referring to is already happening.

The other difference is I think that the current Tory Party isn't traditionally Conservative in having the values that many wealthy areas of the South East have. Ultra nationalism to the point of self harm and damaging businesses, clamping down on the right to protest, serial lying and ignoring the rule of law are not what traditional Conservatives believe in as Dominic Grieve put eloquently this morning.

Then at the next election if the progressive parties do form some sort of alliance the Tory attack line will be vote libdem and get Starmer as PM. Whilst this may put off some Conservatives, I don't think it will carry the same weight as when Corbyn was the alternative.
 
Sep 2, 2008
1,730
6
signalspast":29umvjn7 said:
mervyn":29umvjn7 said:
Even as a life long Liberal I find Ed Davey’s suggestion that the blue wall is crumbling to be a tad optimistic. Highly chuffed at the result, but I think ‘chuffed’ might be the key word here, as I’m sure HS2 had a part to play.

Where I think Tories may have cause for concern is believing they can hang on to previous Labour voters post Brexit, whilst still appealing to their traditional base. And is this result the first indication that voters are beginning to see the emperor’s clothes? Hope so.

I was talking to my cousin a couple of weeks ago on wattsapp about this election as she lives in Amersham. She is true blue having been bought up in Chalfont St Peter etc etc. Knowing I have voted lib most of my life, she was saying that she wouldn't be surprised if the libs won the by election because there is a lot of anger there over hs2 and the relaxation of planning permissions on green field sites. She herself wasn't going to vote as a protest.
The turnout was over twenty per cent down on the general election
. I expect it to go back to tory at the general election

This is the real truth imo and if anyone sees anything different then they really are clutching at straws and walking around with their head in the clouds as far as I'm concerned.

I think you're also correct in saying that it will go back to Tory in the next GE. I'd also go so far to say that the Lib Dems will actually still attract more votes than Labour.

Labour really is floundering and until they really open their eyes, develop a real appreciation of what people want and get rid of the mob of angry blithering idiots they have as MP's (Rayner, Abbott, Butler - to name a few), then they are going to remain scrabbling around the bottom of the pond with the other bottom feeders for a very long time.

Tory wall crumbling?? Not at all.
 

Pogleswoody

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About time that politicians realised that hitting a blue wall with an orange hammer on telly is not a good way to go in getting respect for your party!

Give us policies and somebody to trust/believe in. This is people's lives and future, not a third rate reality show where Ed is King of the Bungle because Boris the Bereft was voted off the show last week! :facepalm:
 
Nov 15, 2011
1,255
16
Pogleswoody":1pjabyj5 said:
About time that politicians realised that hitting a blue wall with an orange hammer on telly is not a good way to go in getting respect for your party!

Give us policies and somebody to trust/believe in. This is people's lives and future, not a third rate reality show where Ed is King of the Bungle because Boris the Bereft was voted off the show last week! :facepalm:

To Be Fair Pogles it was a micky take of Bozo , they were all laughing when he did it whereas the Brexit loons thought the bulldozer stunt was him being the tough guy getting Brexit done - which he still hasn't done!
 
Jul 15, 2006
3,784
9
Kenton, Devon
signalspast":3q73mltg said:
I was talking to my cousin a couple of weeks ago on wattsapp about this election as she lives in Amersham. She is true blue having been bought up in Chalfont St Peter etc etc. Knowing I have voted lib most of my life, she was saying that she wouldn't be surprised if the libs won the by election because there is a lot of anger there over hs2 and the relaxation of planning permissions on green field sites. She herself wasn't going to vote as a protest.
The turnout was over twenty per cent down on the general election. I expect it to go back to tory at the general election

Of course turn-out was lower than a GE: by-elections usually are. And, normally, there is a sense of these mid-term elections being a protest vote and, as you rightly say, normally the seat returns to the original party. But there's more than that happening here: when turnout is low, then you'll see reduced returns for all the candidates standing, but here the Lib Dems went from 14,627 in 2019 up to 21,517 last night. Tory voters (and Labour ones too, I should think, given that they collapsed to just 600-odd votes and lost their deposit) put their cross against the Lib Dem candidate. From what I've read so far today, a lot of people cleverer than me aren't dismissing last night's result as just being a protest vote.

And you're right - the Lib Dems did campaign on public disillusion on issues like HS2 and the relaxation of planning rules. And you know what? Themes like these will be the dominant concerns in elections in the near future. The electorate aren't that interested so much about social policies anymore because the main parties have nick the best ideas from each other and things don't fundamentally change for anyone irrespective of who is in power. But the environment, climate change, bringing up our children in a better world: those will be the main head-turners for the electorate.
 
HS2, low turnout, mid-term, suspicion of tactical voting too - Labour had better hope so given their return.

Don't think the Tories will be fretting too much as the polling gap still tends to be widening. I suggest we need a united centre left party and let the Momentum types do what they want to as a minority protest party. The loss of the far left to Labour would be more than offset by LibDem and Green additions.
 

Pogleswoody

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themightykeithfear":2fd2c1x1 said:
Pogleswoody":2fd2c1x1 said:
About time that politicians realised that hitting a blue wall with an orange hammer on telly is not a good way to go in getting respect for your party!

Give us policies and somebody to trust/believe in. This is people's lives and future, not a third rate reality show where Ed is King of the Bungle because Boris the Bereft was voted off the show last week! :facepalm:

To Be Fair Pogles it was a micky take of Bozo , they were all laughing when he did it whereas the Brexit loons thought the bulldozer stunt was him being the tough guy getting Brexit done - which he still hasn't done!

Yeah I get that mighty but I just think they overplay it. They are thinking: where is the joke, the image? I'm thinking: show us that you believe what you are saying/doing. Manifestos and Instagram are not good bedfellows.
 
Jan 20, 2004
685
2
Frank_Butcher":1iyhp8c2 said:
HS2, low turnout, mid-term, suspicion of tactical voting too - Labour had better hope so given their return.

Don't think the Tories will be fretting too much as the polling gap still tends to be widening. I suggest we need a united centre left party and let the Momentum types do what they want to as a minority protest party. The loss of the far left to Labour would be more than offset by LibDem and Green additions.

Totally agree Frank, if Keir Starmer, Ed Davey and Caroline Lucas could put their heads together to form a pact or coalition, that distances itself from Labour's Corbyn image, I don't think centrist leaning Tory voters would be too perturbed at the prospect of Starmer as PM.

Combining some progressive policies such as proportional representation, investment in high tech green technology, and education, health and social care, whilst now accepting we are out of Europe, grasp the fact that, post referendum the country was split into three, so campaigning on a ticket of some sort of customary alignment would be acceptable to most and a step towards solving so many issues, especially the Northern Ireland border problem and possibly saving the UK.
 
Dec 27, 2004
665
8
Bidford on Avon
Only personal granted, but I live in the Stratford ward.

You couldn't get a bluer seat.

Things like HS2 - a costly, unneeded vanity project based on inaccurate figures which would be money better spent on other things.

The planning changes are a massive bone of contention though- swathes of greenbelt land being consumed rather than brownfield - well that would require some effort.

Literally all of the properties are top end of the market 4 /5 bedroom houses, doing nothing to ease the housing shortage.

That anger is building now, several developments previously blocked have been pushed through.

With the proposed new rules there'd be carte blanche to just concrete everything over.

A land buyer friend even discussed with the County Councillor why the long term plan was so inadequate and offered so little protection to the area as it is already overrun. The CC mumbled some waffle and scarpered.

In another few years the vaccine bounce will be gone and he will be judged on actual delivery.

The lib dems did govern here before and could do so quite easily in future
 
I’ve just heard yet another campaigner during the by-election refer to the the Boris effect on their vote, mentioning how often they heard long standing Tories on the doorstep say they will never vote for the party again whilst Johnson is at the helm. Reason to suppose that whilst HS2 and nimbyism played it’s part, there maybe something more deep seated here. Accounts for the near panic amongst the grey suits.
 
Dec 27, 2004
665
8
Bidford on Avon
Media reporting Sunak pushing for a year suspension for triple-lock on pensions as pensioners have "suffered less" than everyone else?

Really - many forced to isolate for long periods of time with little support, care homes *ring of steel - NOT) ravaged.

I suspect it has been leaked deliberately to gauge public reaction first.

One of the worst pensions in Europe, but apparently they've never had it so good?

I'd be pretty miffed if I was a pensioner - continually told you're to blame for all the world's ills and expected to stump up for everything.

This is just the sort of policy that could have major implications for the Conservatives, much like TMs stealth tax allowed Corbyn to claim a respectable defeat and led indirectly to Boris's thumping win.

Boris or Corbyn - what a choice.

Fine margins - a raid on pensioners is electoral suicide for the Conservatives in my opinion
 
Pilgrim_Joe":2feg3em3 said:
Media reporting Sunak pushing for a year suspension for triple-lock on pensions as pensioners have "suffered less" than everyone else?

Really - many forced to isolate for long periods of time with little support, care homes *ring of steel - NOT) ravaged.

I suspect it has been leaked deliberately to gauge public reaction first.

One of the worst pensions in Europe, but apparently they've never had it so good?

I'd be pretty miffed if I was a pensioner - continually told you're to blame for all the world's ills and expected to stump up for everything.

This is just the sort of policy that could have major implications for the Conservatives, much like TMs stealth tax allowed Corbyn to claim a respectable defeat and led indirectly to Boris's thumping win.

Boris or Corbyn - what a choice.

Fine margins - a raid on pensioners is electoral suicide for the Conservatives in my opinion

It’ll never happen PJ. 85% of pensioners regularly vote, compared to below 60% of the rest. I agree it would be electoral suicide.
 
Dec 27, 2004
665
8
Bidford on Avon
mervyn":4qy9xgos said:
Pilgrim_Joe":4qy9xgos said:
Media reporting Sunak pushing for a year suspension for triple-lock on pensions as pensioners have "suffered less" than everyone else?

Really - many forced to isolate for long periods of time with little support, care homes *ring of steel - NOT) ravaged.

I suspect it has been leaked deliberately to gauge public reaction first.

One of the worst pensions in Europe, but apparently they've never had it so good?

I'd be pretty miffed if I was a pensioner - continually told you're to blame for all the world's ills and expected to stump up for everything.

This is just the sort of policy that could have major implications for the Conservatives, much like TMs stealth tax allowed Corbyn to claim a respectable defeat and led indirectly to Boris's thumping win.

Boris or Corbyn - what a choice.

Fine margins - a raid on pensioners is electoral suicide for the Conservatives in my opinion

It’ll never happen PJ. 85% of pensioners regularly vote, compared to below 60% of the rest. I agree it would be electoral suicide.

Reports again testing the water if a raid on pensioners to pay for the pandemic is acceptable to the general population

So they pay into the system all their life, get a paltry pension and are told "you've never had it so good"

Why have we normalised persecuting pensioners and the disabled (benefit spongers) in this country?

Truly shameful
 
Nov 15, 2011
1,255
16
I just can't work out how they're going to square the circle on the triple lock and every other promise. The spending has to come to an end and the debt addressed.

There are only 3 choices, cut spending hugely and forget levelling up, and back to austerity which they say is a no no, raise taxes which would alienate the tory base whether it's businesses or individuals, or borrow even more.

Sunak knows that inflation is on the horizon - oil and property price rises plus food next month when the Brexit costs on imports kick in. This will be exacerbated due to the huge shortage of HGV drivers as foreign drivers don't want to come here to do the paperwork and suppliers have to pay over the odds. Interest rate rises inevitably follow, so that means billions more needed to service the debt, the borrowing can't go on.

Then you have the promise to end the care crisis, which would cost tens of billions to restrict contributions to £50k, billions required by the NHS to sort out the backlog and Johnson already has MPs from South and North demanding not to be ignored / levelling up.

As in Johnson's entire life to date eventually his lies and promises he never had any intention of keeping will catch up with him, but if he's true to form he'll be legging it out the back door before he has to take any responsibility for his actions.
 
There is something of an unspoken truth when it comes to pensioners. These days a much higher percentage of people are motivated to do the right thing and save for their retirement, equally there are better employer provisions on employers with obligations that didn't use to exist. Now that doesn't mean that those people ignore the state pension when planning for retirement of course, it's just not the case that every pensioner is sat in a damp room, with carpets from the 1970s, sipping a cup of tea as every newspaper will show you. However, there are people who have to live like that and they must be protected - and actually, disproportionately helped.

But, the triple lock is costly. Pensioners have in general enjoyed above average inflation rises several times over the last 11 years. Some reports suggest wage growth currently indicates an 8%+ rise next year in the state pension.

We have to pay for what has happened so as one measure, I would be in favour of a one year pause, but means tested to ensure that those in difficulty are not unduly penalised.