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 Post subject: Re: Post EU Vote
PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2017 12:44 pm 
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gandalf_the_green wrote:

I was under the impression that the rights of EU workers in the UK went hand in hand with the rights of British workers in the EU.You cannot in all honestly agree to one without the same time agreeing to the other.


But if you read what was apparently said at "that dinner" last week by Theresa May, she is claimed to have said that EU workers would have the same rights as any other non-EU worker in the UK, and it was pointed out that this was problematic as EU workers currently have more rights than their non-EU counterparts. How can you take those rights away and then take away rights from British citizens working and living in France, Germany, Italy, etc etc.?

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 Post subject: Re: Post EU Vote
PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2017 12:50 pm 
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gandalf_the_green wrote:
Quinny wrote:
What people keep forgetting that, under the terms of Article 50, it is the other member states, not the one leaving, which determines the basis for trade negotiations (we should know that: we helped draft it). The EU have done that: no trade deal until the rights of EU workers in the UK are protected, and we've honour our payment commitments.[/quote

I was under the impression that the rights of EU workers in the UK went hand in hand with the rights of British workers in the EU.You cannot in all honestly agree to one without the same time agreeing to the other.

https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck ... rom-the-eu

There is no doubt that we do owe a substantial sum of money. How much is certainly up for debate as the above ‘fact check’ link shows and from this seems £50 billion at the top end – the final sum and how and when it’s paid bound to be the first of many difficult stand-offs. Maybe we end up paying ’only’ £20 billion?

Funny how this wasn't plastered on the side of that F***ing bus that Boris and co. were riding during the campaign though isn’t it? The EU certainly appears to have all their 27 ducks in a row on this and are quite adamant about not even beginning to talk about trade until we agree. The clock is ticking for us not them – if we fall back on to WTO standards with no deal (a distinct possibility) then watch the pound take another dive and that Brexit divorce bill will soar – not to mention the massive hit on the economy.


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 Post subject: Re: Post EU Vote
PostPosted: Tue May 02, 2017 12:57 pm 
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gandalf_the_green wrote:
Representatives from the House of Commons and the lords have said that there is a strong case that we are not obliged to pay a the divorce payment.


TBF they were bound to take that position, and if they stick to it then it could well end up in the Hague to sort out. But the commitments Cameron promised covers a number of items including outstanding "bills" (for want of a better expression) going back several years (which we would be expected to honour), pensions for ex-EU officials (including British), contingency liabilites, etc

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It is quite possible that a payment may be handed over,what you don't do is just say ok EU you name a figure and we will pay it.Also it is likely that we are owed money from the EU.


Absolutely! But I seriously doubt it'll dwarf the amount we've committed to pay.

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There is going to be some hardball going on between us and them,what we need is our representatives is to put forward the UKs best interests and I think the Tories will do it better than Corbyn or anybody else.


I agree that I can't see Corbyn playing hardball ... but then I wouldn't expect them to, nor Tim Farron, as they'd take a much more diplomatic, softer approach to the proceedings than May/Davies. And to be honest I have very little confidence in Theresa May doing anything other than phuqing the whole lot up.

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 Post subject: Re: Post EU Vote
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 7:54 am 
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Negotiation:

Is a dialogue between two or more people or parties to reach a beneficial outcome over one or more issues where a conflict of interest exists with respect to at least one of these issues.

Distributive negotiation:
A type of negotiation where basically there is a reluctance to compromise on any issues.

Integrative negotiation:
A type of negotiation where is often a higher degree of trust between the parties and where there is a stronger will to compromise for the overall benefit of both parties involved.

Research shows that people who concede in the negotiations more quickly are less likely to explore further beneficial solutions and therefore conceding early reduces the chances of a better solution for that party.

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 Post subject: Re: Post EU Vote
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 10:30 am 
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I've just re-read that "bloody difficult woman" bit by Theresa May yesterday and I've suddenly realised she thinks she's going to be the chief negotiator for the UK. That's David Davis' job: she's got her hands full with her current day-job being PM to spend a week a month in Europe negotiating with the EU commission (not with the respective leaders of each EU nation as she mistakenly also said). Either she doesn't understand how the negotiations are going to work (in which case she's got a couple of weeks to learn), or she doesn't trust David Davis ... in which case replacing him after the General Election in the expected cabinet reshuffle would be a good idea, rather than thinking she can commit the time to negotiate on behalf of the country.

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 Post subject: Re: Post EU Vote
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 10:57 am 
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I'm sure that Davis will be briefed and be in discussion with other government persons including the prime minister before he carries out his duties as chief negotiator.

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 Post subject: Re: Post EU Vote
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 11:14 am 

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I would argue that neither will be chief negotiator in fact, but only as a figurehead - though they will of course need to sign off on decisions made. The chief negotiator role will truly be fulfilled from an advisory pool of consultants, legal experts and civil servants - those that understand the machinations of the EU and are well paid to do so.


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 Post subject: Re: Post EU Vote
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 5:04 pm 
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CJH wrote:
The comment by the EU team after last weeks Downing Street dinner, that the two sides were "Galaxies Apart in their understanding of the complexities of any withdrawal" should send shivers down the spine of all of us. It can only mean that the final result will be long drawn out and not to the UK's advantage.

CJH


Surely, everyone knows by now that any good dinner party is spoiled the moment that the topic of Brexit is raised? I think that, for future dinner parties, they should agree not to talk about Brexit or politics and keep the conversation to less contentious issues like the weather or Line of Duty.

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 Post subject: Re: Post EU Vote
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 9:12 pm 
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Well it is fair that we pay what we have signed up to pay for. The Europeans side are saying they don't want to punish us but for us just to pay what we agreed to pay up until 2020. That seems fair. So if there was no brexit our net contribution per year would be around 8.5 billion with brexit talks lasting at least two years it will take us up to 2019. That would leave a bill of 8.5 billion owing going on our annual net contributions. Then there is the argument that our economy is going to collapse after we leave so that would bring our annual bill to Europe down between 2019 and 2020 if the experts opinions are right then the exit bill should be less than 8.5 billion.


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 Post subject: Re: Post EU Vote
PostPosted: Wed May 03, 2017 9:23 pm 
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Frank_Butcher wrote:
I would argue that neither will be chief negotiator in fact, but only as a figurehead - though they will of course need to sign off on decisions made. The chief negotiator role will truly be fulfilled from an advisory pool of consultants, legal experts and civil servants - those that understand the machinations of the EU and are well paid to do so.

No I think you're massively overstating things to call May & Davis "figureheads". They can't just dial up some super skilled negotiator team, 'Brexit-R-US', to sort out this horrendously complicated mess we've chosen to get ourselves wrapped up in.

Who are these people you speak of? Sir Ivan Rogers who was THE most widely respected & experienced EU negotiator resigned in frustration so Tim Barrow, a career diplomat was hurriedly promoted. Then there is Olly Robins, Blair's private secretary (very highly rated apparently) who will also be in the thick of it. Experienced diplomats & civil servants will certainly help, legal advice on specific items can be sought but there are no 'consultants' to waltz in and sort out the nitty-gritty and allow Theresa to read the executive summary then simply sign it off. I wish it were true Framk - but let's not kid ourselves it's principally May and her three amigos who will be driving this thing :facepalm:


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 Post subject: Re: Post EU Vote
PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 11:29 am 
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Wow! Here's a fascinating read - and no, it's not just me selecting something to support my rampant remoaner point of view - in fact it could be used by the Brexiteers amongst your to support your reasons for leaving.

It's an article by Yanis Varoufakis in the Guardian (the charismatic former Greek finance minister who was involved with the crisis talks with Brussels) about what we can expect from the EU's negotiating tactics. He is a fascinating character who clearly despises much about the EU and whatever your point of view I reckon HE would be someone we could definitely use on our team trying to negotiate a deal. The final section in particular makes complete sense to me ......

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... heresa-may


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 Post subject: Re: Post EU Vote
PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 8:52 am 

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Quinny wrote:
Also, Frank, if you read the top of that article linked, plus look at the latest stats, yesterday's results show that Right to Leave stood at 43% and Wrong to Leave at 45%.


Just to reinforce the point that it's the long term average that counts, this week's outcome is:
'46% think it’s right to leave, 43% wrong to leave'


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 Post subject: Re: Post EU Vote
PostPosted: Fri May 05, 2017 11:48 am 
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Ave_IT wrote:
Wow! Here's a fascinating read - and no, it's not just me selecting something to support my rampant remoaner point of view - in fact it could be used by the Brexiteers amongst your to support your reasons for leaving.

It's an article by Yanis Varoufakis in the Guardian (the charismatic former Greek finance minister who was involved with the crisis talks with Brussels) about what we can expect from the EU's negotiating tactics. He is a fascinating character who clearly despises much about the EU and whatever your point of view I reckon HE would be someone we could definitely use on our team trying to negotiate a deal. The final section in particular makes complete sense to me ......

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... heresa-may


The final section suggesting the Norway option to me is a bad idea,as far I understand that option would still include freedom of movement which was voted against by the majority in the referendum.It would also mean that the UK would have no veto on any decisions by the EU.Also the UK would still have to pay money to the EU even in this reduced style of membership.

I agree Mr Varoufakis would be very useful in our negotiating team.


Talking about the EU Hierarchy Varoufakis says:
For all their concerns with rules,treaties,processes,competiveness,freedom of movement,terrorism etc,only one prospect truly terrifies them:Democracy.

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