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Coronavirus (merged threads)

Jan 2, 2010
1,366
17
crownhillpilgrim":2shiwwla said:
I have not been a fan of the Govs approach so far (too much of an overreaction and trampling on civil liberties), but that is sixth form Guardian reader conspiracy theory nonsense... the government cannot stop throwing money at the NHS.

Trampling our civil liberties? Really?

So how many toilet rolls did you stockpile then..?
 
Shadowknight":t0rwjvl3 said:
crownhillpilgrim":t0rwjvl3 said:
I have not been a fan of the Govs approach so far (too much of an overreaction and trampling on civil liberties), but that is sixth form Guardian reader conspiracy theory nonsense... the government cannot stop throwing money at the NHS.

Trampling our civil liberties? Really?

So how many toilet rolls did you stockpile then..?

Idiots like crownhillpilgrim may soon change their tune with this morning’s news. St George’s hospital in South London now reporting an influx of healthy 30-40 year olds in a serious condition.
 
Apr 15, 2004
2,845
86
East Devon
MickyD":3k1pa0px said:
On the other hand, what worries me is the long history of so many governments' willingness to use crises, real or imagined or even manufactured (the Reichstag fire comes to mind), to start opportunistic wars and to impose the most draconian strictures on their own citizenry - the way in more recent times that the so-called war on terror turned us all into acquiescent surveillance zombies, for instance. (9/11 was real; the war on terror was a sham.)

What we're currently living in is not an imagined or manufactured crisis - it's already a worldwide societal and economic crisis, whatever the eventual medical fallout - so here's hoping that no government ultimately uses it turn itself into a warmongering totalitarian regime, at least any more than some already are.
Just scrolled back a few pages on this thread having not kept up recently and this from MickyD leaps out. It's not some absurd Guardian-reading-liberal-luvvy paranoia he articulates - it's a real & genuine fear. The thing that bothers me a tad is how some people seem to be embracing the idea of lock-downs - trying to out-do each other for draconian measures. Calls for the army to patrol streets to arrest anyone daring to go jogging without having the right government paper-work. Jeeez - it's scary Orwellian stuff.

Don't get me wrong - it's a serious situation and we must follow scientific advice & evidence to minimise the impact. But we should have the right to question the risks and benefits of measures imposed by government diktat without being condemned. Should we stop people going outside at all so that even a solo stroll across Dartmoor becomes a criminal offence? This virus that spreads mostly from touching contaminated surfaces and (to a much lesser degree) by inhaling air-borne droplets exhaled an infected person (something that can only realistically happen in close proximity in an enclosed area). How would that help exactly?

A hobby horse of mine has always been that people generally have an irrational understanding of risks & probabilities - and lose all logic e.g. a fear of terrorism that is completely out of proportion........ so that after the 9/11 attacks there was a massive drop in people flying in the US which then led to a surge in road traffic deaths so more additional people died on the roads than in the attacks themselves. Similarly, I can't help thinking that a complete lock down and stopping people going out at all will have such a minimal impact on the spread of the virus but will cause huge additional emotional, mental, economic strains that will affect more people's lives & health to a greater degree. How many kids are currently being put at huge risk being kept away from school and in abusive homes? How many livelihoods are being sacrificed that will lead to family break-downs, mental health issues, suicides etc? It's all about risks and benefits - and I seriously think we're already at the point of diminishing returns and don't buy into the calls for even tougher, even more draconian measures. This virus will pass - but we could be adding to it's impact unnecessarily. Theresa May (remember her?) asked Boris at PM's question time last week what was the exit strategy for these measures. He didn't answer ....... shock.
 
Sep 6, 2006
11,345
285
Ave_IT":3i9cd2hd said:
MickyD":3i9cd2hd said:
On the other hand, what worries me is the long history of so many governments' willingness to use crises, real or imagined or even manufactured (the Reichstag fire comes to mind), to start opportunistic wars and to impose the most draconian strictures on their own citizenry - the way in more recent times that the so-called war on terror turned us all into acquiescent surveillance zombies, for instance. (9/11 was real; the war on terror was a sham.)

What we're currently living in is not an imagined or manufactured crisis - it's already a worldwide societal and economic crisis, whatever the eventual medical fallout - so here's hoping that no government ultimately uses it turn itself into a warmongering totalitarian regime, at least any more than some already are.
Just scrolled back a few pages on this thread having not kept up recently and this from MickyD leaps out. It's not some absurd Guardian-reading-liberal-luvvy paranoia he articulates - it's a real & genuine fear. The thing that bothers me a tad is how some people seem to be embracing the idea of lock-downs - trying to out-do each other for draconian measures. Calls for the army to patrol streets to arrest anyone daring to go jogging without having the right government paper-work. Jeeez - it's scary Orwellian stuff.

Don't get me wrong - it's a serious situation and we must follow scientific advice & evidence to minimise the impact. But we should have the right to question the risks and benefits of measures imposed by government diktat without being condemned. Should we stop people going outside at all so that even a solo stroll across Dartmoor becomes a criminal offence? This virus that spreads mostly from touching contaminated surfaces and (to a much lesser degree) by inhaling air-borne droplets exhaled an infected person (something that can only realistically happen in close proximity in an enclosed area). How would that help exactly?

A hobby horse of mine has always been that people generally have an irrational understanding of risks & probabilities - and lose all logic e.g. a fear of terrorism that is completely out of proportion........ so that after the 9/11 attacks there was a massive drop in people flying in the US which then led to a surge in road traffic deaths so more additional people died on the roads than in the attacks themselves. Similarly, I can't help thinking that a complete lock down and stopping people going out at all will have such a minimal impact on the spread of the virus but will cause huge additional emotional, mental, economic strains that will affect more people's lives & health to a greater degree. How many kids are currently being put at huge risk being kept away from school and in abusive homes? How many livelihoods are being sacrificed that will lead to family break-downs, mental health issues, suicides etc? It's all about risks and benefits - and I seriously think we're already at the point of diminishing returns and don't buy into the calls for even tougher, even more draconian measures. This virus will pass - but we could be adding to it's impact unnecessarily. Theresa May (remember her?) asked Boris at PM's question time last week what was the exit strategy for these measures. He didn't answer ....... shock.

Some valid points. Dont know where you get the idea from that its easier to get the virus from surfaces than air borne droplets though.
 
Apr 15, 2004
2,845
86
East Devon
Balham_Green":vnuq51ln said:
Some valid points. Dont know where you get the idea from that its easier to get the virus from surfaces than air borne droplets though.
Could have sworn I'd read & heard that early-on during the outbreak so just Googled a few well-reputed sites to quote a source or two............ but seems I was wrong (yes - it does very occasionally happen :oops: ) - they reckon the air-borne route is more common.
 

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Sep 13, 2003
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Ave_IT":1s1clwo0 said:
MickyD":1s1clwo0 said:
On the other hand, what worries me is the long history of so many governments' willingness to use crises, real or imagined or even manufactured (the Reichstag fire comes to mind), to start opportunistic wars and to impose the most draconian strictures on their own citizenry - the way in more recent times that the so-called war on terror turned us all into acquiescent surveillance zombies, for instance. (9/11 was real; the war on terror was a sham.)

What we're currently living in is not an imagined or manufactured crisis - it's already a worldwide societal and economic crisis, whatever the eventual medical fallout - so here's hoping that no government ultimately uses it turn itself into a warmongering totalitarian regime, at least any more than some already are.
Just scrolled back a few pages on this thread having not kept up recently and this from MickyD leaps out. It's not some absurd Guardian-reading-liberal-luvvy paranoia he articulates - it's a real & genuine fear. The thing that bothers me a tad is how some people seem to be embracing the idea of lock-downs - trying to out-do each other for draconian measures. Calls for the army to patrol streets to arrest anyone daring to go jogging without having the right government paper-work. Jeeez - it's scary Orwellian stuff.

Don't get me wrong - it's a serious situation and we must follow scientific advice & evidence to minimise the impact. But we should have the right to question the risks and benefits of measures imposed by government diktat without being condemned. Should we stop people going outside at all so that even a solo stroll across Dartmoor becomes a criminal offence? This virus that spreads mostly from touching contaminated surfaces and (to a much lesser degree) by inhaling air-borne droplets exhaled an infected person (something that can only realistically happen in close proximity in an enclosed area). How would that help exactly?

A hobby horse of mine has always been that people generally have an irrational understanding of risks & probabilities - and lose all logic e.g. a fear of terrorism that is completely out of proportion........ so that after the 9/11 attacks there was a massive drop in people flying in the US which then led to a surge in road traffic deaths so more additional people died on the roads than in the attacks themselves. Similarly, I can't help thinking that a complete lock down and stopping people going out at all will have such a minimal impact on the spread of the virus but will cause huge additional emotional, mental, economic strains that will affect more people's lives & health to a greater degree. How many kids are currently being put at huge risk being kept away from school and in abusive homes? How many livelihoods are being sacrificed that will lead to family break-downs, mental health issues, suicides etc? It's all about risks and benefits - and I seriously think we're already at the point of diminishing returns and don't buy into the calls for even tougher, even more draconian measures. This virus will pass - but we could be adding to it's impact unnecessarily. Theresa May (remember her?) asked Boris at PM's question time last week what was the exit strategy for these measures. He didn't answer ....... shock.

A week or so ago, I would have agreed with you about the civil liberties side of things. However, the scenes over the weekend show that people cannot be responsible and therefore need to be forced to do the right thing. The sooner we lock down and stop this thing taking off exponentially, the better.
 
May 16, 2016
3,727
121
Ave_IT":2w0du17x said:
MickyD":2w0du17x said:
On the other hand, what worries me is the long history of so many governments' willingness to use crises, real or imagined or even manufactured (the Reichstag fire comes to mind), to start opportunistic wars and to impose the most draconian strictures on their own citizenry - the way in more recent times that the so-called war on terror turned us all into acquiescent surveillance zombies, for instance. (9/11 was real; the war on terror was a sham.)

What we're currently living in is not an imagined or manufactured crisis - it's already a worldwide societal and economic crisis, whatever the eventual medical fallout - so here's hoping that no government ultimately uses it turn itself into a warmongering totalitarian regime, at least any more than some already are.
Just scrolled back a few pages on this thread having not kept up recently and this from MickyD leaps out. It's not some absurd Guardian-reading-liberal-luvvy paranoia he articulates - it's a real & genuine fear. The thing that bothers me a tad is how some people seem to be embracing the idea of lock-downs - trying to out-do each other for draconian measures. Calls for the army to patrol streets to arrest anyone daring to go jogging without having the right government paper-work. Jeeez - it's scary Orwellian stuff.

Don't get me wrong - it's a serious situation and we must follow scientific advice & evidence to minimise the impact. But we should have the right to question the risks and benefits of measures imposed by government diktat without being condemned. Should we stop people going outside at all so that even a solo stroll across Dartmoor becomes a criminal offence? This virus that spreads mostly from touching contaminated surfaces and (to a much lesser degree) by inhaling air-borne droplets exhaled an infected person (something that can only realistically happen in close proximity in an enclosed area). How would that help exactly?

A hobby horse of mine has always been that people generally have an irrational understanding of risks & probabilities - and lose all logic e.g. a fear of terrorism that is completely out of proportion........ so that after the 9/11 attacks there was a massive drop in people flying in the US which then led to a surge in road traffic deaths so more additional people died on the roads than in the attacks themselves. Similarly, I can't help thinking that a complete lock down and stopping people going out at all will have such a minimal impact on the spread of the virus but will cause huge additional emotional, mental, economic strains that will affect more people's lives & health to a greater degree. How many kids are currently being put at huge risk being kept away from school and in abusive homes? How many livelihoods are being sacrificed that will lead to family break-downs, mental health issues, suicides etc? It's all about risks and benefits - and I seriously think we're already at the point of diminishing returns and don't buy into the calls for even tougher, even more draconian measures. This virus will pass - but we could be adding to it's impact unnecessarily. Theresa May (remember her?) asked Boris at PM's question time last week what was the exit strategy for these measures. He didn't answer ....... shock.

Being somewhere that's currently locked down, I'd say the Health Workers, Families and Officials would have a different opinion to yours. Spain today registered 462 coronavirus deaths in just 24 hours. The worst hit area being Madrid.

Malaga Province has seen a dip in cases probably because everyone is complying. Random walkers and breakers of Rules have been Fined, the more rebellious of Offenders handled somewhat more robustly. The majority are applauding this approach and there's less of the Hysteria that seems to be building at Home.

As far as I've read, the Science of how the Virus spreads isnt yet fully understood. The importance of slowing or stopping Mobility until better placed to carry out Mass Testing is of high importance.

You say the Virus will pass, how do you know that and at what cost to the Health Workers, Older Generation and worsening Economics if we dont at least try to do something ?
 
Aug 17, 2011
8,196
1
55
Kings Tamerton
Something I've asked a couple of times and something I'm really confused about is still this talk of being 2 weeks behind Italy in the outbreak and a report on Sky I've just seen makes it more confusing.

This guy on Sky compared the time it took for Italy to go from 1 to 233 deaths which was 7 days. UK by comparison took 21 days to achieve the same mortality rate which does point to 2 weeks. However the initial deaths in both countries happened on the same day. If the viruses goal was to achieve 233 deaths than yes Italy was quicker but it didn't stop there and continued on quicker than every other country including China. The UK by comparison, well we don't know the comparison because it has taken longer but from the same starting point. We still do not know how high our mortality rates will go and we are two weeks closer to the end of the crisis than we were 14 days ago. If tomorrow there is a magic dust that cures everyone we won't catch the Italians up so why does everyone assume we will?
 
May 16, 2016
3,727
121
Ade the green":2wnk97kc said:
Something I've asked a couple of times and something I'm really confused about is still this talk of being 2 weeks behind Italy in the outbreak and a report on Sky I've just seen makes it more confusing.

This guy on Sky compared the time it took for Italy to go from 1 to 233 deaths which was 7 days. UK by comparison took 21 days to achieve the same mortality rate which does point to 2 weeks. However the initial deaths in both countries happened on the same day. If the viruses goal was to achieve 233 deaths than yes Italy was quicker but it didn't stop there and continued on quicker than every other country including China. The UK by comparison, well we don't know the comparison because it has taken longer but from the same starting point. We still do not know how high our mortality rates will go and we are two weeks closer to the end of the crisis than we were 14 days ago. If tomorrow there is a magic dust that cures everyone we won't catch the Italians up so why does everyone assume we will?

How does anyone dertimine a Starting Point ? The initial Deaths in the UK had traceable links to China and Italy. Because we don't know how many are infected and I'd wager that a large percentage of those that are have just spent the Weekend in ignorance or defiance, merrily spreading it as they pranced selfishly around the Countryside and Coastal Towns of the UK because they wanted to and it's only a bit of Flu. Which is probably what happened in Italy. Life continued as normal in ignorance, the UK has at least had the 'benefit' of time to prepare armed with knowledge, a Tool unfortunately wasted by the actions of a sizeable chunk of it's Countrymen. London with it's higher Density of People has shown how quickly and easily it can spread without adequate action and protection.

Wait until the end of this Week and the end of the initial mass Incubation and the numbers will probably rocket. Week 2 of Lock Down in Spain and we're told this Week will be the worst Nationally with a Spike expected.

Personally, I'd use the Comparisons as a Tool to judge how things can go wrong so quickly if we dont act. I'd rather not see it as a competition. Don't use it as an excuse to think you're safe and going to carry on as normal.

Lets hope the Lock Down works and we never reach the Italian levels. Your best Comparison is against how it was Yesterday, that's how bad it can get.
 
Aug 17, 2011
8,196
1
55
Kings Tamerton
Guiri Green":1zb8w7h1 said:
Ade the green":1zb8w7h1 said:
Something I've asked a couple of times and something I'm really confused about is still this talk of being 2 weeks behind Italy in the outbreak and a report on Sky I've just seen makes it more confusing.

This guy on Sky compared the time it took for Italy to go from 1 to 233 deaths which was 7 days. UK by comparison took 21 days to achieve the same mortality rate which does point to 2 weeks. However the initial deaths in both countries happened on the same day. If the viruses goal was to achieve 233 deaths than yes Italy was quicker but it didn't stop there and continued on quicker than every other country including China. The UK by comparison, well we don't know the comparison because it has taken longer but from the same starting point. We still do not know how high our mortality rates will go and we are two weeks closer to the end of the crisis than we were 14 days ago. If tomorrow there is a magic dust that cures everyone we won't catch the Italians up so why does everyone assume we will?

How does anyone dertimine a Starting Point ? The initial Deaths in the UK had traceable links to China and Italy. Because we don't know how many are infected and I'd wager that a large percentage of those that are have just spent the Weekend in ignorance or defiance, merrily spreading it as they pranced selfishly around the Countryside and Coastal Towns of the UK because they wanted to and it's only a bit of Flu. Which is probably what happened in Italy. Life continued as normal in ignorance, the UK has at least had the 'benefit' of time to prepare armed with knowledge, a Tool unfortunately wasted by the actions of a sizeable chunk of it's Countrymen. London with it's higher Density of People has shown how quickly and easily it can spread without adequate action and protection.

Wait until the end of this Week and the end of the initial mass Incubation and the numbers will probably rocket. Week 2 of Lock Down in Spain and we're told this Week will be the worst Nationally with a Spike expected.

Personally, I'd use the Comparisons as a Tool to judge how things can go wrong so quickly if we dont act. I'd rather not see it as a competition. Don't use it as an excuse to think you're safe and going to carry on as normal.

Lets hope the Lock Down works and we never reach the Italian levels. Your best Comparison is against how it was Yesterday, that's how bad it can get.


My point being that if the start point is the first deaths which occurred on the same day that we’re not two weeks later than the Italians. If I remember correctly we had just had three or four storm fronts crossing the country which would have kept people in whereas in the milder climate of Italy it was business as usual but the dates would be the same.

As you said there will be a spike sometimes soon because Brits are morons and need alcohol and entertainment on a minute to minute basis and won’t isolate. As seen by the road across the top of Tregantle over the weekend.
 
Sep 6, 2006
11,345
285
Guiri Green":1c5hhv9a said:
Ade the green":1c5hhv9a said:
Something I've asked a couple of times and something I'm really confused about is still this talk of being 2 weeks behind Italy in the outbreak and a report on Sky I've just seen makes it more confusing.

This guy on Sky compared the time it took for Italy to go from 1 to 233 deaths which was 7 days. UK by comparison took 21 days to achieve the same mortality rate which does point to 2 weeks. However the initial deaths in both countries happened on the same day. If the viruses goal was to achieve 233 deaths than yes Italy was quicker but it didn't stop there and continued on quicker than every other country including China. The UK by comparison, well we don't know the comparison because it has taken longer but from the same starting point. We still do not know how high our mortality rates will go and we are two weeks closer to the end of the crisis than we were 14 days ago. If tomorrow there is a magic dust that cures everyone we won't catch the Italians up so why does everyone assume we will?

How does anyone dertimine a Starting Point ? The initial Deaths in the UK had traceable links to China and Italy. Because we don't know how many are infected and I'd wager that a large percentage of those that are have just spent the Weekend in ignorance or defiance, merrily spreading it as they pranced selfishly around the Countryside and Coastal Towns of the UK because they wanted to and it's only a bit of Flu. Which is probably what happened in Italy. Life continued as normal in ignorance, the UK has at least had the 'benefit' of time to prepare armed with knowledge, a Tool unfortunately wasted by the actions of a sizeable chunk of it's Countrymen. London with it's higher Density of People has shown how quickly and easily it can spread without adequate action and protection.

Wait until the end of this Week and the end of the initial mass Incubation and the numbers will probably rocket. Week 2 of Lock Down in Spain and we're told this Week will be the worst Nationally with a Spike expected.

Personally, I'd use the Comparisons as a Tool to judge how things can go wrong so quickly if we dont act. I'd rather not see it as a competition. Don't use it as an excuse to think you're safe and going to carry on as normal.

Lets hope the Lock Down works and we never reach the Italian levels. Your best Comparison is against how it was Yesterday, that's how bad it can get.

Re people going to the countryside etc it was only a few days ago that we were told there was no major risk to people attending football matches.
 
May 16, 2016
3,727
121
Balham_Green":2vzkyuca said:
Guiri Green":2vzkyuca said:
Ade the green":2vzkyuca said:
Something I've asked a couple of times and something I'm really confused about is still this talk of being 2 weeks behind Italy in the outbreak and a report on Sky I've just seen makes it more confusing.

This guy on Sky compared the time it took for Italy to go from 1 to 233 deaths which was 7 days. UK by comparison took 21 days to achieve the same mortality rate which does point to 2 weeks. However the initial deaths in both countries happened on the same day. If the viruses goal was to achieve 233 deaths than yes Italy was quicker but it didn't stop there and continued on quicker than every other country including China. The UK by comparison, well we don't know the comparison because it has taken longer but from the same starting point. We still do not know how high our mortality rates will go and we are two weeks closer to the end of the crisis than we were 14 days ago. If tomorrow there is a magic dust that cures everyone we won't catch the Italians up so why does everyone assume we will?

How does anyone dertimine a Starting Point ? The initial Deaths in the UK had traceable links to China and Italy. Because we don't know how many are infected and I'd wager that a large percentage of those that are have just spent the Weekend in ignorance or defiance, merrily spreading it as they pranced selfishly around the Countryside and Coastal Towns of the UK because they wanted to and it's only a bit of Flu. Which is probably what happened in Italy. Life continued as normal in ignorance, the UK has at least had the 'benefit' of time to prepare armed with knowledge, a Tool unfortunately wasted by the actions of a sizeable chunk of it's Countrymen. London with it's higher Density of People has shown how quickly and easily it can spread without adequate action and protection.

Wait until the end of this Week and the end of the initial mass Incubation and the numbers will probably rocket. Week 2 of Lock Down in Spain and we're told this Week will be the worst Nationally with a Spike expected.

Personally, I'd use the Comparisons as a Tool to judge how things can go wrong so quickly if we dont act. I'd rather not see it as a competition. Don't use it as an excuse to think you're safe and going to carry on as normal.

Lets hope the Lock Down works and we never reach the Italian levels. Your best Comparison is against how it was Yesterday, that's how bad it can get.

Re people going to the countryside etc it was only a few days ago that we were told there was no major risk to people attending football matches.

Which demonstrates just how quickly things change. Before the mass run to the Countryside and Beach I believe they were told (advised) to stay at home ? It came after my Mid 80s Year Old Mum was told to stay in for 12 Weeks. No excuses.
 

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mervyn":7n4atx2r said:
See Prince Charles is top of the news. What utter boll###!

Well, I do sincerely wish him well but I do wonder if any Doctor that attends him will have limited access to ventilators and have to decide that any ventilator available should go to a younger fitter person with greater chances of survival!!
Hope he can get a hospital bed if he needs one!
You gotta love a democracy!! :whistle: