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The price of relegation

JannerinCardiff

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Ok so firstly don’t berate me as my figures are only guesswork but I don’t think they would be that far away from some semblance of reality.

I don’t think that DA gets paid what our best player gets paid, but nor would he get a low salary given his head of everything role. So for a complete pie in the sky figure I reckon DA earns about 4K a week. For arguement sake let’s call it 200k a year for easy maths.

I’ve seen it many times that when a manager gets sacked and takes a pay off that it’s not the full length if contract. DA has 4 and a half years left on his contract but if this was reduced to a pay off of 3 years his pay off would be ~600k.

If we lost 2,000 fans on average because of relegation, at an estimated £16 per ticket it would be an annual loss of 736k and that doesn’t include losses from other commercial, hospitality , catering and merchandise, I’d take a guess that relation would cost us about a million quid.

I know my figures are pie in the sky so please don’t have a go but generally speaking it’s a difficult decision to keep or sack Derek Adams on a purely financial perspective.

At some point in time finances will dictate the decisions that might have to be made.
 

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I know that football is a crazy money business but Derek Adams shouldn’t be earning £200k per year (I realize that you figure is a guess).
I would have thought that hardly anyone in Plymouth earns that much.
 
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Historically, Argyle performing top 5/6 of league 2 will attract higher gates than when bottom half of league 1
 
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Ballpark figure Adams would be on more like 2k a week.
Nobody gets anywhere near 4k.
Re revenue in L2. Depends on performances. If we were winning we'd get similar to what we get now.
 

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You're right JIC, it's all pie in the sky.
 

JannerinCardiff

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Keepitgreen":2zqe6z6e said:
You're right JIC, it's all pie in the sky.

I know. But what I’m suggesting is that there will come a point when a decision needs to be made not because of the heart, but the head and that will be backed up by numbers.

I don’t know peoples salaries or what it would take to pay off someone’s contract but I’m sure those with money to lose must be thinking about the financial implications of relegation (particularly with the new grandstand being built).
 
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It can't be a purely financial decision. Money won't be the sole reason that we're bottom of the league. I think relegation would be more of reputational disaster than a financial one, assuming that player contracts have relegation clauses built in. If they don't the better players would likely leave anyway.
 

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JannerinCardiff":23g8akjs said:
Keepitgreen":23g8akjs said:
You're right JIC, it's all pie in the sky.

I know. But what I’m suggesting is that there will come a point when a decision needs to be made not because of the heart, but the head and that will be backed up by numbers.

I don’t know peoples salaries or what it would take to pay off someone’s contract but I’m sure those with money to lose must be thinking about the financial implications of relegation (particularly with the new grandstand being built).

Or perhaps they think an upper end of the table league 2 team will bring in more money than a middling league 1 team, whilst the championship would cost them too much?
 
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Thanks for crunching the numbers JC, even if they are conjecture, they make interesting reading. The 'real' numbers will be known by the Board, and they SHOULD be doing a similar calculation right now, if they haven't already done so.

The bit that really worries me is what FBD says: "Argyle performing top 5/6 of league 2 will attract higher gates than when bottom half of league 1."

Therefore, no 'hit' to gate revenues (other than cheaper tickets for Div4 standard of football?) and no case for the Board to review - financially, relegation is a 'no risk' option.

I must point out this is NOT what I think, but we're trying to second guess the Board here, and their silence speaks volumes at the moment.
 
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On current form we would not be top 5/6 in league two, we would be near the bottom of that league too - without change we will be looking at losing league status which would be a disaster for all concerned.

I actually think the silence from the board indicates that discussions re Adams future are taking place either with him, or at least internally. If they had decided to stick with him come what may they would have said so rather than maintaining silence.
 

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All these figures are assuming two things...

Derek Adams staying = relegation.

Changing manager = survival.

Not as simple as that, changing manager is a massive gamble and we could just spiral further into instability that's already there with the boardroom and grandstand disruption. Especially as a new manager will want to change the squad in January, which costs money. We could very easily have a three-pronged nightmare scenario of paying off Adam's contract, being relegated AND having League 1 wages on our hands from gambling in the January transfer window.
 

Mark Pedlar

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Not a massive gamble at all - Adams staying = going down, Changing Manager = can't be any worse.