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 Post subject: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:00 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:52 am
Location: Raleigh, North Carolina
I can't believe I'm doing this as a 47 year old who should be working (I can), but I've decided to try and use a stupid method. That method takes into account the form home and away, 6 pointers , if a relegation fighter is playing and gave Argyle a special handicap.

Thought with the games tonight it would be a good test as to whether I bother to update :oops:

6 Pointers
___________

Difference in form based on form over 8 matches home/away
6 pointers games are going to be tighter affairs. I've decided that the chance for winning requires a higher difference in form.
Argyle get a -3 Handicap just because
+/- < 5 LOSS
+/- > 4 < 12 DRAW
+/1 > 12 WIN

..................Home Form...........Away Form.....Diff.........Predict.....Points
Scunthorpe........24.... Peterborough.....17.......-7...........DR.......SCUN +1 PETEB+1
Portsmouth........18.... Peterborough.....17.......+1..........AW...... PORT+3
Shrewsbury........3..... Charlton............8.........+5..........DR.......SHREW+1 CHAR+1 WRONG
Portsmouth........14.... Charlton............8.........-6...........DR.......PORT+1 CHAR+1WRONG
Argyle...............1......Rotherham........ 9.........+8(+5)....DR.......ARGYLE+1 ROTHER+1
Scunthorpe........24.... Argyle...............5.........-19(-15)..AW.......ARGYLE+3

Other Matches
____________
Difference in Form
Argyle get a -3 Handicap just because
Teams Fighting relegation gets a oddly random +8 BONUS
+/- < 6 LOSS
+/- > 5 < 10 DRAW
+/1 > 9 WIN
YES= vs. relegation fighting team

..............Home Form...........Away Form.....Diff.............Predict.....Points
Bradford........20.......Portsmouth.....6.........+14..............AW.......PORT+3 WRONG
Gillingham.....14.......Rotherham......9.........+5................HW WRONG
Blackburn......3.........Peterborough...17......-14...............HWRIGHT
Northampton..21.......Argyle.............5........-16(-8)YES....DR........ARGYLE+1WRONG
Rotherham.....2.........Bristol Rovers..10......+8................DR........ROTH+1RIGHT
Scunthorpe.....24.......Walsall............18.......-6(-1)YES.....AWWRONG
Shrewsbury....3.........Bury...............23.......+20..............HW........SHREW+3
Rochdale........23.......Argyle.............1.........+18(+7)YES..DR........ARGYLE+1
Blackpool.......5.........Shrewsbury......2........+3................HW
Bury..............19.......Portsmouth.......6........-13...............AW....... PORT+3
Charlton........13 .......Blackburn.........1........-12...............AW
MK Dons........22.......Scunthorpe.......7........-15(-7)YES....DR........SCUN+1
Peterborough.11 ........Fleetwood........12...... +1................DR
Gillingham.....14........Argyle..............5........+9(+6).........DR........ARGYLE+1
Rochdale.......23........Charlton...........8........+15(-10)YES.AW.......CHAR+3
Rotherham....2..........Blackpool.........15...... +13..............HW........ROTH+3
Scunthorpe....24........Bradford..........24...... 0..................HW
Shrewsbury...3..........MK Dons..........21...... +18..............HW....... SHREW+3

Total Points Taken
_______________
Shrewsbury.......4
Rotherham........ 2
Argyle...............6
Portsmouth........10
Scunthorpe........2
Peterborough.....4
Charlton............5

Added to Current/Final
________________________
Shrewsbury.......82+4.......86
Portsmouth........63+10.....73
Rotherham........ 70+2.......72
Argyle...............64+6.......70 (thanks OG)
________________________
Charlton............62+5 .......67
Scunthorpe........64+2.......66
Peterborough.....61+4.......65

Hope that wasn't as ugly as I think it looks.. :scarf:


Last edited by CarolinaGreen on Sat Apr 21, 2018 5:15 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:05 pm 
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Got to be honest, I skipped to the bottom to see if we were in or out. We're in :scarf:


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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:06 pm 
Site Admin, Player Sponsor #1 18/19 and Player Sponsor #2 18/19
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Argyle...............64+6.......72 Is this new maths?? Must be Yankee maths.


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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 3:21 pm 

Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2009 10:24 am
If I've read it right, we get a win and 4 draws - 7 points!


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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:39 pm 
Auction Winner, Player Sponsor #1 18/19, Player Sponsor #2 18/19, PALFC Sponsor #1 18/19 and PALFC Sponsor #2 18/19

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Seems like total bo**ox to me...


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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:42 pm 
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Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 11:54 am
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I didn’t understand it but I like the final conclusion and that is enough for me. Good system.

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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:44 pm 
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Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 11:54 am
Location: Southampton
Does this system also predict an Argyle v Pompey final, and an Argyle promotion?

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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 4:53 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:52 am
Location: Raleigh, North Carolina
Ottawa Green wrote:
Argyle...............64+6.......72 Is this new maths?? Must be Yankee maths.



:cool: Didn't you know? Everything is fake news over here, including math.


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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:00 pm 
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It's 'maths' - this is an English site. :greensmile:

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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:07 pm 
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Southampton Green wrote:
Does this system also predict an Argyle v Pompey final, and an Argyle promotion?


This is a great question.. let me see..

Shrews would beat Argyle... :thumbdown:
Portsmouth beat Rotherham :thumbdown:

Shrews beat Portsmouth:clap:


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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:07 pm 
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IJN wrote:
It's 'maths' - this is an English site. :greensmile:


Yeah I've been here way too long.. :banghead:


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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:08 pm 
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Leo's Grandad wrote:
Seems like total bo**ox to me...


Yeah, I'm pretty sure it is. Still, gives me something to do at work.


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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:10 pm 
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IJN wrote:
It's 'maths' - this is an English site. :greensmile:

CarolinaGreen might apologize but that would only color the debate. This topic has turned the fawcett on promotion speculation.

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