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Coronavirus (merged threads)

Nov 15, 2011
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Pottypilgrim":9wkp31am said:
themightykeithfear":9wkp31am said:
Only Italy could possibly get near UKs death rate, it would mean 10s of thousands of deaths in those countries and it isn't happening, in fact deaths per day are relatively low now across Europe and still about the same as in the UK as in the others you quoted, and all going down thanks to lockdowns and vaccinations. Germany despite having a much larger population than the UK has over 50,000 fewer deaths.

People are unhappy in those countries, particularly about the vaccine and rightly so. The mystery to me is that people in this country are so supine when in addition to topping the death rates we also have the worst hit economy in the developed world, although of course the damage will only really crystalise when lockdown and furlough ends and Brexit starts to bite.

So, we don't currently have the worst hit economy in the developed world at all and you are just making an assumption here or have I read that wrong?

It’s the OECD s figures potty google it
 
Oct 9, 2003
3,503
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Aberdeen
themightykeithfear":2twr6yjs said:
You see Frank I criticised the Eus failures and praised our vaccine rollout and yet you still think I have an “agenda”. It’s the difference between a patriot like me who wants the best for his country and isn’t afraid to point out rights and wrongs on both sides, and a nationalist like you that blinds you into prioritising doing Johnny Foreigner down rather than wanting what is best for your country, Any facts pointed out is a traitor with an agenda. Brexit in a nutshell.

it’s why this country with world beating excess deaths AND economic harm has definitively dealt with the pandemic worse than any other country on the planet. Whether you like it or not.

Here we go again - the debate can’t be won so it leads to labelling me. C’est la vie (see what I did there? ;) ).

Simply put I deal in facts - your last few posts demonstrate that you clearly do not. No more to say on this because there's nothing more to be said.
 
Sep 6, 2006
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Frank_Butcher":kstk56or said:
themightykeithfear":kstk56or said:
Oh its not about the economy, what is it about? The blue passports made in Poland that give you less freedoms than the red ones? Beats me. And no other European country will get anywhere near the number of UK deaths as numbers now are thankfully going down everywhere.

As for the vaccine rollout no-one has to do what Brussels tells them. Any country can do what they want, as we did when during the transition period we decided to do it ourselves which any EU country could have done. And yes they've made a real mess of it.

In this country the vaccination rollout has been a fantastic success because its being done by people who actually do this sort of thing for a living, unlike the failed test and trace rollout, which was given untendered to the unqualified head of the jockey club, (who let the Cheltenham Festival go ahead), wife of a tory mp who spaffed £37,000,000,000 and is largely responsible for the mess we're in now.

tmkf - all opinions are valid as long as they have some substance.

But what you say is not true. Cases are rising in many European countries with new lockdowns being enforced. Rises in deaths will follow as they always do, and already are in the likes of Poland and Italy. Italy is quite likely to reach a similar number as the UK (deaths per capita) as will many European nations (France, Spain will be in the ballpark, smaller nations like the Czechs and Belgium already higher). Though it's all moot as comparisons are fraught with difficulty as has been debated here on numerous occasions ad nauseum. Have a look back through the thread before you joined it (and the older one). Germany, lauded for its achievements in wave 1 has had an awful time through wave 2, while France imposes lockdowns at will but is still tracking at 20K + infections a day. Public sentiment in both countries is not good.

It IS true. What he said was total number of deaths, not relative to population. Read the post properly
 
Sep 6, 2006
11,220
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Frank_Butcher":2fqm1gqw said:
themightykeithfear":2fqm1gqw said:
You see Frank I criticised the Eus failures and praised our vaccine rollout and yet you still think I have an “agenda”. It’s the difference between a patriot like me who wants the best for his country and isn’t afraid to point out rights and wrongs on both sides, and a nationalist like you that blinds you into prioritising doing Johnny Foreigner down rather than wanting what is best for your country, Any facts pointed out is a traitor with an agenda. Brexit in a nutshell.

it’s why this country with world beating excess deaths AND economic harm has definitively dealt with the pandemic worse than any other country on the planet. Whether you like it or not.

Here we go again - the debate can’t be won so it leads to labelling me. C’est la vie (see what I did there? ;) ).

Simply put I deal in facts - your last few posts demonstrate that you clearly do not. No more to say on this because there's nothing more to be said.

There are lies, damned lies and statistics ('facts'). Everybody knows that.
 
Oct 9, 2003
3,503
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Aberdeen
Balham_Green":jbc01s69 said:
Frank_Butcher":jbc01s69 said:
themightykeithfear":jbc01s69 said:
You see Frank I criticised the Eus failures and praised our vaccine rollout and yet you still think I have an “agenda”. It’s the difference between a patriot like me who wants the best for his country and isn’t afraid to point out rights and wrongs on both sides, and a nationalist like you that blinds you into prioritising doing Johnny Foreigner down rather than wanting what is best for your country, Any facts pointed out is a traitor with an agenda. Brexit in a nutshell.

it’s why this country with world beating excess deaths AND economic harm has definitively dealt with the pandemic worse than any other country on the planet. Whether you like it or not.

Here we go again - the debate can’t be won so it leads to labelling me. C’est la vie (see what I did there? ;) ).

Simply put I deal in facts - your last few posts demonstrate that you clearly do not. No more to say on this because there's nothing more to be said.

There are lies, damned lies and statistics ('facts'). Everybody knows that.

I'll indulge you this once. The last 10 or so posts have stemmed from me taking issue with this tmkf statement:

"And no other European country will get anywhere near the number of UK deaths as numbers now are thankfully going down everywhere."

I contested that this was not true and that numbers in Europe were generally rising. So here are some indicators:

- The ECDC reported that for the last week in February cases were rising in 21 European countries (Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Estonia, Finland, France, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Sweden)
- Worldometer shows that of the 5 'major' Western European nations cases are currently rising gradually in France and Germany, rising sharply in Italy, and falling in the UK and Spain
- Media reports today that a 3rd wave in Poland is gathering momentum with a weekly 25% rise in cases and deaths following suit.
- Hospitals around the Paris area have been told to reduce non-Covid care and surgery by 40% because the pandemic has filled most intensive care beds.
- Mario Draghi, Italian PM has warned today of a worsening health emergency

- And today, Chris Whitty said "A lot of people may think it's all over but I would encourage them to look at continental Europe right now ..."

Remember this is all about the statement I questionned, not about history or mistakes that may have been made.

So for once,

without obfuscation if you can,

answering this question only,

tell me BG

Which of the above statistics, commentary and 'facts' do you perhaps disagree with?
 
Nov 15, 2011
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All you have quoted are correct but its also correct "no other European country will get anywhere near the number of UK deaths as numbers now are thankfully going down everywhere.", unless of course a new resistant variant comes to light, in which case all countries will be hit.

The vaccine is being rolled out in Europe, albeit slower than here , by autumn its planned that all adults should have have had the first dose. (Remember Italy France Germany Spain etc are doing it slightly differently and are way ahead of the UK in terms of administering both doses), Even now the average deaths in those countries are less than an average of 200 per day, (similar to the UK),and we have had tens of thousands of deaths more than any other European country, Italy are the only country anywhere near and they have had 25,000 fewer than the UK. It appears for now at least and thankfully, the vaccine will save us all from the huge death tolls we have had over the last year.
 
Oct 9, 2003
3,503
12
Aberdeen
themightykeithfear":1qhjn1na said:
All you have quoted are correct but its also correct "no other European country will get anywhere near the number of UK deaths as numbers now are thankfully going down everywhere.", unless of course a new resistant variant comes to light, in which case all countries will be hit.

The vaccine is being rolled out in Europe, albeit slower than here , by autumn its planned that all adults should have have had the first dose. (Remember Italy France Germany Spain etc are doing it slightly differently and are way ahead of the UK in terms of administering both doses), Even now the average deaths in those countries are less than an average of 200 per day, (similar to the UK),and we have had tens of thousands of deaths more than any other European country, Italy are the only country anywhere near and they have had 25,000 fewer than the UK. It appears for now at least and thankfully, the vaccine will save us all from the huge death tolls we have had over the last year.

I have no idea where you get your information but I'd suggest looking elsewhere.

Average death rates last 7 days:

Italy - 308 and rising. Infections rising fast.
France - 292 and falling slowly. Infections rising slowly.
Spain - 261 and falling/levelling off. Infections falling.
Germany - 254 and falling. Infections rising.
UK - 206 and falling rapidly. Infections falling rapidly.

Where infections rise, death rates will follow in roughly 14 days. So see if you can spot the trends.

Your use of absolute numbers is also flawed due to any number of parameters but particularly reporting methods which are not standardised (but should be IMO).

There is no celebration that other countries are having problems, but equally there is no reason to continually do our country down. When all this is done I'm pretty confident that the ballpark of deaths per capita will be similar for all 5 'major' European countries with the exception of Germany who did very well in the first wave only.
 
Jul 15, 2006
3,816
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Kenton, Devon
Pretty much agree with Frank on the above. I'd also add that Italy is "only" 24k behind the UK in terms of confirmed Covid deaths: they'd only need a wave like we experienced in January (and the data from Italy is looking worrying) and then they'll be there or there abouts with us in terms of overall mortality.
 
Nov 15, 2011
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97
Franks numbers show that numbers in Europe are pretty similar to the UK, a bit less here because we are a bit ahead with the rollout of the vaccine.

We know that one dose is 80-85% effective and that 90% of deaths are those aged over 60. ALL those over 60 have been offered a vaccine in the UK and 90% have taken it, If the scientists are right then within a few weeks the numbers of deaths in the UK will be very low even if there are local outbreaks as lockdown is eased. European countries are a few weeks behind the UK, but even there most over 60s have had the first dose, and many more than in the UK have had the 2nd dose.

With the most vulnerable vaccinated, then unless there is a new deadly strain, thank god the days of over 1,000 dying are over, and unless the scientists have got it very very wrong, deaths throughout Europe will soon be very low. The rest of the world is another problem. .
 
Oct 9, 2003
3,503
12
Aberdeen
themightykeithfear":3mgnb4w6 said:
Franks numbers show that numbers in Europe are pretty similar to the UK, a bit less here because we are a bit ahead with the rollout of the vaccine.

We know that one dose is 80-85% effective and that 90% of deaths are those aged over 60. ALL those over 60 have been offered a vaccine in the UK and 90% have taken it, If the scientists are right then within a few weeks the numbers of deaths in the UK will be very low even if there are local outbreaks as lockdown is eased. European countries are a few weeks behind the UK, but even there most over 60s have had the first dose, and many more than in the UK have had the 2nd dose.

With the most vulnerable vaccinated, then unless there is a new deadly strain, thank god the days of over 1,000 dying are over, and unless the scientists have got it very very wrong, deaths throughout Europe will soon be very low. The rest of the world is another problem. .

OMG
 
Oct 9, 2003
3,503
12
Aberdeen
themightykeithfear":ujl25uzc said:
Sounds like Frank's an anti vaccer

Oh go on, do tell why. I can barely stand the suspense.

But, to save you time my eagerly awaited 1st vaccine is all booked at the Theatre of Greens next week, so I guess you're wrong.

And just in case you need any more hints, today's numbers show that the UK average down to 190 now, whilst Italy is going further North over 300 - and their infection rate has risen 17% week on week.

That's all the help I can give you - I wish I could do more.
 
Nov 15, 2011
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Today there were 145 more deaths in Italy than in in the UK according to the worldometer 376-231. At that rate it would take 6 months for Italy to overtake the UK. Yesterday Italy cleared the Astra Zeneca jab and hope to give the first jab to all over 65s, which account for over 90% of deaths, by the end of April.

Do the maths OMG
 
Oct 9, 2003
3,503
12
Aberdeen
themightykeithfear":1btlufkj said:
Today there were 145 more deaths in Italy than in in the UK according to the worldometer 376-231. At that rate it would take 6 months for Italy to overtake the UK. Yesterday Italy cleared the Astra Zeneca jab and hope to give the first jab to all over 65s, which account for over 90% of deaths, by the end of April.

Do the maths OMG

Look, the first sentence is correct, but your approach is flawed. Here's why.

Stop thinking in absolute numbers - statistically speaking they're irrelevant (I stress that I'm using the word 'irrelevant' in a statistical sense). Try thinking about the reasons why that might be. A first clue might be population. Then you could think of demographics, urban mix, social attitudes, transport systems, scientific guidance, government policy and inconsistent reporting methodologies. We know for instance that France and Spain have reported care home deaths differently - this is just one example in Western Europe. As for countries further afield like Russia and Iran, do you believe their absolute figures? No, they themselves have admitted at times that figures might be much, much higher. There are probably a dozen more reasons why using absolute numbers as a comparison does not work.

While the mortality rates that Quinny and I have pointed out to you might be better, even they aren't the best measure. The best measure (but still not entirely accurate) is actually excess deaths and to be clear the UK does not show up well. But, given the emerging problems in Europe which I have clearly shown, then as I say it is very likely that 4 of the 5 biggest Western European countries will be in the same ballpark come the end of this crisis (well, whatever the end actually means).

I hope that helps but if you don't want to believe what you see, I can't help you. Horses, water and all that stuff.