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 Post subject: Re: Government Brexit Proposal & DD Resignation
PostPosted: Sun Feb 10, 2019 11:47 pm 

Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2015 3:30 am
Location: Tauranga NZ
The reason I said leave it to the Irish @ UK governments is precisely that they understand the Good Friday agreement better that any EU person. With Ireland coming out of the dark ages and obtaining international business due to Brexit, it will not want to see that
Disappear due to terrorist action. This also applies to NI, the peace dividend brings new thinking all round and very few will be willing to chuck it away, when it was signed the old grievances were very much the main driver..
We have to have a mindset that suits living in todays times, and there lies the the main issue of today that technology,lifestyle is changing so fast, people have difficulty adapting to it. The Good Friday Agreement, EU principals and definitely the US constitution all need to be revisited.

CJH


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 Post subject: Re: Government Brexit Proposal & DD Resignation
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:35 am 
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Joined: Tue Jan 20, 2004 4:43 pm
What has not been mentioned in this whole Irish border situation is the compared independent economies of the two, North and South.

The budget defecit of the South is only 1% and predictions indicate it is a fast growing economy. The North has a budget defecit of 22% and is heavily subsidised by the rest of the UK currently to the tune of £9 billion a year.

Northern Ireland will become a hot potato for both UK and Eire governments and after Brexit the question of UK tax payers finding the money to subsidise it will become more and more prominent.

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 Post subject: Re: Government Brexit Proposal & DD Resignation
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:19 am 
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UK have always subsidised northern Ireland and would continue to do so whether in or out. Whilst Eire at the present moment are growing at 1 per cent they have already applied to Europe for 100s millions of euros subsidy in the case of a hard Brexit stating that there trade will be decimated and would cause them to go into recession. Although at the present moment they are stating that Europe as a whole is going into recession


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 Post subject: Re: Government Brexit Proposal & DD Resignation
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:28 pm 
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signalspast wrote:
UK have always subsidised northern Ireland and would continue to do so whether in or out. Whilst Eire at the present moment are growing at 1 per cent they have already applied to Europe for 100s millions of euros subsidy in the case of a hard Brexit stating that there trade will be decimated and would cause them to go into recession. Although at the present moment they are stating that Europe as a whole is going into recession

If we have a hard Brexit ....... we'll be dreaming of such a 'recession'.

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 Post subject: Re: Government Brexit Proposal & DD Resignation
PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 12:05 am 
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My point exactly. Even if we avoid a no deal but proceed with anything harder than a customs union, the most ardent brexiteers admit we are going to experience economic hardship until a white knight from some far off corner of the world comes charging over the hill to save us with a new deal.

Europe, and Irelands agricultural industry especially, will be hit hard by recession if we have a hard Brexit, but the UK will be hit harder as we have not yet set up any alternatives. Dublin and Cork have recently experienced a massive increase in financial and blue chip investment from elsewhere in the world anticipating replacing UK cities as the english speaking gateway to the EU.

We may have subsidised NI for many years but we will find it harder to do so if our economy contracts, and as has been predicted the possibilty of NI voting to unite with the South and stay in the EU becomes more likely.

I would prefer us to stay fully in the EU, but at least a customs union would not risk the break up of the UK and would avoid the economic car crash we are heading for.

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 Post subject: Re: Government Brexit Proposal & DD Resignation
PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:11 am 

Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2017 5:19 am
While a shrinking economy is a bad thing and will produce a hardship can we just be honest about its size and scope? I’m not saying there will be no negative effect, there most certainly will.

If it was at the very most extreme, it is about 15% of our Economy that is at risk (15% has been the average for the last decade) [source: fullfact.org] That’s the car crash you talk about. And it is a big figure, but that means at very worst, and this is ZERO TRADE EVER AFTER BREXIT WITH EU, we will have 85% of our current economy. Do you honestly see us doing zero trade with E.U. when we leave? Well as the UK has shown it has signed a continuity agreement with Switzerland already. Can the rest be picked up immediately by the RoW? No. I don’t think so. We have only signed mutual recognition deals with NZ and Oz so far. However, I firmly believe over the next decade trade deals with other countries will surpass that 15% lost by trading under the E.U. rules and to the E.U. market freely.

Since 1999 the UKs exports to the E.U. have been decreasing, while it’s exports to the RoW have been increasing. This is before you even attempt to figure out the Rotterdam Effect on UK exports.


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 Post subject: Re: Government Brexit Proposal & DD Resignation
PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 7:09 pm 
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Isondil: I think you characterise what annoys me so much about people who support/accept no deal. Flippantly talking about the impact of a "shrinking economy" and a bit of "hardship" as if it's a slight bother

These are peoples livelihoods we are talking about. Their sole means to support their families. A lot of people are one paycheck away from poverty.

Have a bit of respect yeah?


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 Post subject: Re: Government Brexit Proposal & DD Resignation
PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 8:50 pm 

Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2010 9:56 am
evil_dave86 wrote:
Isondil: I think you characterise what annoys me so much about people who support/accept no deal. Flippantly talking about the impact of a "shrinking economy" and a bit of "hardship" as if it's a slight bother

These are peoples livelihoods we are talking about. Their sole means to support their families. A lot of people are one paycheck away from poverty.

Have a bit of respect yeah?


Dead right, , you will notice that all the politicians, and some business leaders, like that idiot who runs Weatherspoons, who like ‘no deal’, are very well off,

And the disaster of Brexit, will not effect them.


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 Post subject: Re: Government Brexit Proposal & DD Resignation
PostPosted: Tue Feb 12, 2019 9:37 pm 
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Martyn wrote:
evil_dave86 wrote:
Isondil: I think you characterise what annoys me so much about people who support/accept no deal. Flippantly talking about the impact of a "shrinking economy" and a bit of "hardship" as if it's a slight bother

These are peoples livelihoods we are talking about. Their sole means to support their families. A lot of people are one paycheck away from poverty.

Have a bit of respect yeah?


Dead right, , you will notice that all the politicians, and some business leaders, like that idiot who runs Weatherspoons, who like ‘no deal’, are very well off,

And the disaster of Brexit, will not effect them.

It's more than that though.........Much more than just rich, xenophobic idiots.......... It is a hardline right wing dream to turn the UK into the Singapore of Europe. A low tax, low wage, totally deregulated economy that isn't burdened with things like workers rights, human rights, animal rights, any 'rights', minimum wage, contracts of employment, environmental laws etc. etc....

Here .....this describes EXACTLY what the right wingers of the ERG want:-
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/br ... 35226.html

The EU fear this. They fear the impact of such a place on their doorstep would have on them - under-cutting them, sucking in investment from the mega-multi nationals because that's the only way we could attract them......... creating a race to the bottom. That's why they are so determined to protect their single market and stop us cherry-picking their many benefits while we simultaneously undercut them by having none of the responsibilities of a civilised, liberal, democratic society.

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 Post subject: Re: Government Brexit Proposal & DD Resignation
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 3:06 am 

Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2015 3:30 am
Location: Tauranga NZ
The trouble is that all the speculation throughout this forum is based on uncertified data for the Brexit option, with the only reasonably firm set of consequences being remain. There we are heading down the track with a high risk rating of a lower financial economy, with no alternative plan in place.

Sorry we made a deal with a freight company to run a ferry service to Belgium, then found out they had no ships!

CJH


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 Post subject: Re: Government Brexit Proposal & DD Resignation
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:53 am 
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If the consequences weren't so serious it would be be a comedy.

It just sums up the whole leave approach.

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 Post subject: Re: Government Brexit Proposal & DD Resignation
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 9:28 am 
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Ken Clarke asked this superb question at PMQ’s yesterday (described as a ‘zinger’ in the Times). It sums up in a nutshell the absolute, mind-boggling stupidity of Brexit. The answer? There was no answer ….THERE IS NO ANSWER.

"My right hon. Friend will recall that, when we served together in the Cabinet, the coalition Government were very enthusiastic about the prospect of negotiating EU trade deals with important trading partners around the world, including the prospect of a trade deal with Japan.

The Japan deal was concluded on 1 February, and I think it covers a bigger proportion of the global economy than any trade deal negotiated so far. Does the Prime Minister aim to seek a customs arrangement that enables us to continue to enjoy, or to begin to get, the benefits of this important deal after 29 March?

....... or is she insisting that we have to leave it and have our own trade policy, and begin our own negotiations again with a country that has a much bigger economy than our own - and is likely to demand concessions from the United Kingdom that it was not able to demand from the European Union?"

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 Post subject: Re: Government Brexit Proposal & DD Resignation
PostPosted: Wed Feb 13, 2019 11:35 am 

Joined: Sat Sep 25, 2010 9:56 am
Ave_IT wrote:
Ken Clarke asked this superb question at PMQ’s yesterday (described as a ‘zinger’ in the Times). It sums up in a nutshell the absolute, mind-boggling stupidity of Brexit. The answer? There was no answer ….THERE IS NO ANSWER.

"My right hon. Friend will recall that, when we served together in the Cabinet, the coalition Government were very enthusiastic about the prospect of negotiating EU trade deals with important trading partners around the world, including the prospect of a trade deal with Japan.

The Japan deal was concluded on 1 February, and I think it covers a bigger proportion of the global economy than any trade deal negotiated so far. Does the Prime Minister aim to seek a customs arrangement that enables us to continue to enjoy, or to begin to get, the benefits of this important deal after 29 March?

....... or is she insisting that we have to leave it and have our own trade policy, and begin our own negotiations again with a country that has a much bigger economy than our own - and is likely to demand concessions from the United Kingdom that it was not able to demand from the European Union?"


Have you noticed that she never ever, ever answers a question properly.


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