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I think Labour has got it wrong

Frank Butcher

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Oct 9, 2003
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Your area of expertise the NHS :) PFI? Taxation? You mentioned that you had co authored papers in this area and although it's always interesting to know what's wrong with an organisation, that's the easy bit, the more interesting read, for me at least, are the potential solutions. Private message me if you prefer, I am genuinely interested

PM sent OG 👍.
 
Isn’t it luverly to have your opinion changed by new facts. A year ago I posited on here that a Tory re-election in 2024 was inevitable. Teflon Johnson remained untouchable, and despite my high regard for Starmer he was clearly making little headway in terms of public awareness. My only hope at that point was that Johnson’s inevitable continuing gaffs, combined with an equally inevitable downturn in the economy post Brexit would prove his undoing.

And lo it has come to pass! Today’s poll by 38 degrees quoted in the independent suggests that an election today would produce labour 309 and Tory 255 seats. Labour is looking more and more like a government in waiting, particularly following the recent shadow front bench re-shuffle. However I think a more likely outcome in 2024 after Johnson has been replaced and Sumak has produced a giveaway budget is a roughly equal number of seats between the two parties. However, as all bar Ulster Unionists will be anti-Tory, an opposition coalition is a more probable outcome imo. Happier days perhaps?
 

Pogleswoody

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Isn’t it luverly to have your opinion changed by new facts. A year ago I posited on here that a Tory re-election in 2024 was inevitable. Teflon Johnson remained untouchable, and despite my high regard for Starmer he was clearly making little headway in terms of public awareness. My only hope at that point was that Johnson’s inevitable continuing gaffs, combined with an equally inevitable downturn in the economy post Brexit would prove his undoing.

And lo it has come to pass! Today’s poll by 38 degrees quoted in the independent suggests that an election today would produce labour 309 and Tory 255 seats. Labour is looking more and more like a government in waiting, particularly following the recent shadow front bench re-shuffle. However I think a more likely outcome in 2024 after Johnson has been replaced and Sumak has produced a giveaway budget is a roughly equal number of seats between the two parties. However, as all bar Ulster Unionists will be anti-Tory, an opposition coalition is a more probable outcome imo. Happier days perhaps?
Shouldn't this be on Labour has got it right? or
The Tories have got it wrong thread? :unsure:
 
Nov 15, 2011
2,293
434

From the Evening Standard :​

"Johnson on the rocks as poll suggests Red Wall voters put faith in Starmer

Sir Keir Starmer has won voters’ hearts back in the Red Wall, a new poll suggests, while a majority doubt Boris Johnson will be Prime Minister this time next year.

The Deltapoll survey of the 57 constituencies the Tories gained in the 2019 General Election, most of which could be considered part of the Red Wall, found that 38% of voters agreed Sir Keir would make the best PM, while 33% backed Mr Johnson. The poll, for the Mail on Sunday (MoS), also put Labour in the lead when it came to the voting intention in those seats (49% vs 33%). The newspaper said if the results were repeated in a General Election it could cost the Conservatives more than 100 seats."

Over 2/3 also thought Johnson was a liar, the other 1/3 presumably haven't been paying attention. It's practically impossible to change that opinion when people no longer believe you, and Johnson cannot change his character that he has had for his entire life.

Starmer must be praying Johnson hangs around as long as possible.
 

Frank Butcher

Foodbank Donor
Oct 9, 2003
3,761
153
Gairloch

From the Evening Standard :​

"Johnson on the rocks as poll suggests Red Wall voters put faith in Starmer

Sir Keir Starmer has won voters’ hearts back in the Red Wall, a new poll suggests, while a majority doubt Boris Johnson will be Prime Minister this time next year.

The Deltapoll survey of the 57 constituencies the Tories gained in the 2019 General Election, most of which could be considered part of the Red Wall, found that 38% of voters agreed Sir Keir would make the best PM, while 33% backed Mr Johnson. The poll, for the Mail on Sunday (MoS), also put Labour in the lead when it came to the voting intention in those seats (49% vs 33%). The newspaper said if the results were repeated in a General Election it could cost the Conservatives more than 100 seats."

Over 2/3 also thought Johnson was a liar, the other 1/3 presumably haven't been paying attention. It's practically impossible to change that opinion when people no longer believe you, and Johnson cannot change his character that he has had for his entire life.

Starmer must be praying Johnson hangs around as long as possible.

Anthony Wells is an excellent commentator/ pollster (now with YouGov). Here’s his view:
Stop Obsessing About The Red Wall
 
Nov 15, 2011
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434
The article is from San Francisco based substack, for The Sun's yougov Director who previously worked for IDS, Michael Howard and William Hague.

But whatever it's not Labour obsessing about the red wall, it's him and the Daily Mail.