CarolinaGreen Predictor

I can't believe I'm doing this as a 47 year old who should be working (I can), but I've decided to try and use a stupid method. That method takes into account the form home and away, 6 pointers , if a relegation fighter is playing and gave Argyle a special handicap.

Thought with the games tonight it would be a good test as to whether I bother to update

6 Pointers
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Difference in form based on form over 8 matches home/away
6 pointers games are going to be tighter affairs. I've decided that the chance for winning requires a higher difference in form.
Argyle get a -3 Handicap just because
+/- < 5 LOSS
+/- > 4 < 12 DRAW
+/1 > 12 WIN

..................Home Form...........Away Form.....Diff.........Predict.....Points
Scunthorpe........24.... Peterborough.....17.......-7...........DR.......SCUN +1 PETEB+1
Portsmouth........18.... Peterborough.....17.......+1..........AW...... PORT+3
Shrewsbury........3..... Charlton............8.........+5..........DR.......SHREW+1 CHAR+1 WRONG
Portsmouth........14.... Charlton............8.........-6...........DR.......PORT+1 CHAR+1WRONG
Argyle...............1......Rotherham........ 9.........+8(+5)....DR.......ARGYLE+1 ROTHER+1
Scunthorpe........24.... Argyle...............5.........-19(-15)..AW.......ARGYLE+3

Other Matches
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Difference in Form
Argyle get a -3 Handicap just because
Teams Fighting Relegation gets a oddly random +8 BONUS
+/- < 6 LOSS
+/- > 5 < 10 DRAW
+/1 > 9 WIN
YES= vs. Relegation fighting team

..............Home Form...........Away Form.....Diff.............Predict.....Points
Bradford........20.......Portsmouth.....6.........+14..............AW.......PORT+3 WRONG
Gillingham.....14.......Rotherham......9.........+5................HW WRONG
Blackburn......3.........Peterborough...17......-14...............HWRIGHT
Northampton..21.......Argyle.............5........-16(-8)YES....DR........ARGYLE+1WRONG
Rotherham.....2.........Bristol Rovers..10......+8................DR........ROTH+1RIGHT
Scunthorpe.....24.......Walsall............18.......-6(-1)YES.....AWWRONG
Shrewsbury....3.........Bury...............23.......+20..............HW........SHREW+3
Rochdale........23.......Argyle.............1.........+18(+7)YES..DR........ARGYLE+1
Blackpool.......5.........Shrewsbury......2........+3................HW
Bury..............19.......Portsmouth.......6........-13...............AW....... PORT+3
Charlton........13 .......Blackburn.........1........-12...............AW
MK Dons........22.......Scunthorpe.......7........-15(-7)YES....DR........SCUN+1
Peterborough.11 ........Fleetwood........12...... +1................DR
Gillingham.....14........Argyle..............5........+9(+6).........DR........ARGYLE+1
Rochdale.......23........Charlton...........8........+15(-10)YES.AW.......CHAR+3
Rotherham....2..........Blackpool.........15...... +13..............HW........ROTH+3
Scunthorpe....24........Bradford..........24...... 0..................HW
Shrewsbury...3..........MK Dons..........21...... +18..............HW....... SHREW+3

Total Points Taken
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Shrewsbury.......4
Rotherham........ 2
Argyle...............6
Portsmouth........10
Scunthorpe........2
Peterborough.....4
Charlton............5

Added to Current/Final
________________________
Shrewsbury.......82+4.......86
Portsmouth........63+10.....73
Rotherham........ 70+2.......72
Argyle...............64+6.......70 (thanks OG)
________________________
Charlton............62+5 .......67
Scunthorpe........64+2.......66
Peterborough.....61+4.......65

Hope that wasn't as ugly as I think it looks.. :scarf:

Ottawa Green":tqqzdxvl said:

Argyle...............64+6.......72 Is this new maths?? Must be Yankee maths.

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Didn't you know? Everything is fake news over here, including math.

Southampton Green":9m6rfd33 said:

Does this system also predict an Argyle v Pompey final, and an Argyle promotion?

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This is a great question.. let me see..

Shrews would beat Argyle... :thumbdown:
Portsmouth beat Rotherham :thumbdown:

Shrews beat Portsmouth:clap:

IJN":3vdx4c9j said:

It's 'maths' - this is an English site. :greensmile:

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Yeah I've been here way too long.. :banghead:

Leo's Grandad":205eb14u said:

Seems like total bo**ox to me...

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Yeah, I'm pretty sure it is. Still, gives me something to do at work.

Southampton Green":2o0kab70 said:

CarolinaGreen":2o0kab70 said:

Southampton Green":2o0kab70 said:

Does this system also predict an Argyle v Pompey final, and an Argyle promotion?

Click to expand...

This is a great question.. let me see..

Shrews would beat Argyle... :thumbdown:
Portsmouth beat Rotherham :thumbdown:

Shrews beat Portsmouth:clap:

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Is that based on the higher placed team winning the semi-final as it doesn’t work like that? I can see us doing Shrewsbury over two legs by a good couple of goals.

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This doesn't work for goals scored. Isn't it 3rd vs 6th and 4th vs 5th?

Round 1, Argyle vs Shrews, Shrews away form is 2nd, Argyle home form is 1st. The difference is 1 + Argyle's handicap of 3, and the difference is 4 in Shrews favor. It's very likely a draw, but could go any way with a single goal. My stupid predictor say a loss for Argyle though.

Round 2, Shrews vs Argyle, Argyle's away form is 5th, Shrews home form is 3rd. The difference is 2 + handicap of 3 for 5 in Shrews favor. Predictor actually has that as a draw. So very close again.