Odds at the beginning of the season

Someone please educate me. At this stage of the season do these odds reflect bookies’ opinion or bets placed so far?

mervyn":2bvwthes said:

Someone please educate me. At this stage of the season do these odds reflect bookies’ opinion or bets placed so far?

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Both. The traders will have initially put together an order but the amounts placed on teams by people will have had an impact on that.

Why anyone would even look at these odds right now is beyond me, maybe a knock on from that freak run when we were very long shots and people didn't know when or if to cash out?
When we get to December I would have a look, by then the avid punter will have seen the lay of the land and the odds will be more accurate.
9/4 now based on what exactly?
I suggest leaving well alone and enjoy the ride.

I do an accumulator bet each season for them to win the league but I do it each way. This season have done it with man city Sunderland and torquay. If I get the each way component in pays 1500 or if they all win gives nearly 6000. Yes realise very little chance but I tend to follow the results of the teams i have selected throughout the season

Just a quick guide to anyone putting on these sorts of bets:

You are looking for value. What this means is that you are looking for odds that you think are wrong in terms of the chances of this team achieving promotion. Your not looking for what teams you feel will do well.

Generally speaking teams with large fan bases have odds that are way too short. This is because people like to back their own teams for promotion. So if you look at the fan bases you will often find those teams which don't represent good value. Don't back them. Don't back Argyle they have by far the largest fan base.

Certain teams are emotionally disliked by fans so the fans tend to bet against them for no other reason than they don't like them. Who don't you like? Are they rivals against a big team? Back them for promotion as their odds are probably good. Back Exeter.

Certain teams are emotionally liked by everyone - often because they are famous. Salford are likeable, people will back them. So their odds will be poor.

At this stage of the season the odds are really all over the place - no one really knows who can beat who and who has got it together. If you are going to back a decent team wait to see if any of them start poorly then back them.

When looking at odds look at a page like this:

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/en ... e-2/winner

This tells you the odds for all bookies and gives you an idea of how the whole market is looking.

Then look at stuff from this page:

https://www.sportsmole.co.uk/football/l ... o/2018-19/

This tells you about the teams form.

My tips would be at the moment:

Stevenage - great form at the end of last season, won nearly all their last 6 games, not sexy 40-1
Newport - great manager, great form got to the payoffs. Small fan base. not sexy.. 26-1
Forest Green - great form again and were involved in last season's playoffs. Small fan base. Not sexy. 17-1

Out for the current top six teams the only one I would consider at the moment is Mansfield at 10-1 but those odds arnt worth it.

Argylegames":55kw1s1h said:

dgaddy":55kw1s1h said:

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:whoosh:

Best bet? Keep your money in your pocket.

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What’s the odds for that one?

dgaddy":3mgk94ow said:

Certain teams are emotionally liked by everyone - often because they are famous. Salford are likeable, people will back them. So their odds will be poor.

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Where did you get that from? Possibly the team i want us to beat most next season.

Action Jackson":35gv2dlq said:

dgaddy":35gv2dlq said:

Certain teams are emotionally liked by everyone - often because they are famous. Salford are likeable, people will back them. So their odds will be poor.

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Where did you get that from? Possibly the team i want us to beat most next season.

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Cos they sound a bit like Man U, a well known purveyor of children's wear. wallpaper, fat bloke t-shirts and duvet covers in the SW of England!

Action Jackson":zws32qp7 said:

dgaddy":zws32qp7 said:

Certain teams are emotionally liked by everyone - often because they are famous. Salford are likeable, people will back them. So their odds will be poor.

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Where did you get that from? Possibly the team i want us to beat most next season.

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I think he's right. I was volunteering at Gateshead last season and Salford was one of the biggest attendances of the season. It certainly wasn't because Salford had brought a lot of fans, they didn't. The interest in them in the North East was high enough to basically double the usual attendance (and it was on a Tuesday night!). The visit to Salford was enjoyable too. There are good people involved behind the scenes there. They've got a really good fanzone behind the goal at the home end, they're keeping football affordable, at £10 adults, £5 concessions they are the cheapest club in the league by some way. Yes, they've got rich owners, but they don't have to do that. Other clubs who have come up with rich owners in the past certainly haven't.

That said, despite the fact I think they're a likeable club (from my experiences) they are also one of the teams I want us to beat most next season, but that is because I'd expect them to be challenging near the top and I'd like to think we will be too.