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Predict Bottom 4
Poll runs till Tue Apr 16, 2019 8:21 am
Argyle
Accrington
Bradford
Bristol R
Gillingham
Oxford
Rochdale
Scunthorpe
Shrewsbury
Southend
Walsall
Wimbledon
Wycombe
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 Post subject: Re: POLL - Predictions- bottom 4
PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 1:27 pm 

Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2008 8:16 pm
Location: Plymouth
I would say Argyle need six more points to be comfortably safe.


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 Post subject: Re: POLL - Predictions- bottom 4
PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 4:44 pm 

Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2016 1:04 pm
9 points to make sure.I think even Adams said as much last week.


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 Post subject: Re: POLL - Predictions- bottom 4
PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 5:36 pm 
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I was worried about WW's last home game still having 10 minutes to play after all the other results are 'in' :furious: so I googled their fixtures.
Last 5 games: Southend, Rochdale, Walsall, AFC Wombledown, Fleetwood.
So, they have quite a run in! Could be in deep doo doo if they lose many of them.
Could obviously have a big say in who else goes/stays dependent on their performances! :think:


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 Post subject: Re: Predictions- bottom 4
PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:36 pm 

Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2016 8:51 am
Lundan Cabbie wrote:
Knibbsworth wrote:
Lundan, did I hear you get a mention on Talksport on Friday?


Somebody else asked that too. I do tweet in now and then but didn't hear any mention myself.


It was relating to the shape of corner spots or something. Adrian Durham read your tweet out correcting him.


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 Post subject: Re: POLL - Predictions- bottom 4
PostPosted: Sun Mar 17, 2019 11:51 pm 

Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:38 pm
Location: London
Southend have really tanked as have Wycombe (fingers crossed) so it could be either of those. Looking at the table, I'm more nervous than I was a week ago. We cannot afford to have another bad run-in.


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 Post subject: Re: Predictions- bottom 4
PostPosted: Mon Mar 18, 2019 9:01 am 

Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2008 8:16 pm
Location: Plymouth
Knibbsworth wrote:
Lundan Cabbie wrote:
Knibbsworth wrote:
Lundan, did I hear you get a mention on Talksport on Friday?


Somebody else asked that too. I do tweet in now and then but didn't hear any mention myself.


It was relating to the shape of corner spots or something. Adrian Durham read your tweet out correcting him.


:thumbs:


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 Post subject: Re: POLL - Predictions- bottom 4
PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 1:15 am 
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Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2006 11:05 am
Out of all the teams in the bottom 13 we have the most difficult run in of everyone.

Scunthorpe, Wycombe, Gillingham and Wimbledon all face pretty easy run ins with teams which are generally in the bottom half of the table. Getting the points to stay up should be much easier for them. Wimbledon have of course drifted but they could well come back with the easier run in - apart from Luton all their other matches are in the lower half of the table and their form has been improved of late. Wycombe have had a terrible set of results so they could drift down even against lower opposition but somehow I cant see it.

Scunthorpe 126 - av position of opposition 16th
Wycombe 124 - av position of opposition 15th
Gillingham 121 - av position of opposition 15th
Wimbledon 119 - av position of opposition 15th

Even Stanley, Southend, Shrewsbury and Walsall have a bias towards bottom half teams so they have better than average run ins.

Stanley 113 - av position of opposition 11th but two games in hand
Southend 108- av position of opposition 13th
Shrewsbury 106 - av position of opposition 13th
Walsall 104 - av position of opposition 13th

Then Oxford, Bradford and Rochdale all have average run ins with teams from the top and bottom of the division. Rochdale and Bradford don't have the points which will work against them.

Oxford 93 - - av position of opposition 11th
Bradford 92 - av position of opposition 11th
Rochdale 90 - av position of opposition 11th

It is only Rovers and Argyle who you could say have a bias towards hard teams. Rovers more so but they have an extra game in hand

Rovers 85 - - av position of opposition 9th but 1 more game in hand
Argyle 83 - - av position of opposition 10th

Taking all this together and the points difference it would be a good judgement to say Rovers and Argyle could be over valued to stay up and should be in the relegation mix in May despite their recent form. A result on Saturday for either team could well be the decider - a draw is probably not enough as they will both need to get points in the bag before a nightmare run of fixtures in April. We are playing Barnsley looking to seal their automatic promotion place in a tight race over Sunderland, and also Charlton and Doncaster who will be fighting for a play off place. Rovers have to face Luton, Barnsley, Doncaster and Coventry.

Bradford and Rochdale are both doomed I think while Stanley, Scunthorpe, Wycombe and Gillingham are pretty much ok. I still think Southend, Shrewsbury and Walsall have substantially easier run ins so if I was one of their fans I would not be worried

Oxford could be in the mix as they have to face Luton, Coventry, Charlton and Doncaster .

So for me its:

Two from Argyle, Rovers or Oxford - with perhaps it being decided on Saturday as outside of that those teams don't face each other again so its a massive six pointer. With four very difficult games to follow you would want to be at least 6 points clear of the relegation zone going into April.

Then

Bradford - doomed
Rochdale - doomed

A quick eye on the betting: Bet against Wimbledon to go down - they are heavy favourites to do that atm and don't justify it. Argyle, Oxford and Rovers are all near 7-1 so bet on all three. One of them will almost certainly go down.


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 Post subject: Re: POLL - Predictions- bottom 4
PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 5:34 am 
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Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 9:15 pm
Location: The Janner Nation!!
Cheers Dave, I’m nervous enough as it is? I don’t like the feeling of this run in I must admit!

I also have a feeling that a certain Mr Sercombe is going to be a pain in the arse on Saturday as well.

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 Post subject: Re: POLL - Predictions- bottom 4
PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 11:17 am 

Joined: Wed May 03, 2017 9:46 pm
I’m really not sure there is such thing as an ‘easier run-in’ at this stage of the season, it’s all about strength of character and grinding out results. Something which Argyle have been pretty good at lately, particular at home.


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 Post subject: Re: POLL - Predictions- bottom 4
PostPosted: Tue Mar 19, 2019 11:32 am 
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Summary:

After 281.75 votes

82% Rochdale
80% Bradford
60% Wimbledon
44% Walsall
40% Southend
24% Wycombe
20% Shrewsbury
16% bar

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 Post subject: Re: POLL - Predictions- bottom 4
PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:30 am 
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Just filled the predictor out with my green and white bobble hat and scarf on and wearing my green tint shades and I have Argyle finishing a comfortable 13th with 54 points.
No worries!!


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 Post subject: Re: POLL - Predictions- bottom 4
PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2019 9:42 am 

Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2018 7:33 pm
Personally I don’t see a teams league position as determining whether it’s a hard game or not.. the fact that from 12th to 24th are fighting for their lives might give them more motivation than a team say comfortably in the playoffs but too far from the top 2 , like a Charlton..

I think if we beat Rovers on Saturday I’d be very confident that we’ll stay up.


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 Post subject: Re: POLL - Predictions- bottom 4
PostPosted: Wed Mar 20, 2019 5:54 pm 

Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2006 7:20 pm
JannerinCardiff wrote:
Personally I don’t see a teams league position as determining whether it’s a hard game or not.. the fact that from 12th to 24th are fighting for their lives might give them more motivation than a team say comfortably in the playoffs but too far from the top 2 , like a Charlton..

I think if we beat Rovers on Saturday I’d be very confident that we’ll stay up.


And if we dont you wont be? I dont see us beating them.


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