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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:13 pm 
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Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 11:54 am
Location: Southampton
CarolinaGreen wrote:
Southampton Green wrote:
Does this system also predict an Argyle v Pompey final, and an Argyle promotion?


This is a great question.. let me see..

Shrews would beat Argyle... :thumbdown:
Portsmouth beat Rotherham :thumbdown:

Shrews beat Portsmouth:clap:

Is that based on the higher placed team winning the semi-final as it doesn’t work like that? I can see us doing Shrewsbury over two legs by a good couple of goals.

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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:28 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:52 am
Location: Raleigh, North Carolina
Southampton Green wrote:
CarolinaGreen wrote:
Southampton Green wrote:
Does this system also predict an Argyle v Pompey final, and an Argyle promotion?


This is a great question.. let me see..

Shrews would beat Argyle... :thumbdown:
Portsmouth beat Rotherham :thumbdown:

Shrews beat Portsmouth:clap:

Is that based on the higher placed team winning the semi-final as it doesn’t work like that? I can see us doing Shrewsbury over two legs by a good couple of goals.


This doesn't work for goals scored. Isn't it 3rd vs 6th and 4th vs 5th?

Round 1, Argyle vs Shrews, Shrews away form is 2nd, Argyle home form is 1st. The difference is 1 + Argyle's handicap of 3, and the difference is 4 in Shrews favor. It's very likely a draw, but could go any way with a single goal. My stupid predictor say a loss for Argyle though.

Round 2, Shrews vs Argyle, Argyle's away form is 5th, Shrews home form is 3rd. The difference is 2 + handicap of 3 for 5 in Shrews favor. Predictor actually has that as a draw. So very close again.


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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:43 pm 
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Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 11:54 am
Location: Southampton
CarolinaGreen wrote:
Southampton Green wrote:
CarolinaGreen wrote:
Southampton Green wrote:
Does this system also predict an Argyle v Pompey final, and an Argyle promotion?


This is a great question.. let me see..

Shrews would beat Argyle... :thumbdown:
Portsmouth beat Rotherham :thumbdown:

Shrews beat Portsmouth:clap:

Is that based on the higher placed team winning the semi-final as it doesn’t work like that? I can see us doing Shrewsbury over two legs by a good couple of goals.


This doesn't work for goals scored. Isn't it 3rd vs 6th and 4th vs 5th?

Round 1, Argyle vs Shrews, Shrews away form is 2nd, Argyle home form is 1st. The difference is 1 + Argyle's handicap of 3, and the difference is 4 in Shrews favor. It's very likely a draw, but could go any way with a single goal. My stupid predictor say a loss for Argyle though.

Round 2, Shrews vs Argyle, Argyle's away form is 5th, Shrews home form is 3rd. The difference is 2 + handicap of 3 for 5 in Shrews favor. Predictor actually has that as a draw. So very close again.

Why exactly do we always have a negative handicap?

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Who would true valour see, let him come hither; one here will constant be, come wind, come weather. There's no discouragement shall make him once relent his first avowed intent, to be a Pilgrim.


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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:51 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jun 10, 2006 11:52 am
Location: Raleigh, North Carolina
Southampton Green wrote:
CarolinaGreen wrote:
Southampton Green wrote:
CarolinaGreen wrote:
Southampton Green wrote:
Does this system also predict an Argyle v Pompey final, and an Argyle promotion?


This is a great question.. let me see..

Shrews would beat Argyle... :thumbdown:
Portsmouth beat Rotherham :thumbdown:

Shrews beat Portsmouth:clap:

Is that based on the higher placed team winning the semi-final as it doesn’t work like that? I can see us doing Shrewsbury over two legs by a good couple of goals.


This doesn't work for goals scored. Isn't it 3rd vs 6th and 4th vs 5th?

Round 1, Argyle vs Shrews, Shrews away form is 2nd, Argyle home form is 1st. The difference is 1 + Argyle's handicap of 3, and the difference is 4 in Shrews favor. It's very likely a draw, but could go any way with a single goal. My stupid predictor say a loss for Argyle though.

Round 2, Shrews vs Argyle, Argyle's away form is 5th, Shrews home form is 3rd. The difference is 2 + handicap of 3 for 5 in Shrews favor. Predictor actually has that as a draw. So very close again.

Why exactly do we always have a negative handicap?


Because it's Argyle, and I'm adding in my natural pessimism. :think: In my first go out, I had Argyle winning all 5, so I knew something was wrong :wtf:


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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2018 5:59 pm 
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Joined: Tue Mar 01, 2005 11:54 am
Location: Southampton
CarolinaGreen wrote:
Southampton Green wrote:
CarolinaGreen wrote:
Southampton Green wrote:
CarolinaGreen wrote:
Southampton Green wrote:
Does this system also predict an Argyle v Pompey final, and an Argyle promotion?


This is a great question.. let me see..

Shrews would beat Argyle... :thumbdown:
Portsmouth beat Rotherham :thumbdown:

Shrews beat Portsmouth:clap:

Is that based on the higher placed team winning the semi-final as it doesn’t work like that? I can see us doing Shrewsbury over two legs by a good couple of goals.


This doesn't work for goals scored. Isn't it 3rd vs 6th and 4th vs 5th?

Round 1, Argyle vs Shrews, Shrews away form is 2nd, Argyle home form is 1st. The difference is 1 + Argyle's handicap of 3, and the difference is 4 in Shrews favor. It's very likely a draw, but could go any way with a single goal. My stupid predictor say a loss for Argyle though.

Round 2, Shrews vs Argyle, Argyle's away form is 5th, Shrews home form is 3rd. The difference is 2 + handicap of 3 for 5 in Shrews favor. Predictor actually has that as a draw. So very close again.

Why exactly do we always have a negative handicap?


Because it's Argyle, and I'm adding in my natural pessimism. :think: In my first go out, I had Argyle winning all 5, so I knew something was wrong :wtf:

You could always work it backwards and see how accurate your predictor has been to our recent games and then work out an accuracy handicap from there. Might be more accurate then instead of a pessimistic -3 on everything, particularly if you don’t want to do any work at work today

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Who would true valour see, let him come hither; one here will constant be, come wind, come weather. There's no discouragement shall make him once relent his first avowed intent, to be a Pilgrim.


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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 4:34 am 
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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 6:36 am 

Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:43 pm
I know of an infallible way of working it out, so much easier.
Each team plays the others home and away....after 46 games you have a result that is always fool proof.
It's called the EFL Div 1 2017/18 competition.....so much easier to follow....the frustrating part is it takes 9 months to work out.


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 Post subject: Re: CarolinaGreen Predictor
PostPosted: Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:56 am 

Joined: Tue Oct 20, 2015 11:58 am
I like the Carolina Predictor, it's a bit of fun, and something for me to muse on while I'm at work and not working. As a fellow pessimist I'm fully in favo(u)r of the 'Argyle Handicap'. "Because it's Argyle" is all the reason I need.


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