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Coronavirus (merged threads)

Frank Butcher

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Oct 9, 2003
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Reported today that early suggestions are Omicron is twice as infectious given the level of reinfection in South Africa’s Gauteng province. But there are so many unknowns - low vaccination rate, younger population etc. and too early to understand severity of illness. We shall see in a week or two I guess.

Had my booster up here in bonny Scotland yesterday. Rough as rats today to be honest. Could be the flu jab though taken at the same time.

Regardless, it’s worth it …
 
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Dec 27, 2004
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Bidford on Avon
Cummings says that allegedly journos were there too which is why the press aren't running with it.

I know you love a bit of Twitter GG 👍

Screenshot_20211207-064136_Opera.jpg
So cases - without Omicron have been climbing steadily for weeks now at ~50k as have deaths, now about ~150 as have hospitalisations, but any measures will be due to the "milder" Omicron.

Damn than pesky virus, we'd nearly beaten it ......... NOT

Talk about none so blind as those that would not see 🤦‍♂️😔

Boris has normalised rank incompetence
 
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Frank Butcher

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Oct 9, 2003
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Thought I’d fact check this on Worldometer and gov.uk as you do have a propensity to - shall we say - over-egg things.

- 7 day average for cases has been fluctuating between 25k and 48k since rules were relaxed In June - Delta the dominant strain. We are currently at a high point in that range and about to see if Omicron has an impact.

- Admissions - up to 30th Nov (latest available figures), admissions were down around 1% week on week and had been steadily falling since late October.

- 7 day average for deaths has been steadily decreasing since early November. We have seen a levelling out of the curve in the last few days, but as it stands deaths are marginally down in the last 7 days.

And what’s been discovered about Omicron is included in those stats.

So, that last tirade just isn’t true Joe, is it?

Why do people do this? I don’t get it.
 

Andy S

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There's been some chatter over the last 24/48 hours that this omnicron variant, although apparently more transmissible, is about as severe as a common cold, according to one South African doctor. This would be good if true, but - and I only found this out yesterday - the average age of a person in South Africa is only 28, compared with 38.5 for the US, 40.6 for the UK, or 48.6 for Japan (the oldest average age of any nation, bar Monaco). We know that age plays an important factor in determining the severity of how ill someone gets with Covid, so we'll wait and see as to how bad - or mild - this variant is when/if it takes hold over here.

I believe it was the scientist that "discovered" the Omicron variant. As I heard it, she reckoned that yes, it would be more virulent, more transmissable but at the same time, because of the multiple variants that have already emerged, the virus is weakening. It doesn't have the same potency to hospitalise or kill.

The original variant had the capacity to transmit literally, on a one to one basis. Delta was 1 to 10 and Omicron 1 to 100.

We have one guy over here, Professor Mike Baker, he's an Epidemiologist and he reckons that if you are double vaxxed (we only have Pfizer) then you will have at least an 85% efficacy against Omicron. Boosted, takes it back up to 95%.l
 
Sep 25, 2010
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Johnson, will NEVER say no, to xmas parties in England, this year.
Because of the No.10 parties last year.

He will not come on TV, and say NOW that you can’t have a xmas party.
Because it will appear as one rule for him, and another rule for us, total hypocrisy.
 
Jul 15, 2006
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Kenton, Devon
I believe it was the scientist that "discovered" the Omicron variant. As I heard it, she reckoned that yes, it would be more virulent, more transmissable but at the same time, because of the multiple variants that have already emerged, the virus is weakening. It doesn't have the same potency to hospitalise or kill.

It doesn't matter if it doesn't have the same potency to hospitalise and a smaller percentage of those infected require medical intervention (although I am aware of one case at Torbay & South Devon who has been admitted with Omicron when numbers are very low compared to Delta at the moment) - the fact that it's more transmissible means the health service can still be overwhelmed with patients who need acute care. That's the concern here in the UK at the moment when we head into the winter when the NHS usually struggles with influenza.
 
Sep 6, 2006
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Thought I’d fact check this on Worldometer and gov.uk as you do have a propensity to - shall we say - over-egg things.

- 7 day average for cases has been fluctuating between 25k and 48k since rules were relaxed In June - Delta the dominant strain. We are currently at a high point in that range and about to see if Omicron has an impact.

- Admissions - up to 30th Nov (latest available figures), admissions were down around 1% week on week and had been steadily falling since late October.

- 7 day average for deaths has been steadily decreasing since early November. We have seen a levelling out of the curve in the last few days, but as it stands deaths are marginally down in the last 7 days.

And what’s been discovered about Omicron is included in those stats.

So, that last tirade just isn’t true Joe, is it?

Why do people do this? I don’t get it.
But you say yourself Frank 'currently at a high point in that range. So it's not completely fictitious is it?
 
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Frank Butcher

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Oct 9, 2003
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Gairloch
But you say yourself Frank 'currently at a high point in that range. So it's not completely fictitious is it?

Well most of it, so that’s OK I suppose. Actually no it isn’t - it was the usual social media inspired rollocks that’s best left there.

Infections starting to rise now backed by Omicron. 7-10 days time we will see if there is any rise in hospitalisations or sadly death rates. Those things are key to Omicron much more than case rate.
 

Pogleswoody

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Good to read that ‘A 57 year-old Downing St man is keen to help police with their enquiries’.
Is that the same guy who is accused of throwing a 41 year old woman under a bus earlier this week? :unsure:
 
Jul 15, 2006
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Kenton, Devon
Good to see the Govt's new drive to combat the new variant is off to a flying start: first the booking website crashes, and now there's no lateral flow tests available to order online...

Looks like LFT's are the new toilet paper.
 
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Jul 15, 2006
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Well most of it, so that’s OK I suppose. Actually no it isn’t - it was the usual social media inspired rollocks that’s best left there.

Infections starting to rise now backed by Omicron. 7-10 days time we will see if there is any rise in hospitalisations or sadly death rates. Those things are key to Omicron much more than case rate.

Small numbers at the moment, but hospitalisations are now happening, plus first confirmed death.
 

Frank Butcher

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Oct 9, 2003
3,761
153
Gairloch
Small numbers at the moment, but hospitalisations are now happening, plus first confirmed death.

Sad news of course but the key is to see if hospitalisation rates increase (relative to Delta) for either of two reasons - a. severity of illness, or b. percentage of a much larger case rate.

Too early to tell if Omicron is having an effect yet, but it should be noted that hospitalisations are starting to slowly rise - that’s backward looking 10-14 days though so most likely relative to Delta. Death rates still flat. So Delta is only marginally shifting hospitalisation and death rates these days compared to the case rate. That’s the good news.

Case rates are bound to rise now that Omicron is out there with its revised infection fingerprint, but what we’re obviously hoping not to see is some exponential move on hospitalisations in the next week or two - that would be an Omicron effect and very bad news indeed.
 
Sep 6, 2006
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Sad news of course but the key is to see if hospitalisation rates increase (relative to Delta) for either of two reasons - a. severity of illness, or b. percentage of a much larger case rate.

Too early to tell if Omicron is having an effect yet, but it should be noted that hospitalisations are starting to slowly rise - that’s backward looking 10-14 days though so most likely relative to Delta. Death rates still flat. So Delta is only marginally shifting hospitalisation and death rates these days compared to the case rate. That’s the good news.

Case rates are bound to rise now that Omicron is out there with its revised infection fingerprint, but what we’re obviously hoping not to see is some exponential move on hospitalisations in the next week or two - that would be an Omicron effect and very bad news indeed.
Pretty inevitable I would have thought with the high infection rate.
 

GreenThing

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Obviously the stats are a guide only, but they only show hospitalisations and deaths, they don’t show how many people are currently incapacitated and have their lives changed by this illness. The stats alone do not show how devastating this disease really is.