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One Game at a Time

pafcprogs

🌟 Pasoti Laureate 🌟
Apr 3, 2008
1,128
2,579
Westerham Kent
Yes thats an excellent mantra for the manager and the team but as fans we are allowed to drift away and speculate and postulate....

Since I was up early today checking if it was a school snow day ( it is) I found myself browsing the fixtures of the teams around us and noting some interesting factors which may make the run in more interesting...some good, some not so

So assuming 75 points gets sixth the simplest way of getting there is to win games so we need seven wins and a draw...so can afford to lose three more games as long as we don't draw loads. It is a big ask...but it isn't impossible so lets assume we at least give ourselves a fighting chance of doing so....

On that basis our main rivals ( sorry Gillingham, Bristol and Southend) need the following

Peterborough (PU) 8 wins and a draw...can afford three defeats
Charlton (C) 8 wins could afford five defeats!
Scunthorpe (S) Six wins Could afford five defeats!
Bradford (BC) 8 wins and a draw Can afford three defeats
Portsmouth (PO) 9 wins or eight wins and two draws Two more defeats only or it's been a season of consolidation
Rotherham (R) 4 wins and a draw Can afford 8 defeats

It is possible Gillingham Bristol Rovers or Southend could gallop into the reckoning but I had to draw the line somewhere.

Assuming 1 2 and 3 are Wigan (W) Blackburn (BR) and Shrewsbury (SH) three of the these six and us will make the Play off picture complete and these top three are so far away from us that even if they melt we probably won't catch them so it is academic for us

Rotherham too on their run look like they will also make it comfortably so it is two from six.

So games between the above mean (duh!) points can't go to both

PA play SC, CA, PU, PO and R

PU play SH, CA, R, BR and PO plus PA of course
C play PU, PA, R, SC, SH,PO, and BR
SC play W,SH, PA C, and BC
BC play PO, W, BR, SH,and SC
PO play BC, W, PA, CA and PU
R play PU, CA, W, and PA

I haven't distinguished between home and away as at this stage I think it is academic, the main issue is it defines who keeps momentum

Of the run ins the following may be significant.

Rotherham have their next four games where the highest placed team they face is Gillingham meaning if they win all four they could be effectively in the play offs before they get to Peterborough Charlton and us

Bradfords next three games are at home followed by a derby at Doncaster Rovers so a decent run could haul them back in

By contrast Charlton have three consecutive away games including at Peterborough followed by Fleetwood at home ( then us)

Scunthorpe have Wigan and Shrewsbury in their next three games

Our Achilles heel in the fixture list is that we get to play all of our major rivals whilst they should still have a belief that they can get into the play offs...there are no dead rubbers (unless Pompey do badly over the next few games). We also have the potentially worst final two games in Rotherham and Gillingham. We do however ( and the weather may alter all of this ) have a decent run of fixtures in March with only Charlton to play from our rivals.

The teams we need to maintain form are Shrewsbury and Rotherham as they can seriously damage Peterborough Charlton and Scunthorpe. Of the rivals the one who we can probably afford to maintain some form are Charlton as they have a tougher end with Rotherham Bristol Rovers, Scunthorpe Shrewsbury Portsmouth and Blackburn as six of their last seven, before ending at Rochdale.

If Scunthorpe don't beat Oldham this weekend they may have a serious wobble as their form is not great and the pack may well close up. Thats said they have a decent buffer and I think they will scrape into the play offs

Peterborough look to be the contenders to watch...new manager in Evans, Marriott and Madison backed up by Bogle and Morais and a decent keeper. It would be good is Shrewsbury and Charlton beat them or at least take points over the next two weekends. That said their overall form isn't wonderful and with Shrewsbury, Charlton, us Blackburn and Rotherham to play they should be losing three or four or ( even better) five games before the season end. If the form book for those fixtures holds up I think we can pip them.

Charlton look vulnerable, even without the injuries and international call ups so I would be happy for them to win at Peterborough as I think they will drop enough points ( especially to us I hope) that the final run in will be too tough if they need to play catch up.

Rotherham look a shoe in for play offs and might even threaten the automatics which at least keeps the others on their toes. Wigan fixture pile up would be a worry if they didn't have the squad they do.

Despite their doom and gloom Bradford have a decent run in and could still challenge so Play up Pompey this weekend ( or whenever) as I think the Boys in Blue have the hardest route and I can't see them doing another last day back door miracle...


One thing is for sure, when rivals play each other, draws are our friend....and anything taken from them by the teams in mid/low/relegation places are a total bonus

My Optimistic Final Placements

1) Wigan
2) Blackburn
3) Rotherham
4) Shrewsbury
5) Argyle
6) Scunthorpe
7) Peterborough
8) Bradford City
9) Charlton
10) Gillingham
!1) Portsmouth

But then of course this is football......

It is going to be emotional
 
Jan 7, 2016
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Kernow
A really interesting read but as you temper.... it's football.

When I apply 'my logic' I get the same top six and in the same order. So just maybe....

However, I don't think the sixth placed team will need as many as 75 points so perhaps we may only need 6 wins from here to the end of the season! Also, as I have stated elsewhere, I have this 'hunch' that Wigan might struggle with a congested fixture list and finish lower than logic dictates.

Whatever the outcome of the season, I am enjoying the journey. Whether we fade and end up in mid-table obscurity, valiantly lose in the playoffs, or defy the odds and gain promotion back to the Championship, I'm really excited about the future.

COYG
 

ChepstowGreen

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πŸ† Callum Wright 23/24
♣️ SWAG Member
Jade Berrow 23/24
May 1, 2006
1,381
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Yes great post, thanks. Come on Argyle. We've given ourselves a chance that's for sure.
 
Great post and enjoyable read - look forward to seeing how things unfold over the next couple of weeks to see where we stand going into the crunch games against Charlton, Scunthorpe, Peterborough and Pompey. I think it’s those 4 games that will decide whether we make it or not!
 

pafcprogs

🌟 Pasoti Laureate 🌟
Apr 3, 2008
1,128
2,579
Westerham Kent
Key fixtures this weekend:

Peterborough v Charlton ( draw ideal)
Pompey v Gillingham ( away win means they are both the same distance back so best for us)
Wigan v Scunthorpe ( Hopefully a home )banker.

Nervous about Saturday.....Sheridan and Diagouraga for the immutable law of the ex, Madden always seems to score goals against us wherever he is.....

Have a feeling it 's going to a long afternoon with Jeff and the panel waiting for the red away goal and scrappy 1-0 win (Lameiras or Sarcevic)
 
Sep 6, 2006
16,422
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pafcprogs":609sbx76 said:
Key fixtures this weekend:

Peterborough v Charlton ( draw ideal)
Pompey v Gillingham ( away win means they are both the same distance back so best for us)
Wigan v Scunthorpe ( Hopefully a home )banker.

Nervous about Saturday.....Sheridan and Diagouraga for the immutable law of the ex, Madden always seems to score goals against us wherever he is.....

Have a feeling it 's going to a long afternoon with Jeff and the panel waiting for the red away goal and scrappy 1-0 win (Lameiras or Sarcevic)

Agree Re Saturday. Will take a point which I think it will be. Lot of ifs and buts Re original post. Argyle poor goal difference could come into it. Thing about this League is anybody can beat anybody and often do so any team with consistency is rare.
 

pafcprogs

🌟 Pasoti Laureate 🌟
Apr 3, 2008
1,128
2,579
Westerham Kent
Interesting point re goal difference...

For Argyle it is only an issue with Peterborough and Scunthorpe, everyone else around its is similar....so could do with Will Grigg being on fore on Saturday to help move that...we can of course also help ourselves when we play those teams...as the impact is effectively doubled....how nice would a couple of 3-0 wins be in those two games...

Still lets get Saturday out o f the way....if the rumours re illness are true I wonder if we might see our West Ham loaneee in for his distribution skills...
 
Feb 8, 2005
4,273
2,366
Is our current position of 6th in the league a false one?

Yes.

Because we have played more games than some clubs below us.

You would expect those clubs in the top 11 to gain some sort of pointage in those games, dependent on who they are playing, of course.

Charlton have two games in hand and are only two points behind us, so they should probably be in the final play off place at the moment, had we all played the same number of games.

So our hype about being in the play-off places, although being true as it stands, is a little exaggerated.

However, with the momentum we have, there is every chance that we could get into the play-offs at the end of the season.

It's all about where we end up at the end of the season, not where we are part way through the season, whether it be at the bottom of the league or in the play-off positions, it's all about where we end up.

There is everything to play for this season, concentration like never before is required, and taking each game as it comes is an excellent way of not being sidetracked from our objective which is to get as many points as we can and to see where that takes us.

Injuries may take their toll, lady luck may take her part, but by golly it's going to be an exciting end to the current season.

Bring it on, one game at a time!!!
 

pafcprogs

🌟 Pasoti Laureate 🌟
Apr 3, 2008
1,128
2,579
Westerham Kent
So another week,another six pointer ( even though it's only three!)

All over the Gas forum they are calling this a must win game for them....having excluded them from the play off picture it cannot be denied that they will have a significant impact as they play us, Peterborough Blackburn Rotherham Wigan & Charlton. So expect them to go for it.....and given our current injury woes let's hope for a good performance....one win in their last four means they are hardly flying and I would expect us to bag a couple....so time for a big crowd to see us deliver....

As for the the rest so so far so predictable.....the Evans bounce at Peterborough means they have moved ahead of us damaging Charlton in the process...making our home game pretty tasty even before the managers handshake.....

Charlton and Bradford look wounded and if they drop points to Fleetwood and Doncaster (Monday Live on Sky!!!!) respectively then they start to look like they are out of the race.

The change of our ( and to an extent Rotherhams form until the last two games where they have hit the buffers big style) is probably best demonstrated by the choice of live fixtures from league 1 on Sky

Doncaster v Bradford followed by Pompey v Oxford (??) , Blackburn v Bradford and Oxford v Scunthorpe Pompey v Wigan then middle of April for Oxford v Shrewsbury...it is going to be intriguing to see how they make some of those fixtures look remotely relevant ....how the Bradford and Oxford mighty have fallen since they selected those pictures!

This week sees a few tasty ones apart from Us v Gas. Blackburn can damage Gillingham at Priestfield (Dack back on his old stomping ground) and Scunthorpe v Shrewsbury ( c'mon the Shrews).

The loss of points and struggles for late winners at the relegation haunted teams mean Rotherham at Northampton and Pompey at Oldham look tough fixtures. Anything Peterborough drop at Oxford will be a bonus.

So if we can win, I'd hope to be causing some serious wobbles to Scunthorpe, and if Rotherham go three on the bounce losses to relegation fodder they will also be panicking. Their next two away to Southend and home to Peterborough!

There isn't much in the midweeks...Bradford losing at Donny would be tidy for us and Wigan make up another of their games in hand but a loss would be useful so Shrewsbury don't give up the chase.....

Also suddenly no-one really wants to play Rochdale...and they are Scunthorpe next weekend :)

Onwards!
 

cheshiregreen

βœ… Evergreen
Jade Berrow 23/24
Feb 17, 2004
10,490
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cheshire
Posh run in includes

Away to Rotherham - March 30th
Away to Blackburn - April 19th
Away to Shrewsbury- April 24th.

Of course they also have a Home Park trip too.

Looking forward to another positive result at Charlton so we keep pressure on the teams around us.
 

pafcprogs

🌟 Pasoti Laureate 🌟
Apr 3, 2008
1,128
2,579
Westerham Kent
So another week of midweek matches and what have we learned

Sheridan does what he does, so Fleetwood are now hard to beat ( and watch) and the mini Rochdale revival seems to come to a juddering halt.

Wigans games in hand are slowly unravelling and with Shrewsbury only drawing at Northampton the top three is starting to feel like Wigan Blackburn Shrews....

Rotherham halted their slump but with a game to come down here and Peterborough at home next week they aren't as uncatchable as they once were....

The Scunthorpe car crash continues now no win in seven, and the Evans bounce at Peterborough is , for the moment , on hold.

And so to the weekend....

After our somewhat scrappy three points to hole Rovers below the waterline lets hope that they recover and the football gods even things out for them at Peterborough. Mind you after suggesting on their site in a poll for the best centre back combination they should go for the one that wouldn't lose three goals and two penalties in a game and being told to go and troll Charlton ( like they need help in that , they are the best self trolling team around right now) I think the answer to my question Toosoon? was probably yes....

The top three all play relegation fodder , as do Scunny at home to Rochdale which gives them a chance to get back up and running....but there will be at least one shock scoreline so lets hope it is there ( but I don't think it will be)

Bradford take on Gillingham in the battle of the also rans, although Gillingham along with Bradford and Charlton remain with that pesky game in hand....so a draw would be handy, although I would probably back Grayson to prove he is not a League one manager...looks like League 2 might be his true level now

Rotherham also have a tricky trip to Sarfend and thats where my tip for play off points dropped goes this week. Hopefully all three but a draw looks favourite.

As for Charlton, club in chaos, several players out injured, two on international duty, possible keeper injury/loan keeper/ and we have form and a huge following going. What could possibly go wrong?

Ok so they have a new manager ( albeit probably only temporarily as if their Australian consortium take over here comes Harry Kewell and indeed potentially if Bowyer lamps his assistant for not passing him the water bottle when he asks for it). Bizarrely given the near suicidal notes of doom posted elsewhere apparently they have anticipation of a big crowd due to a) us, b) giving loads away to school kids and c) the possibility that the takeover is nigh and with Robinson gone some of the faithful may return.

I am going to be controversial and suggest a point here would be OK. But that may just be because I am attending from Kent for the first time this season and as I am recovering from a heart attack in January a nice quiet 1-1 would be the safest option for me.

DA has done the right thing and tried to damp down expectations and pressure but all this media interest ( Metro, Soccer Saturday Football Focus Clinton Morrison mangling vowels to say nice things) just has me wondering how we deal with it when the inevitable bubble bursts and we actually lose another game.....

Sunday sees that most obvious of promotion games Portsmouth V Oxford on Sky...and after all the hype of Gerrard v Goran Eriksson v Kluivert we see how the U's cope with the slightly underwhelming Tarbuck of the EFL's arrival. I for one will be cheering him on as he was good entertainment when I met him at Stevenage last season and hugely complimentary about Carey, saying he'd love him but couldn't afford him. And it will pee off Pompey.

COYG
 

pafcprogs

🌟 Pasoti Laureate 🌟
Apr 3, 2008
1,128
2,579
Westerham Kent
Or in this case two given that is is Easter.

So the run comes to an end, typically as I was there....I have no fond feelings for the Valley having now seen three defeats there.....and the new manager bounce means that with Pompey & Bradford winning and Rotherham, Scunny and Peterborough all dropping points everything has closed up a little.

It seems ridiculous that anyone down to 12th can still calculate a path to the play offs and so a good Easter would be the perfect way of clarifying.

Scunny have a maximum of 80 points so if they drop points against Oxford and us their maximum could be as low as 74 by the end of the mini holiday. Lets hope so anyway.

We obviously need to bounce back against Southend, probably the neediest of the wannabes contenders points wise, and with our fairly horrid track record at Scunthorpe a draw and a win would be an OK return from the weekend.

Pompey probably have a maximum of three points given they have Wigan at home. The return of Pitman is a boon for them and Jamal Lowe looks dangerous but they were under the cosh until the penalty/sending off v Oxford so a Walsall win/draw would not be impossible....

Rotherham v Peterborough is a key game ( draw or home win please) and with a trip to the resurgent(ish) Valley I think we are all closet Millers this weekend.

Northampton seem capable of nicking points and need to so lets hope for a swift dead cat style bounce to Lee Bowyers confident assertion the are play off bound...and a similar stab to heart of the Posh although that seems much less likely on Monday

Bradford are at Blackburn tonight ....so that should deflate their balloon although Mulgrew might be a bit tired after hauling himself round Europe, and Gillingham need to beat MKD to keep their faint hopes alive also. I'd expect City to despatch walsall on Monday though.

Once the Easter dust has settled we can then see how critical the following weekend will be v Posh.....assuming we dispatch Sarfend will we be up against the revolving Daws or will Schteeve McClaren be pitting his wits against our Derek for the Iron.

Scunny must be able to afford him, having just lost Β£3.4 million in the last twelve months ( on top of a couple of million lost the year before....) Whatever happened to Financial Fair Play?
 
Oct 31, 2015
5,151
2,441
Southend have only lost 1 in 10 so "dispatching" them is NOT a foregone conclusion particularly how we have played the last couple of games without Sonny (still recovering from the worlds biggest hangover allegedly) and Sarcs in the team.

As the title suggests one game at a time. No easy games at this point of the season and southend are on as good run as us